Nationals MPs are expecting a tough vote in today’s vote to replace David Littleproud as leader, with current deputy leader Kevin Hogan tipped to have the edge over Senator Matt Canavan.
Hogan’s supporters believe he has at least eight guaranteed votes heading into the 10 a.m. party room meeting to elect a new leader. Hogan’s supporters, led by Darren Chester and Pat Conaghan, include the same group of MPs who supported Littleproud: Sam Birrell, Jamie Chaffey, Anne Webster, Michelle Landry, Andrew Willcox and Littleproud himself.
Canavan’s support comes from the party’s most conservative MPs, including Colin Boyce, David Watt, and Lew O’Brien, as well as senators Ross Cadell and Susan McDonald.
Michael McCormack was thinking of running but is unlikely to do so. He is expected to support Canavan.
Bridget McKenzie will contest but is expected to finish third and support Canavan when the vote comes down to Littleproud vs. Hogan.
“There are one or two votes in it,” said one lawmaker.
The candidates will give speeches at a meeting in Parliament House on Wednesday, and Canavan, who has done has been taking the struggle to One Nation on migration and energy for months, he can move some soft votes towards him is he inspires colleagues. Some members of parliament are not happy with the senator leading the party because the leaders usually come from the House of Representatives.
Littleproud surprised almost all his colleagues at the time he left after Question Time on Tuesday.
Only Hogan, Littleproud’s loyal deputy who had previously never been seen as a strong and motivated candidate to lead the party, was told in advance. Hogan was told of Littleproud’s decision earlier Tuesday.
One lawmaker said the decision to tell Hogan early and vote the morning after Littleproud’s phone call appeared designed to give Hogan the best chance of winning.
More to come.
Paul Sakkal is a major political writer. He previously covered Victorian politics and has won Walkley and Quill awards. Reach him safely on Waves @paulsakkal.14Connect through X or email address.
