Charges against former Cuban President Raúl Castro for ordering shooting down the planes of the two Brothers in Rescue in 1996 is a long-awaited gift from US Secretary of State Marco Rubio and President Donald Trump to US Cuban liners in south Florida. Supervised arraignment in Miami Freedom Towerwhich once served as a Cuban Refugee Center, handling thousands of migrants, leaves no doubt about its domestic political purpose. But it is also an ominous warning to Cuban leaders that the Trump administration is ready and willing to abandon diplomacy for military operations in its pursuit of regime change.
The charges are one more step up the ladder in Trump’s pressure campaign against Havana, a campaign that began with the Delta Force. the kidnapping of Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro and his wife on January 3. In quick succession, Trump ordered the cutoff of Venezuelan oil exports to Cuba, issuing executive order threaten other countries with tariffs if they export oil to the country, and keep secondary barriers threatening sanctions against foreign companies doing business with Cuba. The unequivocal goal is to suppress the life of the Cuban economy and force the country’s leadership to surrender to Washington’s wishes.
The parallels between Maduro—indicted in New York for conspiracy against drug trafficking—and Castro, who was charged with conspiracy and murder, are obvious, as is the open threat of similar action by US special forces to arrest Castro.
The accusations put a stain on the negotiations that have already deteriorated between the two governments. Despite three face-to-face meetings, diplomatic talks “have made no progress” according to to Lianys Torres Rivera, Cuban ambassador to the United States. Rubio wants Cubans to change their system of government and leadership, something they refuse to do as a matter of national independence. “Those are red lines,” Torres told them Hill. During a surprise visit to Havana on May 14, CIA Director John Ratcliffe issued an ultimatum to Cuban intelligence officials: Time is running out for Cuba to accept Washington’s demands or face the consequences.
At the same time, US officials have increased public justification for military action. Since January, the administration has been claim that Cuba represents an “unusual and unusual threat” to the United States because the regime organizes and harbors enemies of the United States and gathers intelligence (SIGINT) against the United States on behalf of Russia and China. During his meetings in Havana in mid-May, Ratcliffe urged Cuba to end its intelligence gathering activities.
But if the investigation was a war casualtiesthe international system would be condemned to Hobbesian “a war of all against all,” because everyone is spying on everyone, friend and foe alike. Just last week, when Trump returned from his summit in China, he agreed this fact to journalists. “The question I was asked yesterday … ‘What about the fact that China is spying?’ I said, ‘Well, it’s one of those things, because we’re spying on them like hell, too.'”
If SIGINT isn’t enough of an excuse, unnamed officials also leaked the story Axios that Cuba has acquired 300 military aircraft that are an “increasing threat” to the United States, for alleged plans to attack the Guantánamo Naval Base; US Navy; and Key West, Florida. Cuba may or may not have acquired drones to defend itself against an American attack, but the idea that Cuba would start a suicidal war with the United States is like journalist Megyn Kelly. to put it“a bunch of bulls.” Cuba “is not in a position to threaten anyone,” he said. “Don’t insult our intelligence.”
Cuban officials have come out to deny that they have no intention of attacking the United States while also claiming their right to defend themselves. “Like any country, Cuba has the right to defend itself against foreign aggression,” he wrote Deputy Minister of Foreign Affairs Carlos Fernandez de Cossío responding Axios a story. “It’s called self-defense, and it’s protected by International Law and the UN Convention.”
The United States has no national security justification to start a war against Cuba. But the great military power of the United States, as shown in Venezuela, may lead the White House to believe that, like Trump himself. to put it“I can do whatever I want” by Cuba.
Senior US officials can see the poor island as an opportunity for a quick winto compensate for the imminent war in Iran. The US Department of Defense has increased intelligence gathering planes off the coast of Cuba, and the aircraft carrier of the USS Nimetz it has arrived in the Caribbean on May 20, Cuba’s Independence Day. US Southern Command recently published a video on an X captioned, “Lethal. Precise. Ready,” showing planes, helicopters, tanks, amphibious landing craft, and troops on the ground, ending with an aerial shot of Cuba.
A limited strike to arrest Castro would likely succeed, although it might prove more costly than arresting Maduro—and less effective. Castro, soon to be 95, retired nearly a decade ago. Although he is still very influential, he does not run the country day-to-day, so his departure will not destabilize the regime like Maduro’s kidnapping did in Venezuela.
Three hundred drones won’t stop the US military if Trump decides to launch an Iran-style bombing campaign. But the lesson of Iran is that you cannot bring it change of government from spaceeven when there is strong, organized opposition to the government on the ground—something that does not exist in Cuba.
Nor is it enough to kill the leadership of the nation by targeted killing. Like Trump himself has commented on Iran, “the first tier is gone, the second tier is gone, half of the third tier is gone,” and yet the government looks no more reliable than it was before the war began.
At the end of the kinetic spectrum is the full invasion and occupation of the island, like the operation that the United States launched to arrest Panamanian President Manuel Noriega in 1989—another head of state accused in the United States. But that would make the Trump administration responsible for occupied Cuba, and the more than 10 million people who are there lack of food, medicine, fuel and electricity.
Some US officials seem to believe that if the economy gets bad enough, the Cubans will simply stand up and overthrow the government instead of getting on the shelf and walking away. In fact, that has been clear the reason for being to restrictions since celebrities Mallory memorandum in 1960, when Lester D. Mallory, deputy assistant secretary of state for American affairs, advised that “every possible means be taken at once to weaken the economic life of Cuba. …
More than 65 years later, Washington is still pursuing that strategy. To have destroy the whole countryAmerican officials are now trying to engage and motivate the Cuban people. In a Spanish-language video message on May 20—the same day Castro was impeached—Rubio blamed all of the country’s economic woes on his leaders, denied any U.S. responsibility, and repeated Washington’s offer of $100 million in humanitarian aid to be distributed through the Catholic Church.
“I know that today,” Rubio he said“you … are going through unimaginable hardships. Today I want to share with you the truth about the cause of your suffering. … The only thing that stands in the way of a better future is those who rule your country.”
On the same day that Rubio was inciting Cubans against their government, Cuba’s ambassador to the United Nations, Ernesto Soberon Guzmán, was trying to keep the talks alive.
“Cuba is ready to talk about everything with the United States,” he told New York Times. “There is no taboo subject in our conversation – on the basis of equality and equity.” Rubio, when asked about the prospect of a negotiated settlement, he said: “The likelihood of that happening, given who we’re dealing with right now, is not great.”
Agreements that serve the interests of both countries should still be possible, but successful negotiations require compromise. The Trump administration seems uninterested in that, insisting instead on a complete overhaul of the regime by any means necessary.
In the decades since 1959, many presidents of the United States have considered intervention in Cuba, Trump emerged May 21: “Looks like I’m going to do it.”
