There was an alternative plan to get oil from the Middle East. We may need another.
- After keeping quiet for much of the Iran war, Yemen’s Houthi rebels launched a major escalation last week with attacks on Saudi oil tankers and oil infrastructure, threatening to return to a campaign against Red Sea shipping last seen during the Gaza war in 2023 and 2024.
- The “double strangulation” of Middle Eastern energy has been one of the worst events of the Iran war. With traffic through the Strait of Hormuz at a standstill, Saudi Arabia has significantly increased the amount of oil it ships through the Red Sea – one of the main reasons why oil prices have not risen as many had expected during the conflict.
- Although they are allies of Iran, the Houthis have their own agenda and say their campaign is aimed specifically at Saudi Arabia, but there is a real risk it could expand, testing the ability of the global energy industry to change.
On July 20, Yemen’s Iran-backed rebel movement known as the Houthis announced “restriction” against their longtime enemy Saudi Arabia, and shortly after attacked two Saudi oil tankers in the Red Sea. Shortly after, several ships carrying Saudi crude oil sailed through the Red Sea he made sudden U turns to avoid going near the coast of Yemen.
With Iran now blocking shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, the Red Sea was supposed to be an alternative route to get oil from the Middle East and to the world market. Now, however, the importance of the route has given new impetus to the long-running conflict between the Houthis and their longtime enemies in Saudi Arabia. These attacks were the main reason for pushing oil back $100 a barrel last week.
The Houthis have their own agenda somewhat unrelated to the Iran conflict. But in setting up the Iran conflict, the US has inadvertently given them greater influence in the region: The sea lanes they control are more important than ever. Now, in opening up new avenues, they may have made the war more difficult to end.
The Red Sea has become increasingly important to Saudi Arabia and energy markets as shippers have avoided Hormuz in recent months. Saudi Arabia has decreased by almost 70 percent of its oil sales through a a pipeline connecting oil fields in the Persian Gulf to the port of Yanbu on its Red Sea coast. This means that oil tankers need to use the Red Sea to get oil to Asia. As a result, the Red Sea now accounts for nearly 7 percent of the world’s energy supply.
This release valve is one reason why the price of oil – and the price of gas for American drivers – has did not rise like many experts It is expected when the Hormuz conflict started shortly after the US-Israeli attack on Iran.
But now, that release valve is also under threat, putting the region and the world in what shipping experts call “double-burned.”
The Houthis have used their territory to cause chaos before: In 2023 and 2024, they attacked more than 100 ships they accused of having ties to Israel, sinking ships through the Red Sea. The attacks stopped after Israel and Hamas signed a cease-fire last year, but shipping has yet to fully recover.
President Donald Trump has threatened the Houthis and Iran with “heavy military punishment“Due to the recent attacks.” And the attacks also make it possible that the Iran crisis could make oil prices more expensive than ever, increasing political pressure on Trump.
What do the Houthis want?
The Houthis are members of Iran’s network of regional allies, known as the “Axis of Resistance,” along with Hezbollah, Hamas, and a number of Iraqi militias. But many experts believe that although they rely on Iranian support, they operate independently and do not take their marching orders from Tehran.
Officially known as Ansar Allah, the Houthis are members of the minority Zaydi sect of Shia Islam. They have been fighting for control of Yemen since the 1990s and took Yemen’s capital, Sana’a, in 2014, although most countries do not recognize it as Yemen’s legitimate government.
The Houthis fought a brutal decade-long war against Yemen’s internationally recognized government and the international coalition led by Saudi Arabia, which ended with a UN-brokered ceasefire in 2022.
The Saudi-Houthi peace has largely lasted since then, even if the Houthis gained global notoriety during the Gaza war. When this year’s war began, many expected the Houthis to join the war against Iran’s enemies, the United States and Israel, but for the first few weeks of the conflict, they were very quiet. Their impact was felt in different ways, though.
Iran’s success in using drones and cheap missiles to close the Strait of Hormuz was actually based on the lessons learned from the Houthi campaign in the Red Sea in 2023 and 2024.
In March, the Houthis made their first move to fully join the Iran war when they launched a round of missiles in Israel. But things took a turn for the worse in mid-July when they began attacking Saudi Arabia in response attack at Sanaa airportsomething they blamed on the Saudis. (The earlier attack was claimed by Yemen’s internationally-backed government.)
In addition to the Red Sea attacks, the Houthis he also claimed assault at a Saudi oil refinery last Saturday, the group’s first attack on Saudi energy infrastructure since 2022, following attacks on oil depots on the coast of the Red Sea on Sunday. Several Iranian-backed militias in Iraq they also made their own attacks about Saudi Arabia in the last few days.
The Houthis have now entered the conflict, but it would be a mistake to see them as allies of Iran. They have their own demands and agendas in this war.
“When all the Iran wars started, they were watching and waiting for the right moment,” he said Mohammed al-Bashaa US-based security analyst and expert on Yemen. Basha suspects that the Houthis saw the power and concessions that Iran has gained throughout the region and wanted to use their own power. “Their hostility went from zero to 60 last week,” he said. “They’re all in.”
All for what, exactly? The Houthis’ demands from the Saudis include billions in ransom payments and full control of the coastline and airspace. In the long term, they aim to become an internationally recognized Yemeni government.
The Saudis, then, who fought a brutal and unpleasant war against the Houthis that ended in a stalemate, are faced with the unpleasant choice between keeping the group at bay or returning to war.
What about the United States? The US did more than 1,000 air strikes over 52 days against the Houthis in 2025. Although this campaign, known as Operation Rough Rider, caused significant damage to the group’s infrastructure, it did not succeed in fully restoring shipping in the Red Sea.
Trump has threatened retaliation, but expressed concern about it stockpile of weaponsthe ability of the United States to retaliate, let alone expand this war in a new way, is probably limited.
How much chocolate is too much?
At the moment, Bab el-Mandeb is not completely closed – transport is closed down about 22 percent since the blockade was announced, but 28 ships were able to cross the strait on Monday. The Houthis maintain that their blockade is aimed only at Saudi Arabia, but Chinese giant tanks they have been allowed to leave the Red Sea carrying Saudi oil.
But shippers remember that during the Houthis’ last Red Sea campaign in 2024, they were theoretically targeting ships connected to Israel, but they had very broad definition of “associated with Israel.” Under these circumstances, many shippers, and more importantly their insurers, may not want to take the risk.
“We’ve seen what the Houthis can do,” said Noam Raydan, an energy and maritime expert at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy. “We know that they can sink ships. We know that they can hit ships with drones, missiles, and then even board ships. We know that they can hijack ships. This is why most operators, in my opinion, would hesitate right now to go through Bab al-Mandab.”
There is still a risk that this new line in the war could escalate. The Iranian government has asked the Houthis to close Bab el-Mandeb completely The US launches airstrikes against Iran’s electricity grid, something Trump has repeatedly threatened to do.
This adds a complex new factor to the wider conflict in the Middle East. The fact that oil prices did not rise as many experts predicted during Operation Epic Fury, the initial strike in the summer and early summer, is perhaps one reason why Trump has been seen so often. ready to proceed conflict, rather than cutting a quick deal on Iran’s terms. But Saudi Arabia’s access to the Red Sea is one important reason why oil has not reached $120 or even $200 a barrel. The complete closure of Bab el-Mandeb would test even the world’s oil industry’s ability to constantly change.
It is possible that the Saudis may still cut a deal with the Houthis that will end the attacks. But it is also clear that for the foreseeable future, the two most important energy centers of the Middle East will be under constant threat of closure by the United States’ adversaries.
Currently, oil can still leave the Red Sea through the Suez Canal at its northern end, then to Asia near the southern tip of Africa. (Since the largest tankers cannot pass the Suez fully loaded, this is a difficult process which it involves pumping their fat in the pipe, then meet it at the other end of the Mediterranean.)
“It’s getting more complicated,” said Robin Mills, CEO of Dubai-based energy analytics firm Qamar Energy. “Can they get all the oil from Yanbu through Suez? I think they probably can but it’s a little bit tight. If (the Houthi campaign) were to expand, it becomes more of a problem.”
The Suez Canal itself is also a potential target for disruption or sabotage, retired US Adm. James Stavridis warned recently.
Marine disturbance will increase interest in remedial projects such as a proposed pipeline from Iraq to Turkeybypass the sea lanes completely, but these are still far away. The Houthis and their allies in Iraq also demonstrated this week that they can attack oil infrastructure and pipelines as well as ships.
The oil and transportation industry is nothing if not flexible. Previous disruptions, be it an oil tanker stuck in Suez in 2021 stacking of container ships caused by the Covid-19 pandemic, or the previous Houthis Red Sea campaign, has been temporary. The product finally finds its way to market, even if that means another month of traveling around Africa.
But as the number of armed conflicts increases, and actors like the Houthis and Iran learn how to best use global economic sanctions to punish bigger and more powerful opponents, the stress on the system increasesand the question becomes whether there is a breaking point.
