Much has been made of the skyrocketing One Nation polls over the past few months. His rising popularity is a rarity in Australian politics. The Resolve Political Monitor showed his primary vote last month at 22 percent, up from 6.4 percent in the 2025 election.
Until August last year, One Nation was crossing less than 10 percent of the primary vote in this flagship poll, but since then it has risen to 25 percent in the February data collection.
Party leader Pauline Hanson’s personal popularity has remained in positive territory since October 2025. She has a consensus figure of +6 percent, ahead of Prime Minister Anthony Albanese with -12, but below Opposition Leader Angus Taylor with +16.
Tonight will be the first federal test of the party’s new popularity, but One Nation had a bumper night in the South Australian election in March. The party came second behind the Labor party, claiming 22.9 percent of the state’s primary votes and winning four seats in the parliamentary assembly.
Tonight will be a deciding factor in determining whether the One Nation vote can continue to hold, and elect the party’s first representative in the House of Representatives.
