As in much of Asia, India is adapting to a chaotic world, where conflicts are on the rise, international and especially international institutions are increasingly dysfunctional, and existing mechanisms of stability such as the international trading system and the non-proliferation regime are being dismantled. With some major powers showing contempt for international norms and laws, there is no longer a world order, or even the pretense of one. The international system remains—international flights continue, and your cell phone will work around the world—but there are no laws or institutions or barriers that prevent powerful people from attacking other countries, despite promises in the UN Charter and elsewhere.
Changes in the international system are making the fundamental task of India’s foreign and security policy more difficult, which is to facilitate India’s transformation into a modern, prosperous and secure country. A chaotic world is unlikely to provide India with the peace, predictability and security that India’s development needs. Yet these challenging situations also represent an opportunity to change what we do.
As in much of Asia, India is adapting to a chaotic world, where conflicts are on the rise, international and especially international institutions are increasingly dysfunctional, and existing mechanisms of stability such as the international trading system and the non-proliferation regime are being dismantled. With some major powers showing contempt for international norms and laws, there is no longer a world order, or even the pretense of one. The international system remains—international flights continue, and your cell phone will work around the world—but there are no laws or institutions or barriers that prevent powerful people from attacking other countries, despite promises in the UN Charter and elsewhere.
Changes in the international system are making the fundamental task of India’s foreign and security policy more difficult, which is to facilitate India’s transformation into a modern, prosperous and secure country. A chaotic world is unlikely to provide India with the peace, predictability and security that India’s development needs. Yet these challenging situations also represent an opportunity to change what we do.
Instead of getting involved in other people’s quarrels or engaging in mediation, the biggest contribution that India can make at this time is to continue to manage its development and security well. Working with its allies and neighbors, it should aim to provide stability in the subcontinent, the Indian Ocean region, and southeast and west Asia. Furthermore, where conditions permit, India should work to strengthen predictability and stability on global issues important to India and others’ futures.
If this sounds selfish, it needn’t be, because there is a clear coincidence between India and many other countries in its neighbourhood. Besides, none of us, no matter how powerful, can reduce or benefit from global chaos alone.
In a way, India, and its culture of strategic independence, it is ill-placed to operate in the new global environment. Now that the post-World War II institutional architecture has failed, power is more evenly distributed. The two most powerful nations, the United States and China, together account for less than 50 percent of the nation’s GDP and military power today. Amidst this more efficient distribution of powers, there are potential benefits for non-status quo powers that seek to improve, not overthrow, the current international system.
The absence of order, or world order, does not mean the absence of the international system, but its fragmentation. The possibilities that emerge in such a situation go beyond the pursuit of opportunities for personal agendas that we see all around: Russia in Ukraine, Rwanda in the Democratic Republic of Congo, Israel and the United States in West Asia, China in the South China Sea, Azerbaijan in Nagorno-Karabakh and Armenia, and so on.
In the midst of chaos, each country will instead have to be more transparent in prioritizing its interests and focus on creating positive results rather than seeking narrative dominance, status, glory, revenge for history, or other short-term goals.
For India, what this will mean in practice is building and working for coalitions on issues that matter and will affect the lives of our people in the future. These issues include renewable energy, maritime security, and the international trading system. Those willing and able to contribute will vary from region to region. A dynamic geometry like this is useful when we cannot rely on a traditional global system for solutions. It does not seem reasonable to expect institutions created by member states to be effective when those countries are fighting each other.
With the exception of its western territories, Asia has enjoyed peace for decades. The result has been unprecedented economic development and growth across much of our economy, improving the lives of our people. But after the era of globalization, the growth and peace in Asia are threatened not only by political and regional conflicts and critical points within Asia but by the competition of great powers and the behavior of more than that.
Consider how the globalized trade system that benefited Asia the most has been torn apart by US President Donald Trump’s unilateral tariffs. Consider, too, how the non-proliferation regime continues in northeast Asia, west Asia, and even Europe. The decline in American deterrence was compounded; the experience of nations like Ukraine, Libya, and Iran, which gave up or lacked nuclear weapons or options; and the nuclear arms race among the largest nuclear-weapon states has led to a shift in opinion in Scandinavia, South Korea, Japan, and other countries toward the prospect of acquiring or acquiring nuclear weapons. There is a common interest among nuclear-weapon states—including India—in preventing further proliferation.
India has begun to adjust policies in an attempt to mend the strained relations between the two countries and China. His government is also working with neighbors on the continent to reduce the disruption of energy, fertilizer and other markets caused by the US and Israel attacking Iran. Many of our neighbors are going through difficult social and political changes, renegotiating their social and political contracts. India is and can be an island of stability and help them manage these changes effectively and peacefully; improved connectivity and economic integration, for example, would benefit the entire region.
If Asia is like that to continue to develop in peace, it is clear that we will have to find new ways to reduce the damage that the whole world is doing to the peace and security of Asia. We have seen the selfish and uncertain policies of major players in the international system for more than a decade now, and how they have adversely affected the security and economic prospects of the world, especially in Asia and Africa. There has been no binding international agreement on the issue of relevance for over a decade. Advanced diplomacy is more important than ever. And this is where India, the Association of Southeast Asian Nations, and Asia in general, with its tradition of working across international lines and boundaries since the Cold War, can play a role. India’s strategic independence has been a viable option.
Instead of neutrality, the tumultuous world demands the opposite: application of intelligence to issues to determine what is in India’s collective global consciousness and interest, and act accordingly. With its culture of working across political divides and staying away from the barriers of blocs and alliances, India can work with other actors in the international system to build relationships and bilateral agreements and agreements that are needed to continue the march of development amid chaos.
This essay is published in collaboration with the Asia Peace Program at the Asia Research Institute of the National University of Singapore.
