Europe is preparing for a trade war with China. But will it change anything?



As trade tensions between Beijing and Brussels continue to escalate, Chinese companies in the European Union have been forced to walk a tightrope: expanding their presence in lucrative markets while facing increased regulatory hurdles and rapid geographic change. In the second part of this three-part series, we look at whether China and the EU are heading for a full-blown trade conflict.

Last week, Beijing gathered more than a dozen Chinese companies in Berlin for a conference with one purpose: to demonstrate China’s desire to export to Germany.

Politicians and executives from both countries gathered in a conference hall at the headquarters of the German Chamber of Commerce and Industry, where China’s vice-minister of commerce, Ling Ji, made a promise of a bigger Chinese market.

The event – titled “Big Market for All, Export to China” – is part of a campaign China launched last year to boost imports from its main trading partners and, in its words, “protect the global free trade system”.

In reality, the effort may also be a response to a broader issue: China’s ballooning trade surplus, which is fueling growing anger in countries in the European Union — and could even push the two sides into a full-blown trade dispute.

China’s trade surplus reached a record $1.19 trillion last year, and its sales continue to outpace imports. In the first five months of 2026, exports to Germany rose 17.3 percent year-on-year, while imports from Germany rose just 1.5 percent, according to Chinese customs data.
The rise in inequality has raised concerns in Europe, and elsewhere warning of the coming “China shock 2.0”. which can destroy the local industry. That has put Brussels – already at loggerheads with Beijing over a series of recent policies aimed at unfair trade practices – under pressure to introduce tougher protections.



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