The politics of Israel have changed within the Democratic Party – and staunch defenders of the Jewish state are becoming rarer and rarer.
On Wednesday, 40 of the 47 Democratic senators they voted to prevent military sales to Israel – much higher opposition than had previously been seen to such a move. It was the most dramatic sign of the party’s rapid shift toward a more confrontational path, and one that Democrats and critics of Israel believe is incomplete.
Leftist pro-Israel Democrats “surprised and disappointed,” Marc Rod of the Jewish Insider reported. This division was on display Thursday, when voters in New Jersey’s 11th District elected Analilia Mejia, who ran as an outspoken left-wing critic of Israel in a special election for Congress. Although he won handily, historic Jewish towns like Livingston and Milburn faltered against his by large double-digit margins compared to their presidential votes, a rarity in a heavily Democratic year.
“It’s unfortunate for supporters of Israel who have long needed and depended on bipartisan support — and had it,” a Democratic ally who has long been involved in Jewish causes told me. “It’s growing, and it’s hard to say where it will end, but it’s not good.”
But while the old pro-Israel accord of unconditional bilateral aid is clearly dead, achieving a new one will be more difficult. Operators in various camps on the Democratic spectrum are not sure how far the current trend will go, and whether Israel faces a mere adjustment in its relationship or the risk of completely falling out of the American orbit in the next administration.
The reason for the change, however, is straightforward: Democrats’ voters have moved away.
Back in 2022a slightly larger number of Democratic voters — 53 percent — viewed Israel negatively. Since then, the destruction caused by Israel in Gaza following the Hamas attacks of October 7, 2023, has seriously damaged the country’s reputation – as has the new Iran war initiated by President Donald Trump with Israel this year.
Now, a whopping 80 percent of Democrats or Democratic-leaning adults view Israel negatively, according to Pew Research polling done last month.
So, politicians are responding – and not just those in safe blue states or progressive powers. The 40 senators who voted to block the military sale Wednesday include several who are from swing states and are said to be interested in the presidency: Mark Kelly and Ruben Gallego of Arizona, Jon Ossoff of Georgia, and Elissa Slotkin of Michigan.
Change has been slow among the leaders of the party and its key organizations: the DNCHouse and Senate leadership, and party fundraising committees. The officials, such as Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer, who voted to approve arms sales to Israel on Wednesday, have condemned the Iran war and criticized Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s policies, while trying to make clear they still support the country as an ally.
But this may not be possible, given the way their party has moved under them. The issue is likely to play a major role in the 2028 primaries. The stakes are high – and activists critical of Israel feel emboldened by their success so far, and are motivated to push further.
Why and how Democratic voters turned against Israel
The collapse of Democratic support for Israel unfolded in three main phases.
Back during Barack Obama’s presidency, the progressive wing of the Democratic Party became increasingly hostile to Israel, when Netanyahu clashed with the Obama administration over Israeli settlement expansion in the West Bank and, in particular, Obama’s nuclear deal with Iran.
Indeed, Netanyahu came to Congress giving a speech condemning the Iran deal, appearing to align himself with Republicans and angering many Democrats. Still, outside the world of activists and included intellectuals, Israel was rarely in the forefront of Democratic voters during Trump’s first term or the first few years of Joe Biden’s presidency.
That changed with the Gaza war, which he made Israel a constant topic in the news and social media for years. An initial surge of sympathy for Israel after the Oct. 7 attack led to widespread fears about the civilian toll in Gaza — and Biden seemed unwilling or unable to quell it. Meanwhile, Israeli leaders continued to disparage any talks finally the state of Palestine, which has long been at the heart of Democratic hopes for lasting peace in the region.
“This was a genocide that unfolded in real time and that had an impact. Kids were watching it,” James Zogby, a Democratic pollster who has championed the Palestinian cause within the party since the 1970s, argued. Still, there was age divisionwhile older Democrats are more likely to view Israel favorably.
Now, the events of Trump’s second term – in which the US has twice attacked Iran as well as Israel – have shaken that too.
“As soon as Trump won, we started to see a very big shift in voting among older Democrats who had supported Israel,” Hamid Bendaas of the Institute for Middle East Understanding Policy Project, a Palestinian advocacy group, told me. “Part of that is the Israeli bias, seeing Netanyahu as a Trump ally.”
Results played out in Congress
Now, there is a growing consensus within the Democratic Party that stronger pressure tactics against Israel are needed – but there is still disagreement about how far to go, and those on the left of the party are pushing harder.
With growing opposition within the party to funding “offensive” weapons for Israel, the left is now pushing to go even further.
One idea is to cut off U.S. funding for “defensive weapons,” such as the mounts used in the Iron Dome missile defense system that protects Israel against rockets fired by Hamas and Hezbollah (and which the U.S. has spent billions support money). Some recent House developers supported this idea – although some of them insist that Israel should still be allowed to buy defensive weapons from the United States and its funds.
Another is to finish all direct US funds to the Israeli army, which the progressive Jewish group J Street called for this week. Representative Alexandria-Ocasio Cortez (D-NY) recently voice support for that idea. Many observers believe US policy is headed this way, in part because Israel is now a very wealthy nation that does not really need US aid.
“There is a growing understanding that aid money is untraceable and that any amount of aid that the United States gives frees (Israel) to spend on things we don’t like,” Matt Duss, a former foreign policy adviser to Sen. Bernie Sanders, told me. (Duss has it is said that he was giving information Ocasio-Cortez, a potential 2028 presidential candidate, on foreign policy this year.)
Asked what the next Democratic president should do when he takes office, Duss said he should “immediately halt all arms sales — not just to Israel, but in general to governments that have been involved in human rights violations.”
Some leftist activist groups have other priorities, such as demanding that Democrats call Israel’s war on Gaza a genocide. Bendaas said his polling shows growing support for using sanctions on Israel similar to those used against apartheid South Africa.
“I think that’s where the talks are headed by 2028,” Bendaas said. “But the odds are moving so fast, it’s hard to pin down sometimes.”
The consensus among progressives that Israel needs more pressure masks a deeper disagreement: to what end?
Several advocates I interviewed pointed to a divide between progressives who hope to save the US-Israel relationship, versus those on the left who are ready or even interested in ending it outright.
What if pressure tactics fail to change Israel’s security calculations, as they have done so many times in the past?
Often these debates touch on fundamental differences of opinion about the legitimacy of the state – between “Liberal Zionists” critics of Israel who also see the Jewish democratic state as an important refuge for historically oppressed minorities and under serious threat from its neighbors, and “anti-Zionist” critics. who find strength in left-wing movements and see Israel as an instrument of natural oppression built on tribal supremacy and colonialism.
On the development side, J Street president Jeremy Ben-Ami told me that while there is a need to reassess the terms of the US-Israel relationship, he was not looking to reassess the “friendship” or “the idea that the US will have Israel’s back.”
But on the left, said Bendaas, “There is a group of people who are more interested in: how we can separate and make the United States and Israel less united in the future.”
The primary election in the recent New Jersey special election was symbol of this division. The campaign arm of the pro-Israel group AIPAC spent millions defeating Mejia, but Tom Malinowski, a moderate Democrat who criticized Netanyahu and was willing to condition aid. Malinowski described himself as a “pro-Israel” voice seeking to correct an errant ally; Mejia, the winning candidate, was more strident in his remarks and accused Israel of “genocide.”
Activists hoping to save the relationship hope that Israel’s elections this year will remove Netanyahu for good, allowing for a new face. However, the youngest remaining Israelites have a long time has been in decline and opinion polls show many of Netanyahu’s policies regarding Gaza,, West Bankand Iran continue to have strong support among the Israeli people – making a radical change of attitude seem unlikely.
So what then? What if pressure tactics fail to change Israel’s security calculations, as they have done so many times in the past?
If the Democrats take back power in 2028, they will have to try to answer that question.
