After the victory of President Donald Trump in the 2024 elections, the US’s European partners were ready to accept Trump’s demands and accept his unique style of international leadership. British Prime Minister Keir Starmer rushed to the White House, where he gave Trump an unprecedented gift second state visit on behalf of King Charles III, knowing the president of the United States is a sucker for monarchist glitz and glamour. Other leaders followed Starmer’s lead, including NATO chief Mark Rutte, who called out Trump in a strange way.father” at the NATO summit in 2025.
In his second term, Trump had a real opportunity to shape the world in his image and restore America’s position as the undisputed leader of the free world. Instead, Trump has continued to lash out at allies and deny the role of the White House in the world. The Europeans respond in kind.
After the victory of President Donald Trump in the 2024 elections, the US’s European partners were ready to accept Trump’s demands and accept his unique style of international leadership. British Prime Minister Keir Starmer rushed to the White House, where he gave Trump an unprecedented gift second state visit on behalf of King Charles III, knowing the president of the United States is a sucker for monarchist glitz and glamour. Other leaders followed Starmer’s lead, including NATO chief Mark Rutte, who called out Trump in a strange way.father” at the NATO summit in 2025.
In his second term, Trump had a real opportunity to shape the world in his image and restore America’s position as the undisputed leader of the free world. Instead, Trump has continued to lash out at allies and deny the role of the White House in the world. The Europeans respond in kind.
Europeans were happy to sideline Trump, because they believed they still needed America. After the Cold War, the Europeans spent decades in complacency and complacency about their own defenses where a pro-Atlantic stance broadly made sense. Europe allowed itself to become an outpost of US foreign policy instead of DC registering its security and preferential market access.
That number is now a little uncertain. What is the value in a simple and satisfying arrangement if the United States suddenly withdraws 5,000 troops from Germany or impose taxes for no apparent reason? Is it worth exploiting Trump when he makes jokes about domestic violence to get you down? as he did and French President Emmanuel Macron, or claims about a politically neutral head of state to agree privately that Iran should not have a nuclear weapon, as did King Charles?
Trump’s ingratiation from allies is not just signs and words: Trump’s return to the Oval Office led to increased defense spending by NATO members. European countries have reimbursed US spending on Ukraine, even if it means well handing over money to US arms companies for weapons. The UK signed a historic drug deal with Trump that will cost the UK’s public health service more than $4 billion year. And despite Trump’s frequent complaints about his NATO allies, especially in Europe, military bases and resources across the continent have been used by the United States in operational efforts against Iran, although the White House kept officials out of the loop.
All the fundamental arguments, from practical to economic, to keep Trump happy are still there. Europe cannot replace the security infrastructure provided by Washington immediately, nor is it possible to simply redirect European-American trade relations elsewhere. But it could slowly move away from America’s overreliance by making long-term decisions that return strategic dominance to Europe, while keeping Trump superficially happy at the same time.
That is why Europe has begun to “quietly abandon” the transatlantic union, as Rym Momtaz of Carnegie Europe. he wrote recently:
Some Atlanticism actors have recently chosen European providers for long-term design contracts instead of American ones. The central bank of the Netherlands abandoned Amazon Web Services in favor of Germany’s Lidl as their network operator, and the Danish defense ministry chose to buy Franco-Italian SAMP/T air defense system instead of American Patriot batteries.
Although, as Momtaz rightly notes, these moves are being made in practice because of what Trumpism has done more broadly to American credibility, that does not mean they are being taken without confidence. Speaking to European or NATO officials, it is clear that the constant state of conflict that dominated Trump’s first term and the first year of his second term has subsided, while European countries are more confident in their own ability to shape the future of their security.
Take the “coalition of the willing” (unfortunately abbreviated as COW), a British-French-led project of like-minded middle-class nations who, as the name suggests, are willing to support Ukraine’s war against Russia. What is happening through the COW is 35 nations—including non-Europeans such as Australia, Japan, and Canada—come together for a common goal, focusing on European security. As Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney said in a recent meeting of the European Political Union, believes “the international order will be rebuilt, but it will be rebuilt from Europe.”
The new European order that Carney describes will hopefully include post-war Ukraine within its ranks. The surprising nature of Ukraine as a country without “any card” or like thankless money pitAs Trump and his deputy have suggested in different ways, it is easily disproved when you see how Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has been traveling in the Middle East. cut deals and Gulf states where Ukraine provides protection against Iran. While Ukraine may need financial support, its armed forces are arguably the most effective and experienced in the world right now—and will therefore be an important part of any future European alliance.
Carney and his allies in the COW understand this in a way that the US administration does not. Even at the beginning of this year, even after Trump launched his attacks on Iran, US allies were trying to keep him in the tent. They still are, but with little enthusiasm or ambition and, crucially, it’s a different place–which doesn’t leave them helpless at the mercy of the United States.
We already see COW countries collaborating on projects such as Japan’s next-generation fighter jets, where Tokyo turned to European allies instead of the United States. Meanwhile, the European Union’s €150 billion arms loan program is finally coming together, with Poland and Lithuania set to become the first countries to sign deals worth around €50 billion.
Geographical and political change tends to move at the speed of a heavily loaded oil tanker. Ten years after Trump’s first shock victory, all the dramatic explosions and unusual news cycles have slowly and subtly forced the tanker to change course. And it will take a lot of time to convince allies, especially in Europe, to change it.
