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We are now more than five weeks into the unpopularity of President Donald Trump and seems an unprovoked war and Iran, and Any decisive “victory” still seems far off. The US and Israel have dominated the battlefield since the beginning. But Iran managed to create an economic crisis with a gunfight: By closing the Strait of Hormuz, a major driver in the international energy trade, it increased. the price of oilfertilizer, and other products and led to rationing and curfews in dozens of countries. A gallon of gas now tops $4, on average, in the United States.
Trump has veered from one path to another as he struggles to resolve this thorny situation. First he tried to suggest that the closing of the Door was not really a problem not at all. When that failed, he said other countries will handle it. On Sunday morning, he took a very, er, difference wisdom: “Open the Fuckin Strait, you crazy bastards, or you’ll be living in Hell,” he posted on Social Reality, where he threatened to blow up Iranian plants and bridges.
The thing about Trump’s threats is that he often doesn’t follow through on them. Online commentators have even coined an acronym for this: TACO, or “Trump never impresses.” Did Trump it is not however, the US can bomb 93 million civilians”back to the Stone Age” in a matter of hours.
But let’s support it. Why is the US in Iran to begin with?
The US and Israel launched a surprise attack on Iran on February 28. Trump claimed differently the strikes were intended to remove an “imminent threat,” to prevent Iran from developing a nuclear weapon, and/or to remove the oppressive, theocratic regime that has ruled the country for generations.
You can generously assume that, in pursuing multiple and often conflicting goals, Trump is taking the many-birds-with-one-stone approach. But like NPR’s Liasson of Mara put it on mondayit sure looks like he’s making up the strategy “as he goes along.”
The Iranians, on the other hand, have been very strategic. Using a large supply of small, cheap dronesThe regime has brought a struggle (asymmetric) to the United States and Israel, forcing both countries to end their supply of expensive interceptor missiles.
They also weaponized the geography of the country by blocking the Strait of Hormuz, a waterway that many – dare they say more? – Americans could not name or place before last month. Reopening the Strait is now the primary goal of military action, and the Trump administration seems to understand that the war will be seen as a loss to the US unless/until it reopens.
What will convince Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz?
That is 200 billion dollars the question. At times, Trump has seemed determined to end the problem by insisting it doesn’t exist. Just last week, he claimed that the Strait would “open normally” after the conflict ended and said other countries that depend on Gulf oil should take responsibility for getting tankers back on board.
At other times, Trump has taken a completely different approach — threatening to escalate the strike faster and harder if Iran doesn’t reopen the Straits. In each instance, however, he has given the Iranian regime a deadline…and then a delay. And late.
On March 21, he threatened to “wipe out” Iran’s power plants if the Straits were not opened within 48 hours. He then expanded schedule until March 26 to allow for negotiations.
On March 26, Trump again extended deadline, this time until the evening of April 6. On April 5, he bumped it up to 8pm Eastern today, April 7. He also threw a couple insults to mark it. he meant business.
How serious are Trump’s threats?
If you mean “serious” like “loyalty” or “possible,” we don’t have a clue. And probably reasonable people can disagree about whether swearing makes you sound more or less important.
But in terms of how important or dire these threats are, the answer is: weird. International law allows military attacks on power plants and similar infrastructure only if they contribute to military operations. Widespread strikes on civilian targets are possible”illegal and unacceptable,” as one senior EU official says.
The US and Israeli attacks have already taken place killing 1,500 civilians and badly damaged infrastructure in Iran, including highway bridges, energy and industrial sites, residential neighborhoods and school campuses. These new threats would go even further, disrupting electricity, healthcare, clean water and other essential services for millions of Iranians.
The United States and Iran have rejected the cease-fire proposal which would halt the fighting for 45 days and pave the way for reopening the Straits. In the absence of that kind of negotiated crossroad, we have an additional, uncertain calculation…and Trump’s Social Feed of Truth.
