In theory, there are “no significant legal or political obstacles” to him trying to withdraw troops from Germany again, said Jennifer Kavanagh, director of military analysis at the Defense Priorities think tank, due to the “very limited power” of the US Congress on military matters.
The only concrete limit is 2025 law that prevents the president from leaving at least 76,000 troops in Europe. With up to 85,000 troops on the mainland, that gives it a legal maximum of 9,000 troops.
But even doing so would take “four years at a minimum” and could cost “hundreds of billions” of dollars when indirect costs are factored in as well, said retired Gen. Mark Hertling, a former top U.S. Army Europe officer who helped manage the U.S. crisis between 2003 and 2011.
That doesn’t take into account the bigger problems and costs, he said, including relocating thousands of soldiers’ families, firing local German workers, closing hospitals and leaving newly upgraded facilities abandoned.
A hasty retreat would also be “very damaging” to the US military’s campaign in Iran, he added, given that facilities like Ramstein play a major role in coordinating drone strikes and shipping personnel and supplies to the Middle East.
There are also other practical obstacles to withdrawing troops. “Where would they go? You need infrastructure, you need facilities, you need shelter – that’s just not there somewhere waiting,” said Claudia Major, senior vice president for transatlantic security at the German Marshall Fund.
