Just a week ago, Ukraine and Russia were scheduled to sit down for talks aimed at ending their four-year war.
But in a twist, the rallying point is now high because Iran – Russia’s ally – is to attack the original arranged Abu Dhabi area.
The canceled zone so far is one of the few visible signs of how the US war against Iran is immediately affecting the future of Russia’s war with Ukraine. But analysts, diplomats, and U.S. congressional staffers see danger ahead as the war taps into critical weapons stockpiles and affects U.S. President Donald Trump’s foreign policy calculations—with some predicting that the Iran crisis could prompt Trump to push harder to end the war in Ukraine.
On the other hand, however, the war with Iran could buy Ukraine some political capital in the White House and the US Department of Defense. And that’s because the US is now asking for Ukraine’s help in fighting Tehran’s Shahed drones.
Iran produces drones for less than $50,000 each, but the United States and its allies have few methods to destroy them cheaply. But Ukraine is developing cost-effective ways of destroying drones, a version that Russia too produces with help from Iran.
President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelensky he said on Thursday that he will give the United States the help it needs. “I gave instructions to provide the necessary means and ensure the presence of Ukrainian specialists who can ensure the necessary security,” he said.
Ukraine too to help the Gulf states, which have been is reported using expensive Patriot missiles to destroy cheap drones. Thus Ukraine’s aid could reduce demand pressure and provide more for use against Russian ballistic missiles.
But Zelensky’s statement also included what appeared to be no subtlety to his newfound influence. “Ukraine supports partners who help ensure our security and protect the lives of our people,” he said.
How much help Ukraine can provide is an open question, though, especially since Ukraine needs its own controls to shoot down Russian drones.
Meanwhile, if the war in Iran continues, it threatens to deplete the U.S. stockpile of the same weapons that Ukraine needs—especially American-made Patriot missiles.
Trump estimates beliefs about US weapons stockpiles Politics Tuesday: “We don’t have a limit on medium and high bullets.” Iran is “running out of missiles,” he added, implying that fewer Patriot missiles and other interceptors will be needed for some time.
However, stockpiles of some important weapons, such as Patriot missiles, are reported younger. When there are plans increase procurement, the US military currently buys new missiles on the ground hundreds every year.
That math has left some US and European governments skeptical that the Trump administration can balance the war in Iran with security commitments elsewhere, including Ukraine. “Perhaps they do not recognize themselves, because it will depend on how the war will be,” said one European diplomat, who spoke to Foreign Policy on condition of anonymity to discuss sensitive diplomatic matters.
“It’s clear that the war will affect Ukraine, Taiwan, and all other security assistance,” said a senior congressional aide, who also spoke on condition of anonymity.
The calculation also caused Zelensky ring bell alarm earlier this week. “We understand that a long war (in Iran) – if it is long – and the intensity of military action will affect the level of air defense we receive,” he said.
The decrease in weapons could affect the current defense equipment, such as air defense, which Ukraine depends on, and also limit the US options for providing offensive weapons to Ukraine, according to Max Bergmann, director of the Europe, Russia and Eurasia Program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies. The Trump administration previously considered sending Tomahawk long-range ballistic missiles to Ukraine, which would be useful for destructive Russian oil production facilities.
“American use of Tomahawk missiles (in Iran) probably means that any chance of the Trump administration giving that platform to Ukraine is gone,” Bergmann said.
Analysts are also pondering how the Iran war could affect Trump’s thinking about international diplomacy and its complexity. relationship with Russian President Vladimir Putin.
Success in Iran could embolden Trump to put more pressure on Russia, said John Herbst, executive director of the Atlantic Council’s Eurasia Center and former US ambassador to Ukraine. Still, Herbst downplayed the chances of Trump treating Russia the same way he has treated weaker countries like Iran. “He has this thing with Putin, which prevents sound analysis,” he said.
Conversely, if the United States fights in Iran, then it could pressure Trump to seek victory elsewhere and make a deal with Russia on Ukraine, said Peter Slezkine, director of the Russia Program at the Stimson Center.
“Trump has always been more receptive to Iran’s (conservative) view than Russia’s. If anything, US involvement in the Middle East may make him more willing to reach an agreement with Russia to end the war in Ukraine,” Slezkine said.
In a possible ominous sign for Ukraine, Trump took over swipe at Zelensky via a Social Reality post discussing US ammunition stockpiles. “Joe Biden spent all his time, and our Country’s money, GIVING everything to PT Barnum (Zelenskyy!) of Ukraine,” he posted Monday.
However, Herbst wrote a bit further as likely to show greater hostility towards Ukraine than usual, noting that it wasn’t like that the first time Trump compared Zelensky to a circus entertainer.
Trump repeated his criticism of Zelensky during the interview and Politics Thursday, saying that the Ukrainian leader “has to raise the ball, and he has to make a deal.”
“It is unlikely that he is the obstacle,” Trump added, referring to Zelensky. “You have no cards. Now he has a few more cards.”
But Ukraine has some cards to play when it comes to Washington.
Since a bad meeting between Zelensky and Trump at the White House in February 2025, which was followed by a pause Regarding US aid to Ukraine, Kyiv has pursued a multifaceted policy to curry favor with the Trump administration.
On trade, a top concern for the Trump administration, Ukraine has moved forward with important mineral trade which could see US companies accessing its mineral resources. Ukraine has also worked on energy contracts with the United States, including to buy of US liquefied natural gas through Greece.
Ukraine has also increasingly emphasized the importance of religion and highlighted the persecution of the Russian army against Christians in the occupied territory of Ukraine. In early February, Ukraine held a prayer breakfast in Washington they attended and senior Trump administration officials, including Paula White-Cain, senior adviser to the newly created White House Office of Trust, and Riley Barnes, assistant secretary of state for democracy, human rights, and labor at the US State Department.
Religious outreach may have contributed, in part, to the White House it is reported to cancel last November’s meeting with Russian religious leaders, who were accusing Ukraine of religious repression—even though the same group met with Trump administration officials and members of Congress.
Ukraine has also won attention of the first lady of the United States Melania Trump, who is now focusing on the issue of Ukrainian children who have been kidnapped by Russian forces. In February, Melania Trump said that work with Putin’s staff continues.
Still, some doubt that the cards that Ukraine has played to win Trump’s allies translate into influence on Trump himself, who – from. Iran to him maintenance of the case of convicted sex offender Jeffery Epstein—has taken actions that violate the interests of his constituents.
“The issue of (abducted) children has had an impact in Trump’s world—there’s no doubt about that,” Herbst said. “But, really, Trump doesn’t really care about Trump’s world.”
