Foreign Affairs is not a series of rejected episodes. It is a test of whether nations learn from history and act on predictions. The United States has often failed that test. It forgets that unchecked aggression leads to massive wars and that removing governments without building new ones invites chaos.
Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, Iran’s debilitating role in Middle East and the collapse of Libya and Afghanistan all testify to what happens when those lessons are ignored.
China, by contrast, has not waged wars of conquest or slaughtered civilians abroad. His rise is there raised lifting hundreds of millions out of poverty and rebuilding businesses. Yet Beijing’s aggressive approach to Taiwan, while understandable from its perspective, threatens its vision. China still depends on the international trade system.
The system needs stability, and stability needs accommodation with the United States, however pressured Washington may appear.
Iran is a role model. Beijing has not actively helped Tehran prolong the conflict, although it is pushing back against it US sanctions against Iranian oil. Active aid would plunge China into the same kind of destructive adventurism it has so far avoided. The world needs China to be a constructive force, not a destroyer. If China wants its prosperity to last, it must resist the temptation in some quarters to support those who thrive on chaos.
Cooperation between Iran and Russia in Syria and support for militancy across the region has caused a humanitarian disaster. China’s credibility as a responsible international actor would be undermined if it concealed such behavior.
