There is an old line, sometimes attributed to President Dwight D. Eisenhower, that the best way to solve a difficult problem is to make it bigger. That may be a more generous interpretation of how the Trump administration is approaching its ongoing peace talks with Iran.
Over the weekend, the news around the talks followed what has now become a familiar pattern. On Saturday, the two sides were reported around the plan to reopen the Strait of Hormuzand lifting US sanctions against Iran. Then on Sunday, President Donald Trump said he had told his negotiators “not rush” in the agreement. On Monday, the United States launched a new round of what it called “defensive strikes” in southern Iran the current message from the White House it’s that they’re negotiating a few more days, and they continue to believe that a deal is possible, but they’re not back to all-out war off the table.
Then in the race Social reality On Monday morning, Trump added to the problem by saying that “it is imperative” that as part of any peace agreement, Egypt, Jordan, Pakistan, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and Turkey sign the Abraham Accords, repairing relations with Israel. This is unlikely: Saudi-Israeli cooperation against Iran has been the worst-kept secret in the Middle East for years, but the international outcry over the war in Gaza has made it politically unacceptable for these countries to publicly embrace Israel. It is not known how seriously Trump will push for this, but the fact that at this stage in the negotiations he is bringing new demands that will surely anger his own allies, shows that he does not really want to end these negotiations.
The fact that an agreement has not yet been signed – despite the fact that the basic dynamics of the conflict have not changed much since Iran and the United States signed the current ceasefire agreement in early April – as well as the fact that Trump seems to expand rather than reduce his demands suggest two things that turn the reports of recent weeks of negotiations on their head: First, Trump does not believe that he is losing this war. Second, he still hopes to reach a major agreement to reset the politics of the entire region.
Trump doesn’t think he’s losing
Before the war began, Trump told a worried Tucker Carlson that despite forecasts warning that attacking Iran could destroy his presidency, he was. I’m sure everything will be fine “because it always is.” The war has certainly not gone as smoothly as expected, but it is very possible that Trump still believes that he has the upper hand and that everything will work out.
Fears of an America First rebellion and Trump’s MAGA facility also seem overblown.
In his defense, the worst predictions of an economic downturn made when the Strait of Hormuz was closed have not come true. Oil prices have been rising around $100 a barrel and Americans are feeling the effects at the pump, but it’s worth noting that many energy experts were. predicting $200 for a barrel of oil currently if the narrow channel is not opened. (There are a few explanations for this, but the main one seems to be that the US and other non-Gulf producers have been able to to export more oil than many expectedwhile China has reduced its imports, relying on its large reserves. For all the reports of China’s support for Iran’s war effort, in this regard, Beijing could do more to help the United States.)
A problem may still arise: There are international concerns about jet fuel supplies ahead of the summer season, and the effects of global fertilizer shortages this growing season won’t be seen for months. But for now, the United States the economy is not in a state of complete crisisand Trump may feel he has vindicated “fear” mistakes.
The war is unpopular and most Americans say it has increased the cost of living, but according to a recent poll by the Eurasia Group Institute for International Affairs, 73 percent of Republicans still approve of Trump’s handling of the situation. Fears of an America First rebellion and Trump’s MAGA facility also seem overblown.
As long as no US troops are killed — and none have been since the ceasefire began — and the economic crisis remains under control, Trump can continue to believe that time is on his side. On the other hand, the current Iranian leaders, who believe they can absorb more pain than the Americans and don’t even listen to public opinion, probably believe so too. This is a recipe for getting stuck.
In some respects, Trump has scaled back his war goals in Iran. Instead of pushing for a shutdown of Iran’s ballistic missile program or its support for regional allies like Hamas and Hezbollah as he did in pre-war talks, Trump now says “one thing” what he has in mind is preventing Iran from getting nuclear weapons.
But it will be hard enough at this point just to get a deal on Iran’s nuclear program that meets what appears to be Trump’s key condition: that it be tougher than Barack Obama’s negotiated deal in 2015. Although the Iranians have reportedly agreed in principle to reduce or withdraw of their highly enriched uranium reservesThe White House continues to insist that the asylum itself be handed over to the United States. “No dust, no plan,” an official told Fox Newsreferring to Trump’s description of the stockpile as “nuclear dust.” That became a more difficult circle to set last week when Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei issued an order saying uranium should remain on Iranian soil.
The plan being discussed, according to many reports, begins the process of nuclear talks for 60 days – which could at least reduce the temperature, although it leaves a major sticking point unresolved and it’s not hard to imagine the situation will worsen again during that period.
However, his comments linking the Abraham Accords to the resolution of the Iran war suggest that Trump, who is reportedly “fed up” with Iran at this time, he thinks more. Trump has always expressed the belief that he alone can bring peace to the Middle East as a region, and not just resolve individual conflicts. Remember that when he announced his plan to end the war in Gaza last September, he described it as a a great day in the “history of civilization” which can bring “eternal peace in the Middle East.” In fact, it didn’t bring it eternal peace to Gazabut he can hope to finish the job now.
Right now, we may be in a dynamic situation where the costs to Trump are not high enough that he feels compelled to end the war quickly, but they are high enough that he feels he needs a major victory to justify them — whether it’s a deal that surpasses Obama or achieves his alleged dream of “eternal peace.”
