The old order is dead. We don’t know what will replace it. As Henry Kissinger reminded us in his 2014 book World Order“no international order has ever existed”. After the unusual actions of US President Donald Trump, the gloves are off. American comedians and Iranian Lego comics tell us all we need to know about the demise of the old order.
If a one-state arrangement is impossible, and America abandons the international order and the rules of the game it created after World War II, what is the alternative?
Considering the credibility of the United States as a partner, Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney is pushing union of central powerswhat I call “midi-lateralism”, where people like Canada, Australia and the European Union, those with great economic power but not superpower status, join together to find a third way of freedom, to push back against the oppression of the great powers.
Another way that emerges is “minilateralism”a changing geometry of small countries working together quietly to become more self-sufficient and reduce major energy disruptions.
The United Nations membership reflects a pyramid of 193 members, mostly small countries, dominated by a powerful few who can veto what they don’t like in the Security Council.
The top two countries – China and the United States – account for 32.8 percent of national income in purchasing power parity terms by 2025. The next 16 members of the United Nations with the largest share of world GDP – except India at 8.7 percent – have shares ranging from 3.5 percent to 1.3 percent. These 16 countries contribute 40.2 percent of the National GDP. This leaves a large number of 175 countries that make up 27 percent of GDP
