Welcome to Foreign Policy‘s South Asia Brief.
Highlights this week: India’s Movement of beetles to end the protests after the minister of education resigned, riots broke out near the elections Pakistan-administered Kashmirand resignation of President of Bangladesh it leaves few allies of former Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina in the government.
Modi Accepts Protest Demands
The protest campaign led by the Cockroach Janta Party—one of the largest such movements in the 12 years of Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi—reached conclusion at the end of the week after the government agreed to some of the protesters’ demands. However, while the crisis is over, it has arguably left Modi more politically vulnerable than ever.
The Cockroach movement is one of the few that has come out strongly against Modi and his Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) government. It revealed the level of anger many young people have towards a leader and a party that has built on their massive popularity and won three consecutive national elections. The protestors’ words were anger and sometimes impurity.
This also marks one of the few times that the Modi government has committed itself to a local rival. The only other example of such a large agreement was when New Delhi he left agrarian reforms that led to massive farmers’ protests in 2020-21. Modi is seen as a tough leader who does not make UU turns or admit mistakes, even medium go back. This image of unwavering stability has been reduced.
The resignation of Education Minister Dharmendra Pradhan, a key demand of the protesters, deals a major blow to Modi, though. Pradhan is a prominent person who is very close to the prime minister. The government prides itself on stability, and its ministers have largely remained the same since 2018. Pradhan’s departure upsets that.
Moreover, the Mende movement raised the government online – a field that Modi and the BJP have dominated, a force that helped the party. safe when the important youth vote came to power in 2014. But the Cockroach Janta Party, which started out as a joke, is an online house, gathering millions of followers and gaining massive support through. memes.
Of course, youth-led change movements often use the Internet to their advantage. But the Cockroach Janta Party’s success is significant because it seemed to beat the BJP at its own game.
The Mende Protest campaign could have a major impact on other civil movements in India. It has already released a copy: A new group called E20 Janta Party is insults against fuel mixed with ethanol and demanding the resignation of India’s Transport Minister Nitin Gadkari. Farmers too was launched new protests over the proposed US-India trade agreement.
Unlike during his first two terms, Modi now rules with a coalition. In a worst-case scenario, one of his key coalition partners may conclude that public pressure and opposition make the administration too vulnerable to withdraw. But in the end, that is unlikely—Modi is resilient. (I have explained like a “teflon” politician.)
Still, the Cockroach movement has done a number on the Modi government – and, ironically, it has done so a few weeks after the BJP. he closed a series of victories in state elections. A key signal awaits early next year, when the BJP’s stronghold of Uttar Pradesh—India’s most populous state and biggest electoral prize—holds elections.
If the impact of the Cockroach Janta Party is strong enough to hurt the BJP in the crucial state elections, that will be a major concern for New Delhi.
What we’re after
Violence in Pakistan-administered Kashmir. Security forces opened fire on protesters on Monday during the first phase of voting in the parliamentary elections in Pakistan-administered Kashmir. At least 20 people they were killed. Local leaders have given a different version of what sparked the violence, accusing armed protesters of opening fire on security forces at polling stations.
This comes after at least 40 people were killed in unrest in Pakistan-administered Kashmir ahead of last month’s election. In an effort to reduce the violence, local authorities suspended telephone and internet services. The region has been volatile for months, with residents expressing anger over issues ranging from food costs to government repression.
One of the main actors in the conflict is the Joint Awami Committee (JAAC), which has he demanded the abolition of several seats in the local parliament that have been reserved for those who fled Indian-administered Kashmir. JAAC claims that Pakistani politicians are using the seats for their personal interests.
The local government has the suspect JAAC for attempting to sabotage the election and ban the group under anti-terrorism laws. Most of the deaths this week were is reported caused by security forces firing on JAAC supporters trying to march to the regional capital, Muzaffarabad. The violence is a sad reminder that the challenges in Kashmir are more than territorial disputes.
The President of Bangladesh should resign. Bangladesh President Mohammed Shahabuddin has been submitted his resignation on Friday, citing health reasons for leaving nearly two years before his term was up. According to the constitution, the speaker of parliament will serve as president until he is indirectly elected, which must happen within 90 days of his resignation.
In Bangladesh’s parliamentary system, the presidency is a ceremonial role. But Shahabuddin’s resignation is significant because he was one of former Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina’s few remaining allies in the government—now led by the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP), her arch-rival Awami League. Hasina was ousted amid massive protests in August 2024.
Not surprisingly, the resignation has been mired in controversy. Local media information that Shahabuddin was pressured by the BNP government to resign after Shahabuddin spoke to the former prime minister over the phone in May. The government has said little, and Shahabuddin himself rejected claims that he resigned under pressure.
Engaging in revenge politics would be a troubling sign for the BNP government, which took power in February. Prime Minister of Bangladesh Tarique Rahman has served he insisted the importance of political reconciliation and unity, and his government has shown less hatred against Hasina and the Awami League than the previous administration.
Increasing public health crises. In Pakistan as well as Sri Lanka and Bangladesh, epidemics of HIV and dengue fever, respectively, are worsening. Hospital in Sindh province in Pakistan information at least 10 new HIV cases this week. This comes after other hospitals reported new cases, including another in Sindh which reported this month that 78 children at the facility were infected.
Sri Lanka, meanwhile, has reported 79,000 dengue cases this year, including more than 23,000 so far this month. Finally, on 23 July, the government of Bangladesh information 450 new cases of dengue fever in a 24-hour period—bringing the number in July to just under 6,000 new cases, nearly 50 percent of this year’s total.
Specific factors in each country—poor care of needles and blood in Pakistan and a cyclone that increased mosquito breeding in Sri Lanka—have been cited for the increase. But these countries also face financial challenges that have hindered efforts to improve public health.
Pakistan and Sri Lanka have two of the most vulnerable economies in South Asia. They face macroeconomic stability but are only a few years removed from debt default (Sri Lanka) and near-default (Pakistan).
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Under the Radar
This week, Maldivian President Mohamed Muizzu he announced that starting next year, his government will give an annual award to people and organizations that make a significant contribution to preventing tobacco use—adding to its already existing anti-smoking policies.
In November, the Maldives he announced a complete ban on tobacco for anyone born in or after 2007—including buying, selling or using the substance. It is the only country in the world to have that generation ban; New Zealand did at one point, but it was canceled in 2023.
Anti-tobacco policies are gaining momentum in South Asia, where smoking rates remain high despite declining in recent years. According to the World Bank, almost a quarter of adults in the region-and about 40 percent of men-use tobacco. (That suggests that the Maldives ban may be overlooking an important population.)
The tobacco ban, which also prohibits the use of electronic cigarettes and vapor, extends to tourists, too. So, the Maldives is gambling. Tourism revenue is important to the economy, so it will not want to discourage visitors.
