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Yhave you heard the joke: The White House will begin talking about the Epstein files to distract from the Iran war.
Except that this opposite of “Wag the dog” is based on a strange fact: First Lady Melania Trump he did bring in the disgraced donor, without forcing it, last weekend in an effort to distance himself from the scandal (in a move that, predictably, brought it back into the spotlight once more). Meanwhile, as talks with Iran move forward, the Strait of Hormuz remains in Tehran’s hands and now President Trump has approved dangerous naval sanctions that will likely push prices higher. Moreover, Trump’s poll numbers have continued to decline, Republicans worry that both houses of Congress could be lost in November, and the president threw away a lot of geopolitical capital trying to support his now-defeated friend, Hungary’s Viktor Orbán. Oh, and Trump really offended the followers of two of the world’s largest religions in the span of a week.
Donald Trump has reigned in fear for too long. He demands complete loyalty from his fellow Republicans; he pushes world leaders. He is a political escape artist. But this time, he has locked himself in with no obvious way out. The Iran war was his conflict of choice, but it has not gone at all the way he had hoped. Trump believed it would be similar to the military crackdown that easily ousted Nicolás Maduro from Caracas, that it would be a surgical strike lasting days or perhaps just a few weeks. Instead, the conflict is nearing the 50-day mark. Iran is battered but emboldened, and now has greater control of that vital channel—through which 20 percent of the world’s oil flows—than it did before the war, using it as an economic conduit to squeeze the rest of the world. Trump has demanded a reopening, even threatening to destroy Iran’s entire civilization if the regime does not comply. But Tehran did not tremble with fear. Trump’s usual intimidation tactics are not working.
Tinvaded Venezuela in the first days of the year it changed the course of Trump’s presidency. By the last months of 2025, the pace of his first six months in office was deleted and his party had suffered a series of electoral losses. He looked to some like an early lame duck. But the Caracas military operation, White House aides noted, righted the ship. Trump, although he was never banned, was changed to be clean identificationacting on the impulse and incited by advisers who saw an opportunity to further expand executive authority. And he loved the strength of the US military, telling advisers that it was an unstoppable force. Greenland. Iran. Cuba. His legacy, he believed, would be to redraw the maps of the world.
The US military has breached most of Iran’s defenses and destroyed its missile arsenal. A joint operation with Israel killed Iran’s supreme leader and most of his top deputies. But Iran did not surrender. Trump had overestimated the ability of the Iranian people to rise up, and he had not understood incredible pain that a radical theocratic regime was willing to accept to maintain its grip on power. 13 US soldiers have been killed. Tehran maintained the ability to strike its Gulf neighbors and destroy their energy facilities. And although most of its navy was destroyed, it was able to take control of the sea using the threat of mines, fast attack boats and drones. Large oil tankers avoided the risk, and prices around the world began to rise.
This is where Trump stepped into the limits of his authority. He was outraged that such a provisional force would intimidate the shipping companies, demanding they “show courage” and force passage. But the companies refused. He has asked European countries to intervene, noting that they benefit more from the oil passing through the Strait of Hormuz than the United States. But Europe refused, having not been consulted before the war began and refused to agree to Trump’s demands a few weeks after him. complex transatlantic relations for wanting the United States to be given Greenland. Finally they stood up to face the president who boasted to my colleagues that “I run the country and the world.”
Back home, some Republicans were also finally saying no. A few loud, separatist voices—Tucker Carlson, Steven Bannon, Megyn Kelly—declared that a new war in the Middle East had broken Trump’s “America First” promises. And while many Republicans grudgingly went along with the bombing campaign in Iran, many made it clear that they would draw the line at a ground invasion. The Pentagon is prepared possible attacks; Military leaders are still awaiting Trump’s orders. Opinion polls showed that Americans, who did not approve of the war, strongly opposed the ground attack. Instead, Trump took to social media on Easter Sunday morning to issue a no-holds-barred threat, calling on Iran to “Open the Fuckin’ Strait, you bastards, or you’ll be living in Hell,” before adding “Praise be to God.” Muslim leaders condemned the post and said it was blasphemous. Two days later, he went further, threatening that “the whole civilization will die.”
Even some of Trump’s advisers were very upset, a few of them told me. Members of Trump’s inner circle had advised him to avoid giving deadlines; now he had placed several, and he looked weak each time one passed. His mandate was to threaten actions that would amount to war crimes—and genocide. The president was panting, several people close to him told me. His usual tricks didn’t work, so he believed that his only play was to increase. But it wasn’t strategically using unpredictable behavior to get his way; it was despair. He looked perverted. Republican allies and world leaders persuaded him to drop his threat, and as the deadline loomed, his team accepted a cease-fire offer held by Pakistani negotiators. But the talks at the end of last week in Islamabad did not produce an agreement, which prompted Trump to order the blockade. The plan was to use pressure on Iran to open the sea strait and for Europe to help the United States. So far, no results have been achieved.
In private moments, Many Republicans have been saying for months that holding the White House is likely out of their reach. The GOP margin is narrow, and the incumbent party tends to do well in midterm elections. But at least, Republicans thought, the Senate was safe. That is no longer the case. Democrats look at the map and see potential takeovers in North Carolina, Maine, and even Ohio, Iowa, and Alaska. The number of Republican votes is falling as prices—especially gas—rise. Trump still hasn’t a true case to the importance of the Iran conflict. And even if the war were to end soon, the economic pain is predicted to last for months, well into the campaign season. Before the war broke out, the White House had planned for Trump to deliver an economic message. But now the president is distracted—and has no good economic news to share anyway.
Karoline Leavitt, the White House press secretary, continues to be optimistic about Iran and the midterms, telling me in a statement that “conflicts like this are ultimately determined by results, which will be good for the American people, and there’s a lot of game left to play before November.”
Last summer, the West Wing’s plans to tout the economy were thwarted by questions about Trump’s relationship with dead sex offender Jeffrey Epstein. The Epstein scandal has been one of the few areas where Republicans have felt comfortable breaking away from Trump, who wants the matter closed. But once again, the donor was thrust into the headlines—this time by the first lady. Melania Trump caught many senior White House aides last Thursday with her sudden statement denying a relationship with Epstein, a few of them told me; the president himself admitted that he does not know what his wife will say. It is led by rumors that the first lady was trying to get ahead of some kind of destructive story related to Epstein; so far, nothing has been done. But his call to Congress to give Epstein’s victims a public hearing ensures the story won’t die anytime soon.
Hungary has added to the series of presidential failures. On Sunday, a few days after Vice President Vance made a campaign appearance in Budapest with Orbán, the ruling party lost the election. Orbán was a role model for many on the right; had used state power to take influence over Hungarian media, universities, and other institutions, collaborating with Vladimir Putin to weaken the European Union and NATO. Trump was heavily invested in Orbán’s re-election: Secretary of State Marco Rubio also appeared in Budapest, while the president repeatedly endorsed Orbán and suggested that more US funding would be on the way to Hungary if the prime minister wins. Hungarian voters had other ideas.
And then the president took war with the pope. Pope Leo 14 has been tactful on political issues but has been indifferent for months due to his criticism of the Trump administration’s immigration policies. When the Iran conflict broke out, the pope (as popes tend to do) spoke out against war. Popes and presidents don’t always see eye to eye, but many commanders-in-chief choose to attack Christ’s priest for fear of alienating the tens of millions of Catholics in America—or, perhaps, to avoid any possibility of divine retribution.
But Trump, of course, is not most presidents. He does not take criticism from anyone, and those close to him believe that he felt threatened by another powerful American voice on the world stage. So the president was there on Sunday, just a week after offending Muslims, accusing the pope of being “weak on crime” and “serving the Left.” To make matters worse, Trump posted a picture of an AI posing as Jesus healing a sick person. The uproar was swift, even from some in Trump’s party accustomed to suffering his wrath in silence. Trump fought back, removing the post before claiming that the image portrayed him as a doctor, not as a son of God. But then, without bowing down, he blasted the pope again on social media last night.
The Pope, for his part, said this week that he is “not afraid” of the Trump administration. He is far from alone.
