Welcome to Foreign Policy‘s South Asia Brief.
Highlights this week: Pakistan is deploying troops to Saudi Arabia for their mutual defense agreement, Prime Minister of India Narendra Modi visiting the United Arab Emirates amid growing ties, and The new government of Nepal to open an inquiry to the interim minister.
Pakistan Sends Soldiers to Saudi Arabia
On Monday, Reuters reported that Pakistan was to be deployed 8,000 troops, fighter jets, and an air defense system to Saudi Arabia as part of a mutual defense agreement. reached between the two countries last year. Part of this placement was information last month following a statement from the Saudi Ministry of Defense, albeit with limited details.
The development promotes Pakistan diplomatic balancing act in the Middle East as it aims to have a greater mediating role in the Iran war. To succeed, Islamabad must maintain Tehran’s trust as a neutral and credible mediator, even as its relationship with Riyadh, Iran’s arch-rival, grows.
It may seem surprising that Pakistan can find any balance in its relations with Iran and Saudi Arabia. But for nearly a decade, Pakistan has invested efforts in portraying itself as a neutral player in the competition. The key turning point it came in 2017, when Qamar Javed Bajwa became the first Pakistan Army chief to visit Iran in two decades.
Imran Khan, who became prime minister the following year, pushed for better relations with Tehran, too, go as far as saying that Pakistan should “become like” Iran. The compromise agreement between Iran and Saudi Arabia gave Pakistan additional diplomatic space to explore strengthening its ties with Iran.
Saudi Arabia remains an important ally of Pakistan, despite some ridges in recent years, from its growing relationship with India to the dispute over Riyadh’s position on Kashmir. Other events, including last year’s conflict between India and Pakistan, are giving Islamabad more incentive to consolidate its defense alliance with Riyadh.
Still, the decision to send so many troops and weapons to Saudi Arabia at such a critical time in the Iran war is surprising. There are a few possible explanations.
One is the need for Pakistan to signal to Saudi Arabia its commitment to the defense pact. Although Islamabad has condemned Iranian attacks on Saudi soil, it has not threatened to implement the agreement. (In Islamabad’s defense, the Saudi response to Taliban attacks on Pakistani forces along the Afghanistan-Pakistan border in recent months has also been muted.)
Pakistan also needs to ensure continued economic support from Saudi Arabia—especially due to Pakistan’s ties United Arab Emirates have taken a dive in recent months. Just a few days after the news emerged about the deployment of Pakistan’s army to Saudi Arabia last month, Islamabad he announced 3 billion dollars in new aid from Riyadh.
Pakistani officials have described the deployment to Saudi Arabia as a deterrent and he insisted that his military assets “are not there to attack anyone.” Pakistani soldiers saywill be used in training and advisory roles. Such a posture is clearly intended to show Iran that these military actions should not be considered provocative.
All spreads are equal to gambling. If the cease-fire between the United States and Iran ends, the war resumes, and more attacks by Iran hit Saudi Arabia, Pakistan will face great pressure on its military assets in the country to take a more kinetic role. Despite its commitment to a defense treaty, Islamabad would prefer not to use it—it does not want to be dragged into a war.
For Pakistan, the best outcome is an end to the Iran war. That would ease its security concerns and reduce the pressure it feels as time passes between Iran and its Arab rivals.
What we’re after
Modi visits UAE. Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi he visited Abu Dhabi last Friday and met with the President of the United Arab Emirates Mohamed bin Zayed Al Nahyan. The trip came a few weeks after India’s National Security Adviser Ajit Doval he visited UAE. Modi’s office provided detailed and effective information about the visit and cooperation between the two countries.
In fact, the partnership is one of India’s fastest growing ties in the Middle East, which is arguably overshadowed by its ties. a rapidly growing relationship with Israel. Although India’s relationship with the United Arab Emirates has improved over the past decade, the relationship has largely focused on energy and other economic cooperation.
Doval tour, incl promise which the two countries did in January to pursue strategic defense cooperation, promoting how friendship focuses on security, too. While New Delhi’s moves in Abu Dhabi are part of a broader effort to expand ties in the Middle East, they are also an opportunity: Pakistan’s strained relationship with the UAE gives India an opening.
Nepal opens investigation of former minister. Nepal’s new reformist government has done just that created a committee that will investigate public allegations against Sudan Gurung, who served as interior minister for just a few weeks before resigning last month. The media has reported elevated concerns about Gurung’s past banking and investment activities.
Gurung has not been formally accused of any wrongdoing, but said he would resign to avoid any conflict of interest. The case is an important test for Prime Minister Balendra Shah’s government, which ran on a promise to end corruption. Gurung himself is a prominent anti-corruption advocate and a leader in the protests that ousted the previous government in September.
The new Shah administration will want to move quickly to show that it will not hold back when it comes to its commitment to investigating and rooting out corruption.
Cricket in Bangladesh. Rare saliva broke out during a cricket match between Bangladesh and Pakistan in Sylhet, Bangladesh, on Tuesday. Pakistan striker Muhammad Rizwan seemed distracted by something in his vision, causing Bangladeshi goalkeeper Litton Das to become impatient.
Das asked Rizwan what he was doing and told him “focus on your shooting here.” Rizwan replied sharply, “Is that your concern?” Cricket commentators praised Rizwan for maintaining his composure, while blaming Das—one of Bangladesh’s biggest stars—for doing too many wrong things.
Microphone later it took Bangladesh players mocking Rizwan. Pakistani cricket fans might be hoping that all this would cheer up their national team, which has suffered bad drought in recent months. But Bangladesh won the match, completing a sweep continuously of Pakistan—for the first time for Bangladesh on its soil.
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Under the Radar
Prime Minister of Bangladesh Tariq Rahman done official request to China this month that likely raised eyebrows in India: He invited China’s support for the restoration project along the Teesta River in Bangladesh.
Like many waterways in South Asia, the Teesta is drying up, affecting fishermen and others who depend on water. China before shown willing to help. But there was no official request until this month, just after Bangladesh’s foreign minister visited Beijing.
A projected project is reported includes digging and repairing more than 60 miles of waterways at an estimated cost of nearly $1 billion. China is among the few countries in the wider region with the financial and technical resources to carry out the task.
However, the Teesta is a transboundary river that originates in India and flows down to Bangladesh through the region near the strategic Siliguri Belt—a narrow strip of land that provides the only land route from mainland India to its northeast. The Teesta has long been a point of tension for Bangladesh and India, which have yet to ink a plan to jointly manage the river.
Any Chinese work on the river would be done downstream, meaning it would not directly affect India. But given the sensitivity surrounding the river and its strategic location—not to mention the strategic rivalry between New Delhi and Beijing—it will not be ignored by Indian officials.
