These are wartime policies, even though neither country is at war. All, however, are caught in the blast zone of one being fought thousands of miles away. That’s because the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, triggered by the US and Israeli attacks on Iran that began on February 28, has sparked a crisis that reaches kitchens, classrooms, hospitals and farms across the Global South.
Twenty-one miles wide at its narrowest point, before the war, the Strait to be carried 20 percent of the world’s oil, 20 percent of natural gas (LNG), one third of marine fertilizers, and almost half of the world’s sulfur exports. Shipping has has dropped by 95 percent. The Sea Gate is, in fact, closed, and its consequences continue through the projected life 3.2 billion people in countries that are currently under some form of fuel rationing, blackouts or energy restrictions.
Start with food. Imports of India most of its cooking gas through the Straitsand disruption hit almost immediately. Black market prices for a single cylinder of liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) – the kind that rules the family kitchen there – have almost three times. Restaurants across the country have reduced their menus; the 70-year-old Mumbai institution reduced its offerings for the month of Ramadan for just four plates. The chain in the same city stopped selling the dose completely, because the dish requires an open gas flame. A handwritten sign in a Bengaluru cafe go viral: “There will be no roti due to the gas cylinder crisis (due to the war between Iran and the United States).” Welcome 10,000 restaurants in the state of Tamil Nadu alone it faces closure.
The fertilizer crisis has not yet had the same level of immediate impact, but the long-term impact looks dire. The bay produces about one-third of the world’s urea exportsan important ingredient in fertilisers, and at the same time the worst closure in the agricultural calendar – as Northern Hemisphere farmers need to use fertilizers for spring planting.
Bangladesh has it shut down four of its five state-owned urea plants. Nepal, which produces zero chemical fertilizers domestically, has noticed the price of urea increases by 40 percent before its important rice season. In Brazil, sugar mills are channeling their new crop towards ethanol – which is more profitable, with oil over $100 a barrel – which could tighten the world’s sugar supply for months.
The World Food Program warns that 45 million more people worldwide can be included in severe food shortages – a 15 percent increase on current hunger levels. As if that were not enough, there is a narrow door closure United Nations food aid was stuck in warehouses in Dubaiand crippling the ability of aid agencies to get supplies where they are needed most.
Then there is the collapse of the environment, which may be one long-term effect of the crisis.
Disruption of clean LNG supply has resulted in a the resurgence of coal throughout Asia and more. Japan plans to do just that lifting rules that required its older coal-fired power plants to operate at less than 50 percent capacity, which means more carbon dioxide and other pollutants are released into the atmosphere. South Korea removed its seasonal limit on coal power and delaying the retirement of three coal plants. Thailand, the Philippines, and Indonesia are all expanding coal operations. And in Europe, Germany is there to review like restarting mothballed coal plants.
Coal companies – which products are single largest contributor to climate change – they are reaping the benefits. of Australia Yancoal is up 40 percent since the war began, while Pennsylvania-based Core Natural Resources is up 30 percent. And once turned around, coal plants can be politically difficult to shut down again, which could jeopardize long-term carbon sequestration. And it’s not just about climate change. In India, the government has an official restaurants and hotels allowed to burn wood, dried produce, and cow dung – undoing years of clean oil development and putting more lives at risk in the process in one guide.
If you squint, there may be a silver lining to all of this. In Nepal, more than 70 percent of new car sales are already electric. Electric rickshaws they export in Pakistan. Chinese electric car manufacturer BYD it is now emerging exports to be 15 percent higher than expected before the war. One energy analyst called this “Ukraine time of Asia” — a shock that could accelerate change in the alternative way the Russian invasion pushed Europe toward wind and solar.
Accelerating the transition to clean energy, however, will not put food on the table for billions of people across the Global South, and more coal and other dirty energy in the short term will endanger more lives around the world. The world’s poor may not be fighting Iran’s war, but they are certainly suffering from it.
A version of this story originally appeared on Future Perfect journal. Register here!
