The first surprising thing about President Trump’s failure in the Iran War of 2026 is that he already fought and won a successful war against Iran last year. In June 2025, US and Israeli airstrikes severely damaged Iran’s nuclear program in 12 days of bombing. Exactly how bad it remains controversial. But they didn’t there is nothing. If Trump had pulled out ahead, he could have banked his gains from last August as a solid if incomplete victory.
The second surprising thing about Trump’s impending defeat is that he doesn’t seem to care at all about the only clear reason for renewed fighting in 2026: the revolt of the Iranian people against their brutal oppressors. Trump has never given any evidence of concern for Iran’s democracy or human rights. He he promised The Iranians “Help is on the way” on January 13, but military operations did not begin until thousands of people had died and the rebellion had already been put down. During the military operations, Trump made it clear that he sought an agreement with the existing government. He did no effort supporting or collaborating with Iranian dissidents before, during or after the uprising.
The third surprising thing about Trump’s failure is that even he himself does not seem to understand why he went back to war against Iran. What exactly did he think he was going to achieve? He went on to say that he wants to make sure that Iran never develops a nuclear weapon. He also insisted that he had prevented it from doing so in August. He seemed to really believe the claims. If so, why start the fight again? If, however, those words were wrong, then why not strike nuclear sites again? Why the need for this greater war?
Trump launched the February 28 war for personality reasons, not strategy. He is about to lose the battle for the same personality reasons.
Trump is a bully. Consider how often Trump mocks his predecessors as “dumb” and praises himself as “smart.” Those predecessors, from Jimmy Carter through Ronald Reagan to Joe Biden, all had to contemplate military responses to Iranian terrorism and aggression. All of them finally decided not to start a major war against the territory of the Iranian nation. Among the main obstacles to action: the Strait of Hormuz issue. It seems Trump decided that the problem that was so difficult for everyone would disappear on him, because he is tough and roaring in his official photos.
Trump is reckless. Trump is not a forward planning person. He goes into desperate situations without any clear end game in mind. What was Trump’s plan exactly on January 6, 2021? After Mike Pence was captured by rebels and forced at gunpoint to recite the magic words that Trump asked him to say, what was supposed to happen then? The 81 million Americans who would vote against Trump in 2020 would submit? Would the military, CIA, and FBI follow blatantly illegal orders? In 2021, Trump incited violence and hoped it would all work out. He followed the same path again in 2026.
Trump hates order. Many of the tools of the modern presidency exist to force a confrontation with an unacceptable reality. Cabinet officers are confirmed by the Senate to assure the country that high offices are filled with people of character and ability. The National Security Council should process sensitive data to ensure that the president receives the necessary information. But to run the Department of Defense, Trump nominated and the Senate confirmed Pete Hegseth. Instead of selecting a national security adviser to replace Mike Waltz after Waltz resigns on May 1, 2025, Trump tapped Secretary of State Marco Rubio to fill the role. But doubling down on that work is getting the job done, especially because Trump has done it paralyzed NSC staff and done to the honest tests demanded by his many followers of the screwdriver.
Trump is scared. For all his bluster and bragging, Trump can’t take the heat. Presidents who believe in their decisions eliminate bad votes. Trump panics and changes course. Trump has been indicate since mid-March that he wants an end to the Iran war at almost any price. Iranians have read the signs. For all the damage the US military has inflicted on Iran, the Iranians seem to have gambled that they can defeat Trump. They have been proven correct.
Trump is a liar. As Trump’s secretary of state be considered back in 2016, Trump is essentially a con artist. But Trump is often a self-defeating con artist who falls prey to his own delusions. Trump he demanded “Unconditional surrender” from Iran. Instead, he is negotiating an exit that concedes many of Iran’s demands and leaves Iran in a greater position over Persian Gulf oil traffic than it was before the war. But Trump seems to really have it convinced himself that he has won a great victory, and seems genuinely confused that others refuse to approve of his flim-flam.
Trump cannot lead. Trump’s style of governance is command. He cannot work in party ranks, and he cannot speak to any part of the American nation beyond his MAGA base. A war leader, however, must be a national leader. War imposes costly sacrifices. Leaders who take the nation to war must explain the costs and motivate the sacrifices. Trump can’t do any of those jobs, and he doesn’t know how it can be done.
For three years in his first term, Trump benefited from the strong economy he inherited. Then tragedy struck, and his first instinct was to hunt for someone to blame. In this second presidency, his main task has been to enrich himself spectacularly, even as the economy has slumped under the weight of his disastrous trade war. He never made the case for the Iran war to the public and never sought authorization from Congress. There are some Iran hawks on the Democratic side, especially in the Senate. Trump never tried to cooperate with them.
Trump’s vision of the presidency is authoritarian and kleptocratic: Give orders, grab money, flatter yourself, build your own tombs. That is not the way to lead a nation through the dangers and hardships of war. Now the war is ending on terms unfavorable to the United States. Trump’s old tactics will be turned into a new task: trying to fool the American people and the world into believing that the war he lost was a big victory, the biggest ever, so big you wouldn’t believe it. He is likely to discover that, in fact, no one believes.
