A blasphemous speech, full of complaints in what should have been a happy event. A last-minute cancellation of a rare bipartisan signature bill in favor of another push for unanticipated, unpopular legislation. Fierce confrontations with members of his party followed by insulting words about some of the nation’s veteran allies. And a nonsensical accusation that, if we’re right, blames the algae-filled Lincoln Memorial Pond not on its hasty repairs but on knife-wielding vandals … and maybe Barack Obama.
And that was just yesterday.
For President Trump, things are not going well. He usually thrives in chaos, relishing the unpredictability to keep his opponents off balance. But right now, he’s just laughing. Despite his great long-term ability to know how to control the national conversation and change it quickly, but he has failed to shake the results of the war with Iran that increased the price for the Americans and weakened the status of that country in the world. Trump’s poll numbers have plummeted. Republicans fear repeal in November. Frightened and fed-up GOP members are beginning to defy their president. Trump, whose political image revolves around power, finds himself on the wane.
At this time about a year agoTrump had it was overtaken by Washington. He had cut tariffs, started a trade war, angered longtime international allies, cracked down on border crossings, and dismissed the federal government. Democrats struggled to slow him down; At the same time, Trump openly contemplated defying the Constitution to run for a third term in 2028. On the Fourth of July, he capped the excitement by signing into law a comprehensive and expensive bill—which he called, in typical Trump fashion, the One Big Beautiful Bill Act—in a ceremony outside the White House complete with a B-2 nuclear bomb that housed Iran’s B-2 facility.
But as this Independence Day approaches — the nation’s half-century — Trump can’t control the political narrative about the war he didn’t go as he expected. A memorandum of understanding signed last week extended a shaky ceasefire and led to the first round of talks involving Vice President Vance. Many issues remain, including the fate of Iran’s uranium enrichment program and its control in the Strait of Hormuz. Negotiations can take months.
This is not what Trump wants to hear. He has been tired of this war for a while, and in the West Wing, there was competition to be had. Partners have told us there are also quiet, closed-door doubts: What exactly did the conflict achieve? Few, if any, of the president goals were reached. Iran can close the channel again. Yet Trump has tried hard to spin this as a victory, even as he abandons some of his objections. He has taken to Truth Social repeatedly this week to defend the plan and once again see about comparison to the agreement that Obama made more than a decade ago. Trump continued to wonder what would happen next—even suggesting a resumption of the bombing campaign if Iran did not comply, a threat few are taking seriously. Its attempts at unpredictability were entirely predictable, and Iran has proven itself to be nothing but fearsome.
Still, many in Trump’s circle tell us they believe the war won’t have much political staying power. Their focus, at least for now, is not the long-term impact on the Middle East or America’s international relations, but the political moment ahead of the midterms. They hope that the war will soon be forgotten—that the tide will open again, that the price of gas will drop, that the bombs will no longer need to fall. Assistants pointed us to a number of major events, including a series of Supreme Court decisions and even the World Cup, that could overshadow the war in the national consciousness. “Midsummer is months away,” one official told us. “We will have a lot of changes during that time.”
But so far, Trump’s efforts are not working. And when his temper flared yesterday, he lashed out at senators who have served him faithfully – and whose support he cannot lose.
Ttensions between Trump and Senate Republicans have been building for months. The president angered party leaders by endorsing the primary challenger of Sen. Bill Cassidy of Louisiana, who lost his bid for a third term. Trump then angered them by booing Sen. John Cornyn of Texas in favor of his scandal-plagued main rival, the state’s Attorney General. Ken Paxton– a move that seemed to end Cornyn’s punishment in last month’s previous iteration. Senate Majority Leader John Thune had strongly endorsed Cornyn, a former member of the Senate GOP leadership, and the party’s campaign arm spent millions of dollars boosting his candidacy before Trump overruled them.
Senate Republicans gave Trump much of what he wanted last year, but now he faces some opposition as the GOP’s prospects in this year’s midterms look grim. Buoyed by conservative supporters such as Sen. Mike Lee of Utah, Trump has tried to pressure Republicans to repeal or bypass the 60-vote filibuster limit to pass legislation known as SAVE America Actwhich would require people to provide proof of citizenship when registering to vote and a photo ID when voting. (Also, in some versions, it would significantly reduce voting by mail.) Republicans have never had a majority in favor of eliminating the filibuster, and Trump’s refusal to acknowledge that fact has frustrated senators.
In addition, Trump’s efforts to force members of his own party to retire have created the so-called “YOLO Caucus” in the Senate, as Republicans such as Cassidy, Cornyn, and Thom Tillis of North Carolina (who announced his retirement soon after announcing his opposition to the One Big Beautiful Bill Act last year) have felt the criticism of the president’s election last year. Tillis, in particular, has dismissed some of Trump’s views with the electorate with a new zeal — him. to be called Bill Pulte, acting director of national intelligence, “an incompetent man.” And Cassidy he denied the administration’s deal with Iran as “the worst foreign policy blunder in decades.”
The intra-party dispute came to a head yesterday, when Trump abruptly canceled the signing ceremony for a major house bill—a rare example of significant bipartisan legislation—and demanded that Republicans first pass the pro-SAVE America Act if they want his approval. Things went from there. During a meeting with Senate Republicans in the Capitol, Trump accused them of allowing (through a combination of insubordination and absence) the passage of a resolution seeking to limit his ability to wage war against Iran. Cassidy confronted him about the plan, and the two got into a heated argument in which Trump at one point reportedly told the senator to sit down. “I’m not apologizing for standing in front of the president,” Cassidy said he told reporters later. “I’m sticking up for the American people, even if I’m talking to the president.”
Naturally, Trump declared the whole thing a success anyway. “We had a very good meeting,” he told reporters. “We love our leader. We love our party. We love, really, everyone in the room — I don’t like a few people, but that’s okay.” The president was surrounded by three of his supporters: Senators Rick Scott of Florida, John Barrasso of Wyoming, and Lee, who were all wearing Trump-style red ties. Thune stood off to the side, his blue tie looking—intentionally or not—like a small declaration of independence. By nightfall, the standoff between Trump and Senate Republicans appeared to be easing — at least for now. The Council took a symbolic vote on the war powers resolution and defeated it. Two Republicans overturned their votes; one of them was Cassidy. White House officials pointed to that as a sign of Trump’s continued hold on the GOP.
When we reached the White House for comment, spokeswoman Taylor Rogers responded with a list of the president’s accomplishments and added: “President Trump is the leader of the free world, and thanks to his courageous leadership, America has never been stronger.”
In the face of this struggleTrump has continued to try to create his own reality. He returned to the White House from the Hill for a meeting with NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte. However, even as Rutte praised him, Trump took the time to attack some key NATO members for not helping in the Iran war, and he lashed out at Italy as part of a diplomatic row that began when the president claimed that his prime minister, Giorgia Meloni, “asked” him for a photo at the G7 summit last week. Meloni denied that, which angered Trump.
But Trump was more angry about something closer to home. As part of his larger effort to make Washington in his own image, he took on the project of renovating the Reflecting Pool. What he got instead was an on-the-nose metaphor for the state of his presidency: a no-bid contract for tyrant which went over budget, ended in failure, and caused the dam to be policed by federal troops. The dam liner has split, and the water has turned a stubborn green—far from the “blue of the American flag” that Trump intended. But instead of taking responsibility, Trump has indulged in conspiracy theories.
He, predictably, has turned America’s birthday into his own memorial. Plans for a concert on the National Mall to kick off the festivities turned into a pro-Trump rally, and many music artists backed out once they realized how partisan the event was. Trump continued anyway, making himself the headliner of last night with a few C-listers as his opening acts. But his heart was not seen in him when he was giving short speech which included some proposals for the establishment of a republic and many complaints. He spoke from behind bulletproof glass, and the crowd was small by Trump standards. Social media footage showed many people leaving while he was still speaking.
Trump, ever on trend, posted on social media today that he had a great crowd and that “everybody stayed put until the end of my speech.” He did not pay attention to the latest news from the Middle East: Despite the ceasefire agreement, Iran. to be shot ship attempting to pass through the Strait of Hormuz, which underscored the challenges that lie ahead in the negotiations. Try as he might, Trump can’t change the subject.
