Welcome to Foreign Policy‘s Southeast Asia Brief.
Highlights this week: President of Indonesia visit Moscow even when he signed the US defense agreement, Vietnam’s To Lam join forcesand surveys show Southeast Asian leaders would select China over the United States, if forced to choose.
Prabowo Rows Between Two Rocks
Indonesian President Prabowo Subianto met with Russian President Vladimir Putin in Moscow on Monday. According to the studies, the two presidents agreed to increase cooperation in energy and economic matters.
Fewer details than this are given. However, Indonesian Cabinet Secretary Teddy Indra Wijaya said the discussions included “long-term cooperation” in the oil and gas sector.
Indonesia is also looking at buying Russian oil to compensate for disrupted supplies from the Middle East, according to a statement from Russia’s energy minister.
In a short speech, Prabowo said that “he came to consult because the global geopolitical situation is facing very rapid development and change. We see Russia as having played a positive role in facing this uncertain geopolitical climate.”
On the same day, Indonesia and the United States announced a new defense cooperation agreement.
The agreement focuses on military modernization and capacity building, military training and education, and exercises.
The two countries are discuss an agreement that would allow US military aircraft to freely access Indonesian airspace.
In a way this is typical Indonesia. Since independence, his foreign policy philosophy has been to “row between two rocks,” or avoid siding with any power.
However, this combination of the summit and security diplomacy is also clearly Prabowo. Since his election in 2024, the Indonesian president has been on a mission to increase Indonesia’s international status.
For this reason, he has made frequent trips abroad to meet with other national leaders, often calling for diplomacy and peace.
Prabowo has also managed Indonesia to join both BRICS and the Peace Council of the President of the United States Donald Trump, and also dedication Indonesian Gaza peacekeepers. These are the kinds of decisions that other presidents might have gotten away with.
Security issues have been another major aspect of his diplomatic thrust. In February, Prabowo led a strike by a a new security agreement including Australia. This followed to be established of the new Joint Dialogue of the Ministers of Foreign Affairs and Defense with China in 2025.
The actual results are still unclear. In particular, the decisions to be close to the United States and involve Indonesia in the Middle East have been seen as controversial within the country.
Others see Prabowo as weak on the Palestinian issue. The recent deaths of three Indonesian peacekeepers as part of the contingent—one killed by Israel and two likely killed by Hezbollah, according to a United Nations investigation— escalated the conflict.
Talk of overflight rights, a privilege usually offered to partners, has also raised eyebrows. The Ministry of Foreign Affairs has he was privately warned the defense ministry that it risks involving Indonesia in possible conflicts in the South China Sea.
In this context, the visit to Russia and the obvious domestic advantage of obtaining oil may well decline.
Vietnam’s To Lam becomes president. For Lam it was unanimous selected the president of Vietnam and the Parliament of that country last Tuesday. Earlier this year he was also re-appointed to the more powerful position of general secretary of the Communist Party of Vietnam.
Lam has succeeded in his push to put power in his own hands, abandoning the shared leadership system that Vietnam used to have.
Selected as the prime minister was Le Minh Hung, former governor of the central bank of Vietnam. Le’s tech credentials match Lam’s aggressive drive to drive growth. He also seems to be close to Lam personally. Le’s father used to be Lam’s boss.
Lam has followed his election to a visit to China this week.
Vietnam has been strengthening relations with China in fields including trade, technology and security. But Lam has also moved on to cultivate close ties with the United States, joining Trump’s Peace Council.
Singapore holds firm on Hormuz. Singapore has no plans to negotiate with Iran to allow its ships to pass through the Strait of Hormuz, Foreign Minister Vivian Balakrishnan said. he said answering a question in parliament.
Balakrishnan went on to say that the right to travel is enshrined in international law. “The Straits of Hormuz, like the Straits of Malacca and Singapore, are examples of Routes Used for International Navigation. There are no ifs, no buts, no questions, as far as we are concerned,” Balakrishnan said. “There is a cry of the means of transport. It is not a privilege to be granted by a neighboring country, it is not a license to be applied for, it is not a tax payment. It is the right of the ship to cross. This right is enshrined in the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea.”
Why has Singapore given up on this?
“You may be wondering why I am taking such a legal and strict definition. Not because I am very concerned with the law, but because the Straits of Malacca and Singapore are actually another important point,” Balakrishnan explained. He noted that the Strait of Malacca was not only narrower than Hormuz, but also witnessed a greater flow of marine oil and more container trade through it.
The comparison is not perfect. Like Economist he notedIf the Straits of Malacca were to be closed, much trade could be diverted to other passages. But Singapore’s economy is built on its status as a business hub. Other Southeast Asian countries—including Malaysia, the Philippines, Thailand, and Vietnam—have contracts and Iran for safe passage.
Police are sprayed by revelers taking part in a massive water fight on the first day of Songkran, or Thai New Year, in Bangkok on April 13.Anthony Wallace/AFP via Getty Images
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Numbers of the week: ASEAN favors China
If forced to choose, a small number of key decision makers in the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) would favor China over the United States, 52 percent to 48 percent.
That is according to the State of Southeast Asia report and the ISEAS-Yusof Ishak Institute, which interviewed government officials, civil society representatives, and key private sector decision makers in the region. In 2025, America had enjoyed such a low number.
Two things to note here. First, this referendum was held before the US attack on Iran created an economic crisis in the region. The current situation in the United States could be worse. Second, there are significant differences between countries on this issue. Indonesia (80.1 percent) and Singapore (66.3 percent) are seen as pro-China, with the latter seeing the biggest surge in pro-China sentiment since 2025. Meanwhile, the Philippines still favors the United States.
Changes reflect different things. The most surprising is the fear of the United States. When asked to rank their geopolitical concerns, poll participants listed the leadership of the United States under Trump as their top concern. The second biggest concern was the operations of the fraud center, evidence of how large and disruptive these criminal enterprises have become.
China’s aggressive behavior in the South China Sea ranked only third – whereas in 2025 this was the top concern. At the same time, China continues to be seen as the most influential country in the region.
More than half of respondents ranked Beijing as the most economically influential nation, and 40 percent ranked it as the most politically and strategically influential.
While the above statistics have generated a lot of buzz in the news, they do not reflect the region’s priorities. First, when given a choice, 55.2 percent said ASEAN should not side with any power and instead try to strengthen itself so that it can lead its own course. Second, the power of both sides was widely welcomed, with more than half of respondents concerned about the growing economic and strategic influence of China and the United States in the region. Third, when asked about the biggest challenges facing Southeast Asia, the top three issues were climate change, economic competition between major nations and domestic political stability.
Great-power geopolitics, in other words, is not a high priority.
