As a two-week ceasefire between the US and Iran began last week, Europeans rushed to meet allies in the Persian Gulf conflict to find ways to secure the Strait of Hormuz. British Prime Minister Keir Starmer flew to Qatar and the United Arab Emirates, while the European Union’s top diplomat, Kaja Kallas, arrived in Saudi Arabia and later visited Abu Dhabi.
“Our governments will contribute to ensuring freedom of navigation in the Strait of Hormuz,” he noted. statement signed by representatives of several European countries including Australia, Japan, and Canada. However, the statement did not specify what these contributions might be.
As a two-week ceasefire between the US and Iran began last week, Europeans rushed to meet allies in the Persian Gulf conflict to find ways to secure the Strait of Hormuz. British Prime Minister Keir Starmer flew to Qatar and the United Arab Emirates, while the European Union’s top diplomat, Kaja Kallas, arrived in Saudi Arabia and later visited Abu Dhabi.
“Our governments will contribute to ensuring freedom of navigation in the Strait of Hormuz,” he noted. statement signed by representatives of several European countries including Australia, Japan, and Canada. However, the statement did not specify what these contributions might be.
The Europeans are trying to gauge the Gulf’s prospects and build consensus on a more sustainable way to protect the sea even as they fear the ceasefire could be fragile. At the end of the week, the talks held between the United States and Iran failed to reach an agreement. US President Donald Trump later told Fox News that the US would close Iran’s ports – to ensure that Iran could not charge a fee to a ship that allows passage. But whether Trump’s goal was to help secure the world’s energy supply or undermine Iran’s diplomatic power, his planned blockade seemed likely to accomplish the opposite.
Even if the ceasefire holds, Europeans fear that there is no solution to the strait unless Iran is brought in and agrees to a de-escalation process—a diplomatic outcome that Europe has little power to influence directly. The only alternative is to become a belligerent and risk assets and naval forces escorting cargo ships as well as deploying ground forces inside Iran for an extended period of time, something the Europeans have no desire to do.
Various European leaders have tried to point out the futility of military adventurism in the narrow waterway on the coast of Iran, where the Iranian forces. hold the profitbut they have had little success. Trump seems to believe that reopening the door will be an easy task, describing it as a “simple military maneuver” with little risk in a post on Social Reality on March 20.
He he told it Fox News that “many countries” will help the United States, without naming them, but added that “the UK and several other countries are sending miners.” The British government has not yet confirmed such involvement but it has he said repeatedly that it will not be involved in the war.
The Europeans have significant military capabilities but are already outnumbered, as they must be vigilant in their region against Russian military threats. And yet many European leaders continue to believe that they can play an important role in helping to reopen the strait, where one fifth of the world’s oil and gas ships pass through, due to their expertise in building international alliances and their experience in law enforcement in the Middle East in the face of piracy and the threat from the Houthis in the Red Sea.
France is leading in building an alliance to protect the strait, and report indicate that it has already sent a fleet of aircraft carriers, two helicopter carriers, and eight warships to the eastern Mediterranean. But Paris insists that these assets will have a defense role only – under the UN system and with Iran’s consent.
French President Emmanuel Macron has done just that he said that he is in talks with about 15 countries to deal with the problem – perhaps by sending military assets – as he tries to build a larger alliance of countries beyond Europe that includes India, Japan and South Korea. Many Asian countries are more dependent on energy supplies from the strait than European countries. Macron seems to be pushing for an international alliance of those willing to buy not only from the Gulf states but also Asians. Any such alliance could be useful in finding a diplomatic way to defuse tensions in the future and try to get Iran to abide by the agreed rules.
“Macron suggested he would lead Europe’s contribution to the crisis, but it would not be immediate, and even when there is stability after the war, it will still be very dangerous,” Eva Pejsova, chair of Japan at the Center for Security, Diplomacy, and Strategy of the Brussels School of Government, told. Foreign Policy. “Europe can take the role of coordinator,” he added. “It can establish a platform that allows the sharing of maritime situational awareness in real time with the aim of ending conflicts.”
Europeans have largely opposed the war for many reasons, both moral and military. First, they say that they were not consulted beforehand and are still unclear about its objectives. Second, the recent experiences of countries such as Great Britain and Spain have made them worried about the US retreating into the war. Both countries sent troops alongside the Americans to Iraq and later suffered terrorist attacks—the London bombings in 2005 and the Madrid train bombings in 2004 were claimed by terrorist groups in response to the deployment of British and Spanish troops in the Iraq conflict.
“We cannot exclude psychological wounds in both societies,” Grégoire Roos, director of Europe and Russia and Eurasia programs at Chatham House, told. Foreign Policy. Previous US efforts in the region, he added, “came at a heavy price” for Spain and Britain.
There are also more legal and practical issues. “How many ships would we need to safely escort cargo ships through the strait? What is the role of the navy? Is it defensive—just shoot down missiles and drones fired at the ship? Or offensive—also take out Iranian missile launchers on shore?” asked Jürgen Ehle, a retired German admiral and former top EU military adviser. He added, “All of this first needs to be decided, especially by the United Nations.”
Bence Nemeth, a senior lecturer in the department of defense studies at King’s College London, said it was unrealistic for naval assets to escort thousands of cargo ships in the middle of a conflict. And even in a post-conflict situation, he said, keeping Britain’s vital assets in the Gulf would come at the expense of Britain’s core security responsibilities in Europe.
“I think it would be very irresponsible to contribute any significant military assets to the Iran war, now that Europe is trying to rearm to deter Russia with greatly reduced US support,” Nemeth said. “If Europe starts diverting its capabilities to other theaters now, it is giving up capabilities it may need to block closer to home.”
Britain is already short of ships to meet its NATO commitments. Forced to deploy Type 45 destroyer, HMS Dragonin the Mediterranean Sea after its air base in Cyprus was attacked by Iranian drones, while one is deployed in the High North and a third is undergoing training following repair work.
This has made Britain unable to contribute to the NATO mission in the North Atlantic and the Baltic Sea, which has now been handed over to the Germans. Germany will increase its “military presence in the North Atlantic under NATO,” the German Embassy in London has been published on X. “When Britain deploys HMS Dragon to the eastern Mediterranean, the German frigate Sachsen will take over from HMS Dragon.”
But Britain and Germany are worried sending their few ships to the seas, which they fear may come at the cost of leaving their coasts unprotected. Ehle said that Germany has three frigates with air defense capabilities, but deploying them would risk leaving the Baltic Sea vulnerable to Russian espionage. Last week, British Defense Minister John Healey he said that three Russian submarines had carried out a “covert” operation in Atlantic waters north of England.
Ehle said that mine hunting is a German profession and that the country has two minesweepers and 10 mine hunters, but none can be deployed without assurances of long-term peace with the authorities. He pointed me to a statement by German Chancellor Friedrich Merz about Germany’s plans to contribute only “after a peace agreement is reached.” Merz he said Trump was aware of Germany’s requirements—international authority, “preferably from the United Nations Security Council” and approval from the German parliament.
Ehle said the EU could potentially expand existing maritime operations in the Red Sea, called Operation Aspideswhich has been sent to prevent the Houthis from attacking the ship. Kallas previously indicated that the expansion of Aspides was on the table but was rejected by member states, at least as long as there was serious fighting.
“It can be successful—even the US Navy can participate as it did in the Red Sea,” Ehle said, referring to the NATO-led one. Operation Sea Guardian-which NATO has explained as a “non-Article 5 maritime security operation” to share maritime information, prevent and counter terrorism, and enhance capacity building. Ehle added that the diplomatic agreement that followed between the United States and the Houthis was important in controlling the enemy’s attacks.
At the G-7 meeting in Paris on March 27, US Secretary of State Marco Rubio indicated that Washington is ready to participate in a mission to protect the sea and prevent Iran from imposing tariffs—which several reports indicate could be worth about 2 million euros per ship. “Not only is this illegal, it’s unacceptable,” Rubio said he said. “It’s a danger to the world, and it’s important that the world has a plan to deal with it,” Rubio said.
Pejsova, from the Brussels School of Administration, added that the EU also has past experience with Operation AGENOR—the military pillar of the European-led Maritime Mobilization Program in the Strait of Hormuz, set back in 2020. But that was a defensive mission intended to provide safe passage for commercial shipping. He said it expired in 2024 but could be revived but with a defensive capability.
However, without a diplomatic plan, the Europeans see any operation as a non-starter. They fear they are in a worse place than before the war began, when Iran allowed ships to pass without tolls. The Europeans are painfully aware that Trump’s lack of foresight alerted Iran to its rise in the world economy, leaving the Europeans (and Asians and Arabs) to pick up the tab.
