President Donald Trump’s repeated insults against Iranian leaders are alarming some Arab and American officials familiar with the Middle East who worry that such insults could be a major obstacle to ending the war that has crippled the world economy.
At the heart of their concern is whether Trump is willing to show Tehran’s Islamist leaders enough respect to let them claim some measure of victory, even if they agree to US demands that leave them militarily weaker.
But Trump’s history of nursing grudges, mocking opponents and insisting he wins everything does not bode well for those who hope diplomacy can bring about the war, according to interviews with 10 current and former US and Arab officials.
“He wants this to end,” a senior Arab Gulf official familiar with the peace talks said of Trump. “But the Iranians so far refuse to give him what he needs to save face and leave. And he doesn’t seem to understand that they need to save face too.”
Like several others, the official was not named to discuss sensitive diplomatic issues. Some have direct experience dealing with Iran and said that while saving face is important in any diplomatic negotiation, it is especially important to Iranians for domestic cultural and political reasons.
Secretary of State Marco Rubio said Tuesday that the talks were aimed at creating a roadmap for future negotiations.Axios reported laterthat negotiators were preparing a memo to declare the end of the war and give themselves 30 days to prepare a longer-term agreement. A senior Gulf official familiar with the peace talks confirmed that there had been progress towards agreeing on a basic framework.
Asked about the status of the talks, White House spokeswoman Anna Kelly said “negotiations are ongoing.”
It’s good, said Michael Ratney, the former US ambassador to Saudi Arabia, that Trump could not say anything while his delegation was dealing with the Iranians. “Not a tweet, not a public comment, not a threat, not a compliment. Just let the negotiators discuss it,” Ratney said.
But that’s not how Trump usually works.
In recent weeks, Trump has called Iranian officials “crazy bastards” who are “mentally ill.” He has threatened to destroy Iran’s “entire civilization”. He has also repeatedly said that the United States has already defeated Iran in that war.
Trump has embraced many of those insults and threats while his delegation wants to end the conflict through negotiations that has affected access to oil, fertilizers and other important products for the world economy.
The Iranians have responded with insults of their own.
Tehran has released everything from Lego videos mocking Trump to hijacking social media posts. In mid-April,Tehran Times of the governmentIran’s National Organization for Psychology and Counseling has “called for an evaluation of the mental health of American political leaders, especially Donald Trump, in the interest of world peace.”
Trump’s disdain for Iran’s clerical leadershipit goes back almost 50 years. It is driven to some extent by the administration that takes the Americans hostage shortly after the Iranian revolution ousted its shah from power in 1979. He has also said that he will only agree to the agreement that is.better than what President Barack Obama achievedand Iran in 2015 — a deal that Trump later abandoned.
Tehran, meanwhile, has little faith in Trump. Iranian officials felt frustrated by Trump’s first-term decision to withdraw from the Obama-era deal. They were also angered by his actions in the second termundermining diplomatic negotiationsand military strikes. Such attacks destroyed Iran’s nuclear arsenal and killed many of its top officials, including Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.
Kelly, the White House spokesman, said that “what the administration says publicly does not match what they say privately.”
“The president will only accept an agreement that puts the national security of the United States first,” he added.
It is natural for both sides of diplomatic negotiations to want to emerge from the conflict declaring victory. The question in this conflict is whether each side can follow the other side and claim victory, officials and analysts said.
The 2015 nuclear deal showed that the Tehran government could agree to an arrangement in which it and the US leave claiming success. During the process – to the chagrin of many Iran hawks – Obama and his aides showed respect and restraint to Iran.
On the contrary, Trump has insisted on the “unconditional surrender” of Iran. He has also made demands to go beyond what Iran has described as its red lines, such as insisting that Tehran completely stop enriching uranium.
Iran’s regime is repressive, but it should still be concerned about how ordinary Iranians perceive it, current and former US and Arab officials said. If Trump insists he won over Tehran in the negotiations, that could make the administration look weak, and lead to domestic unrest.
Trump’s claims reflect “a misconception that Iran will dominate,” said Nate Swanson, who has covered Iran as a national security official under multiple administrations, including Trump’s. “This has not happened and will not happen no matter how much pressure Iran is under.”
During his Tuesday meeting at the White House, Rubio acknowledged that Iran has shown a high level of tolerance for economic pain but said the US sanctions on Iranian ships and ports are an attempt to push the administration to the wrong end. He also took a Trumpian tone in warning Iran of “generational annihilation” for its economy, thoughquoting rapper Ice Cube. “They should check themselves before they get down on themselves,” Rubio said.
Iranian culture in general keeps the odd outhigh face saving value. Shame is carried not only by the individual but also by their family or the nation. Many Iranians, even those who despise the Islamic regime, are appalled by American intervention in their country, such as the CIA’s role in the 1953 revolution that strengthened the monarchy.
Some supporters of US-Israeli military action against Iran said Trump’s remarks were an important tactic designed to pressure Iran into making more concessions at a time when it is unusually weak.
While Iran has a stranglehold on the Strait of Hormuz, Trump’s own restrictions and refusal to prevent further military strikes give him greater leverage over Tehran, they say.
“Part of the president’s strategy seems to be aimed at forcing Tehran to choose between saving face and losing its head,” said Behnam Ben Taleblu, an Iran analyst at the hawkish Foundation for Defense of Democracies, which supports US and Israeli attacks on Iran.
Some diplomats following the talks closely pointed out that Iran, having watched Trump for many years, may be more charitable in what its members say in private than what he says in public.
“The real question is not whether Trump’s voice is important – it is important. The real question is whether there is a way back that will compensate,” one Arab diplomat said.
Trump has shown in the past that he can switch from attacking to lying about the enemy. In his nuclear dealings with North Korea’s Kim Jong Un, Trump shied away from mocking Kim as “Rocket Man” and said the two “loved each other.”
But even with historic face-to-face meetings, Trump and Kim never signed an agreement, and North Korea has increased its nuclear arsenal.
Some leaders and analysts wonder if Iran will take a page out of North Korea’s playbook and eventually pursue nuclear weapons regardless of any deal with the United States now. After all, Trump is not threatening to attack Pyongyang.
In any case, Iran’s leadership “places a high value on dignity and respect, despite their often crude behavior,” said a former senior Western official who has worked with Iranian officials. “In their eyes, the brutal comments from the Trump White House are costing America and affirming their sense of self-worth in standing up to an evil and immoral opponent.”
