This is a version of The Atlantic Every day, a magazine that guides you through the top stories of the day, helps you discover new ideas, and recommends the best in culture. Register here.
In the past seven days, Donald Trump has adopted two conflicting positions on the Strait of Hormuz. A week ago, he wrote that “the whole civilization” will “die” if Iran does not make certain concessions – among them, allowing ships to resume their normal routes in and out of the Persian Gulf. This weekend, though, after marathon peace talks between the United States and Iran ended without a deal, Trump announced a blockade of Iranian ports, essentially increasing restrictions on the waterway.
Why block blockaders? The approach is guaranteed to exacerbate the ongoing energy crisis, which has been a sore point for Trump since the start of the war. But it also offers a new level of punishment for Iran: a trade that, for the president, seems worth making.
Since late February, Iran has been threatening to attack most ships passing through the strait, causing a drop in traffic that has become the biggest threat to global energy security in history, according to International Energy Agency. U.S. gas is averaging $4.12 a gallon, and prices for commodities like fertilizer and helium have risen. But Iran’s threat to the Strait of Hormuz has always had limited results. Its own ships can pass safely, as can foreign ships that comply with the country’s conditions of passage, which include payment of taxes (reported in cryptocurrency or Chinese yuan) and the use of new modes of transportation near the coast of Iran. The US restrictions, which began to be implemented yesterday morning, are intended to prevent Iran from exporting its oil, which is stifling the country’s economy.
So far, the precise scope of the US blockade has been somewhat unclear. According to international law, absolute restraint must be applied impartially. Full implementation will mean that all ships intending to sail to and from Iranian ports in the region will be prevented from doing so. The Navy has indicated that non-Iranian ships will be allowed to pass through the sea; The US military has the right to do so visit and find out any ship, and the right to seize ships they deem to be carrying contraband in support of Iran’s war effort. How the United States will determine which ships meet that criteria is unclear, and Atlantic reporting it suggests that even military officials have been struggling to understand how the restriction is being implemented.
In his social networks post Sunday morning announcing the blockade, Trump wrote that the Navy would “search and intercept every ship in International Waters that has paid taxes to Iran.” But the officer information from U.S. Central Command later that day made no mention of any plan to stop ships that paid taxes—indeed, it made clear that U.S. forces would maintain freedom of navigation, allowing neutral ships to pass. The restriction may be tested in the future. Centcom said this morning that US forces have already managed to divert six merchant ships “to turn around to re-enter an Iranian port.”
The eternal question of war legality it can make the situation more difficult. “If war is illegitimate, then deterrence is illegitimate,” Jennifer Kavanagh, director of military analysis at the Defense Priorities think tank, told me. Our partners are hesitant too. Despite Trump’s claims that other countries “would be involved,” Britain has refused to back it up, and Spain’s Defense Minister said the ban “doesn’t make any sense.”
Until this week, the Trump administration was aiming to ease sanctions on some Iranian oil as a way to lower energy prices. Now, and US intelligence shows that Iran’s economy may be weaker than it seemsTrump has decided that attacking the country’s exports is more important: The plan is to force Iran back to the negotiating table, in a weaker position than before. In the run up to US sanctions, Iran has been making an average of $139 million (not necessarily in US dollars) every day through its oil sales. Blocking its ability to transport oil from the port is the same as directly affecting the country’s war chest. Moreover, chaos in crisis has potential side effect of increasing US energy exports.
But Iran has also shown extreme resilience in recent weeks, both in its ability to withstand the US and Israeli bombing campaign and in its quest to control the sea. Claire O’Neill McCleskey, who previously headed the compliance unit at the US Office of Foreign Assets Control, explained that Iran has advanced capabilities for so-called dark sea operations, which can disable the blockade: its “shadow ships” can disable its surveillance equipment and broadcast false information to the authorities.
If the U.S. Navy is able to prevent Iranian ships from leaving the Gulf, the disruption will have a real impact on China, which buys about 90 percent of Iran’s oil exports (China’s foreign ministry has called the blockade “dangerous and irresponsible”). China in recent years has maintained close ties with nations throughout the Gulf, and is reported contributed to Iran’s recent decision to agree to a two-week ceasefire. Chinese officials “don’t want to have a war with the United States in the Middle East,” Kavanagh said, but they also “don’t want to appear to be pandering to the United States.” How China might continue to respond in the future (and whether it might be more inclined to pressure Iran into a deal with the US and Israel) is an open question. “It’s what everyone is looking at,” Kavanagh said.
The White House’s latest move comes at a significant cost. Already, the restriction is raising the price of oil. In blocking Iran’s exports, the administration is deliberately tightening the world’s oil supply and exacerbating an energy crisis that was expected to end soon. Iran and China are not the only nations that will bear these costs; in imposing this restriction, Trump is playing well with the world economy. The United States is not immune—on Sunday, the president told Fox News that oil and gas prices could stay the same or even go “a little higher” by the time the midterm elections are held in November. Iran has shown that it can withstand severe punishment, including the assassination of senior government officials. Meanwhile, America may be punishing itself.
Related:
Here are three new stories from Atlantic:
Today’s news
- Israeli and Lebanese officials met in Washington, DC, today for rare one-on-one talksled by Secretary of State Marco Rubio; their goal was to achieve a ceasefire in Israel’s campaign against Hezbollah.
- Representative Eric Swalwell of California said yesterday that he plans to resign from Congress after allegations of sexual harassment and misconduct It led to an investigation by the Parliamentary Ethics Committee and calls from both parties to ask him to resign.
- Representative Tony Gonzales he said yesterday that he will resign from Congress following the investigation by the Ethics Committee of the Parliament regarding the relationship with his former assistant and before the possible vote to expel the member.
Evening Read
Don’t Replace Chavez—Rethink Cemetery
By Carolina A. Miranda
Almost every day, I drive down the road named after Cesar Chavez, passing a photo of Cesar Chavez that shows the labor leader, who died in 1993, holding a flying United Farm Workers flag in one hand and a group of unidentified laborers in the other. Over the years, I’ve been fascinated by the work’s painstaking rendition: Chavez looks brave and strong, while the figures look like they’ve passed out. In Los Angeles, where I live, Chavez is everywhere. Within a mile of that mural are two others. Many municipal areas, large and small, bear his name. The transfer station in the center of the city where I wait for the bus is called Chavez. So is a city park in San Fernando, on the northern edge of LA, where a bronze statue of nature always looks like it’s about to walk into a rally speech.
Now I look at those compliments with fear and sadness.
More From Atlantic
Cultural Breakdown
Read on. What does Lena Dunham want to tell us? his new memories are captivating the cost of being an impossible popular goalSophie Gilbert writes.
Investigate. Today’s obsession with personal improvement can be traced back to the seven deadly sins—which still provides a valuable guide to life, James Parker reports.
Explore all our newsletters here.
Rafaela Jinich contributed to this journal.
When you buy a book using a link in this newsletter, we receive a commission. Thank you for your support Atlantic.
