Welcome to Foreign PolicyOverview of China.
Highlights this week: The US pauses arms trade with TaiwanPresident of Russia Vladimir Putin he visits Beijing, and a journalist is accused of working as a reporter an unregistered Chinese agent.
Welcome to Foreign PolicyOverview of China.
Highlights this week: The US pauses arms trade with TaiwanPresident of Russia Vladimir Putin he visits Beijing, and a journalist is accused of working as a reporter an unregistered Chinese agent.
US Freezes Taiwan Arms Package
The United States is to stop $14 billion arms deal with Taiwan, acting US Navy Secretary Hung Cao said in a Senate hearing last week. The package is the latest casualty of US President Donald Trump’s attempts to find a new balance with China.
During his meeting with Chinese President Xi Jinping earlier this month, Trump to be called package a “negotiating chip,” ignoring a long-standing practice of not discussing such sales with Beijing. China, meanwhile, is reported to hold a visit suggested by US Deputy Secretary of Defense Elbridge Colby about the program.
The delay in US arms sales to Taiwan is normal: The current backlog it is about 30 billion dollars, and China opposes every package. But weapons are only part of the important things. Strong bilateral support reassures Taiwan and signals resolve to China. Trump’s casual actions on the deal suggest that Taiwan’s future can easily be traded to serve the interests he deems most important.
Meanwhile, Trump has floated the idea of direct conversation and the president of Taiwan, a symbol that previous administrations avoided. It is possible that the president was panting and did not understand the meaning of such an offer, as he did supported Xi Taiwanese language.
Other Trump administration officials have been similarly divided soften the language of the US National Security Strategy on China and remove reference to fact sheet on US opposition to Taiwan independence. In the space of a year, Trump himself has gone from attempting a trade war to exploiting Xi.
Like me pre-writtenstructural pressures make it difficult for Trump to completely abandon the possibility of defending Taiwan. But every episode like this weakens Taiwan’s trust in the United States and increases its temptation to embrace China.
It also reinforces the belief among hardliners in Beijing that the US is a paper tiger that will avoid a real conflict. That is a dangerous concept, because the United States is not a paper tiger; it is a volatile superpower whose response to Chinese aggression could escalate into a major war.
Under normal US rule, there would be a lot of debate about arms sales to Taiwan. For example, it is balance of arms right, or should Taiwan focus more on asymmetric capabilities such as drone warfare? In addition, do the sales discourage Taiwan from the much needed military reforms?
But as long as US policy is driven by Trump’s impulses, those questions are beside the point. Trump’s apparent desire to sell Taiwan has prompted a new round of logic from China the hawk in the administration. Cao, who has installed himself as a staunch anti-Communist, he blamed the delay on demand restock weapons has decreased in Iran.
In private, some hawks insist that the arrest of the former President of Venezuela Nicolas Maduro, the war with Iran, and even assumed. invasion of Cuba it is part of a grand strategy aimed at eroding China’s power. But there is no master plan here, and like the United States failure in Iran it becomes difficult to deny, the argument may give way to the search for a scapegoat.
For its part, China could interpret such a result as a sign that the United States will back down in the Taiwan dispute—or as a reminder that large military advantages do not guarantee victory over smaller states.
What we’re after
Putin’s visit. Russian President Vladimir Putin’s trip to Beijing last week arising more noise than substance. China and Russia’s alliance of convenience is well established, but Beijing has shown little interest in making Moscow meaningful favors, especially in the economic sphere. Instead, China has taken advantage of of Russia’s dependence during the war in Ukraine to obtain contracts on its terms.
In fact, Putin’s visit did not bring results agreement over the long-delayed Power of Siberia 2 pipeline, a project first proposed in 2006 that would send natural gas from Russia’s Altai region to northeastern China. While Beijing would benefit from additional heating supplies in the cold region, its green energy success means it can wait until Moscow agrees to its preferred terms.
The case of Chinese espionage. American journalist and son of the famous Texan Republican, Thomas Pauken II, has been charged and operate as an unregistered foreign agent for China. Two aspects of the case are particularly revealing.
First, as in many events of Chinese intelligence, the information allegedly passed on to Beijing appears to be scant—nothing he couldn’t learn from reading a newspaper. Because China’s intelligence system is so widespread and chaotic, it consumes a lot of time and money. collect low value information.
Second, Pauken told the FBI that the Chinese were “concerned” with getting information about his father. That points to an undisguised aspect of Chinese espionage: It’s often targeted family members of American politicians, hoping to gain leverage.
Most Read FP This Week
Technology and Business
Government to reduce spending. China’s public consumption it fell rapidly in April, it decreased by 7.3 percent compared to the previous year. That’s not a good sign for the economy, especially for consumers they don’t even use it. China has felt the effects of the Iran war, although less so than its most vulnerable neighbors.
However, another factor may be at work: Xi’s intensified campaign against corruption and political exclusion. Corruption is the oil that lubricates the wheels of China’s local government – what political scientist Andrew Wedeman has. named “corruption of development.”
Combined with officials’ fears of backing the wrong project and attracting political scrutiny, it makes sense that a message from the top could halt or reduce spending across the system.
An AI price war? Chinese intelligence firm DeepSeek has reduce the price for its 75 percent better design—making them about one-tenth the cost of US-based OpenAI and less than its closest Chinese competitor. Rival company Xiaomi responded with a price cut of up to 99 percent. China now appears headed for the kind of brutal AI price wars it has seen in other growing industries, such as electric cars.
Many companies may go under, and those that survive will become national champions. DeepSeek, incorporated in a private company, is already there to receive supported by the government. But DeepSeek’s price drop, however unsustainable, could also be an opportunity for China. As the costs and limits of AI become clearer, American companies should do the same increase the price even higher.
