MIAMI — The politically influential Cuban-American community in the state of Florida is pushing President Donald Trump to completely remove Cuba’s communist leadership as the Trump administration appears ready to settle for less.
Cuban opposition activists, particularly in South Florida, have been taking their uncompromising message to the public for months. This includes everything from holding prayer meetings to marching through the streets of Miami to signing a road map document called “Freedom Charter,” which outlined their aspirations for a transition to democracy. Labor groups and members in South Florida and Cuba have been meeting for weeks to outline post-regime plans, such as holding free and fair elections.
The moves signal heightened tensions between GOP-leaning Cubans in South Florida and the Trump administration, which has sent mixed signals about its true intentions for the island nation — a rift that could affect this year’s key midterm elections.
The administration has imposed an energy embargo on Cuba and increased embargo pressure on the island, including transitexecutive orderwas launched on Friday, while negotiating with the government. But Trump and other administration officials have insisted that some kind of economic reform deal could satisfy them for now. Thatincludes Secretary of State Marco Rubiothe son of Cuban immigrants, who has long sought to overthrow the leadership in Havana.
While administration officials have also said some senior Cuban officials will need to resign, the overall message they have sent is that regime change can wait.
This approach worries some people living outside of Cuba, who argue that the US-Cuban agreement that promotes economic change will fail due to the rampant corruption in Cuba, fueled by the regime.
“The Cuban exile community, which is my community, what we are saying is that there will not be any real economic change until you have real political change,” said Orlando Gutíerrez-Boronat, secretary general of the Congress of Cuban Resistance, a coalition of activist groups. He emphasized that this is a widespread feeling in the Cuban business community.
GOP state senator Ileana Garcia warned that if the United States does not take military action or intervene in another way or have a plan that will “overthrow the regime” in Cuba, then the future presidential library of Trump, which is planned to be built in the center of the city of Miami, will look like a “shithole” near the Independence Monument that was previously a processing center for Cuban refugees.
Inaction in Cuba, Garcia warned, would “definitely” affect the way South Florida votes, “especially after years of words and promises” to get rid of the communist regime.
Trump’s approach to foreign policy has generally prioritized US economic interests over human rights and democracy. The ouster in January of Venezuela’s dictator Nicolás Maduro left a large part of the Caracas regime in exchange for economic cooperation with the US Trump has also backed earlier calls for a complete regime change in Iran, despite previously saying he wanted to help Iranians rise up against their tyrannical rulers.
Such a result in Cuba is unlikely to satisfy the Cuban diaspora.An April Miami Herald poll of Cuban exilesfound that 78 percent said they would not be satisfied with economic reforms alone. Another question found that a majority would support military intervention, although the group was almost evenly split between those who wanted the military to remove the Cuban government and those who wanted the military to deal only with humanitarian needs.
Cuban Americans are a politically powerful group in the Sunshine State and among Trump’s staunchest supporters. Their enthusiasm is the main reason Republicans are gaining ground in South Florida, which, until recent election cycles, was a blue part of the state.
Many Cuban Americans were happy that Trump appointed Rubio as his top diplomat, and they trust him as a key player in the Cuban negotiations.
But the Cuban foreigner too has been swept away in Trump’s immigration crackdown. Cubans have long had fast-track green card status under the Cuban Reform Act, but the Trump administration has slowed the processing of Cuban claims for legal immigration, while increasing deportations and other enforcement actions against Cubans who have arrived in recent years.
A person familiar with the Trump administration’s thinking on Cuba described Cuban activism abroad as a mixed blessing.
“A lot of immigrants don’t help directly, but they put pressure on the government, which is good,” said the person, who spoke on condition of anonymity to discuss the sensitive topic. “But look, the government has survived pressure for 70 years. We need to be honest about how this can go.”
Rubio, for one, will not give up on political reform in Cuba, but Cuba and the United States “need to build the capacity for political change over time,” the person said.
When asked to comment on the impact and policies of the elections in Cuba, the White House said in a statement, “As the president said, Cuba is a failed state that has been mismanaged for many years and whose rulers have faced serious problems due to the loss of support from Venezuela.”
The State Department did not respond to a request for comment.
Publicly, Rubio has sent various signals about what exactly he would like to see in Cuba, talking about the need for economic and political change.
On”Fox and Friends” on Monday, Rubio said that “major economic reforms” were not possible “with these people in charge.”
But the comments could be interpreted to mean the exchange of a few Cuban officials, rather than a total change of government followed by democratic elections. That would be consistent with Trump’s occasional remarks that he has achieved “regime change” in Iran despite only removing the top leadership.
Economic changes the U.S. is pushing for in Cuba include privatizing state-owned enterprises, allowing more foreign investment, giving Cubans better access to the Internet and making Cubans responsible for buying U.S. energy, according to a person familiar with the Trump team’s thinking.
Rubio doesn’t have the final say on what America decides – Trump does. The president is a ruthless person who often changes his mind according to the current situation. Trump also has to deal with the fallout from the ongoing war with Iran, which has already begun pushed Cuba down his priority list.
The Cuban diaspora is not an interdependent people, and the mainstream in South Florida is often their hardest line – but it’s also their most active and important voting bloc.
Still, the United States should also consider its own national interests, not just the opinions of Cubans.
That includes preventing an immigration crisis that could arise if the Cuban government, which is only 90 miles off the coast of Florida, were to suddenly disappear, as well as limiting the influence of Cuba’s friends, such as Russia and China, on any deal struck by Washington.
In Miami, attendees of Cuban liberation demonstrations regularlywear MAGA hats, T-shirts and hatscollaborating with the president. But the leaders also emphasize that there is a special way they want the liberation of Cuba to take place.
Some, like Hialeah Mayor Bryan Calvo — whose city holds the largest concentration of Cuban Americans in the United States — have clearly emphasized that they don’t want a “half-measure” agreement or what the Trump administration did in Venezuela. That includes rejecting any deal that would leave the island’s President Miguel Díaz-Canel or relatives of the late Cuban dictator Fidel Castro in power.
“People on the ground are very skeptical that Trump and Rubio can pull off something that is acceptable to the community,” said a Florida-based political consultant familiar with the dynamics between Washington and South Florida, who spoke on condition of anonymity to speak openly about domestic issues.
last weekend,activist groups united withSenator Rick Scott (R-Fla.) met for a prayer event in downtown Miami to call for Cuban independence and the release of political prisoners.
Working groups in South Florida and Cuba have been meeting for several weeks to outline plans for providing humanitarian aid after liberation, ensuring accountability against communist leaders and holding democratic elections. The work is an offshoot of “Freedom Charter” signed by more than 70 opposition groups. Activists say they have shared the document with the State Department.
Rosa María Payá, head of the pro-democracy group Cuba Decide, said the plan “makes our position clear” that Cuba must change to democracy, “not to change the name of the regime that has held our country since 1959.”
“There is a timetable that we hope to see, and it is before the end of this year – and we hope tomorrow. Soon things will be good,” said Alian Collazo, executive director of the Cuban Independence Movement, another signatory. Collazo added that he has “incredible confidence” in Rubio.
On Wednesday, GOP state Sen. Alexis Calatayud of Miami, a Cuban-American, delivered a proclamation in Tallahassee to state lawmakers expressing support for the accord, which he said shows “there is a vision for a democratic Cuba.”
Gutíerrez-Boronat of the Congress of Cuban Resistance said Cuban leaders living abroad speak regularly with representatives of the Trump administration. He declined to elaborate on the discussions but said the diaspora had met with “great sympathy for our position.”
A person familiar with the thinking of the Trump administration said that it is focusing on “kinetic power,” meaning military options, in Cuba but the focus remains on diplomacy and persuading the government to make some changes, especially in the economic sphere.
Cuba has been struggling ever since the United States cut off oil shipments from Venezuela and threatened to impose sanctions on other countries that tried to send oil (although it did allow a Russian tanker to deliver crude oil at the end of March).
The island has suffered from power outages, disrupting transport, health services, water and food.
“It feels like the valve will pop sooner or later,” said a US official familiar with the situation in Cuba, speaking on condition of anonymity because they were not authorized to speak publicly.
However, the official downplayed the possibility of mass protests, noting past security restrictions that could prevent Cubans from taking to the streets en masse.
The Cuban embassy in Washington declined to comment.
Eager to see Cuba free from communist rule, diaspora leaders say they are willing to be patient to get the policy right.
“There’s a sense of optimism and hope that we can see change in Cuba,” said GOP State Rep. Mike Redondo of Miami, the son of Cuban immigrants who is in line to lead his House in 2030. “Cubans have been disappointed in the past. … I would call it guarded optimism, but it’s certainly been the strongest in my lifetime.”
Kylie Williams in Tallahassee and Eric Bazail-Eimil in Washington contributed reporting. Toosi reported from Washington.
