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Welcome to The Logoff: Iran says the Strait of Hormuz is open – but there is no peace agreement yet, and there are many unanswered questions. Here’s what we know:
What is happening to Hormuz? On Friday, Iran said it was reopening the Strait of Hormuz for at least the remainder of the US-Iran ceasefire, which is currently set to expire next week. In a post announcing the move, Iran’s foreign minister cited Thursday’s ceasefire in Lebanon as the reason for the reopening.
It is another good sign in the ongoing negotiations between the United States and Iran, which have not yet produced an agreement, and could have an immediate impact on the price of gas in the United States. NPR reportsbecause the price of oil is also falling.
But many obstacles remain. For one, President Donald Trump says he intends to keep the US blockade of the sea until an agreement is reached. That means that while the route may be reopened to more commercial traffic, Iranian oil may fail to flow.
There is also the question of how open the strait is, Friday’s announcement aside. As the BBC reportswhile Iran previously shared a map with two clearly visible sea lanes, monitors suggest that few ships have passed through so far. Part of the problem may be the water mines that Iran has placed in the channel, some of which are is reported cannot find or remove.
Is a peace treaty close? No one seems to know. Trump has suggested that the United States and Iran have reached an agreement regarding Iran’s nuclear material (Trump calls it “dust”), which he wants removed from the country. But Reuters it was reported on Friday that there are still “significant differences” blocking the deal, including Iran’s nuclear program.
We’re likely to learn more about where things stand this weekend, as negotiations continue. Currently, the two countries are eyeing a deadline of Wednesday, after which the current ceasefire expires. However, if negotiations continue and the Strait of Hormuz remains open, it is not difficult to see that time being extended.
And so, it’s time to leave…
Hello readers, a quick message from the program: I won’t be leaving on Monday, but this newsletter will be in your inbox as usual in the trusty hands of one of my colleagues.
Now, to digress: I learned about a new game – “Uppies and Downies,” a form of medieval proto-rugby with Calvinball characteristics (ie, no rules) – from this excellent Athletics article, which visits the town in northwest England where it is still played. You can read the full piece here is the giveaway link.
Have a great weekend, and I’ll see you back here on Tuesday!
