On a recent episode of Today, It’s ExplainedI looked into the ongoing succession battle for Donald Trump, and whether the president who has upended the Republican Party is actively involved in deciding who might succeed him.
The short version: The MAGA succession race, which is already underway, is being run through Vice President JD Vance and Secretary of State Marco Rubio, and Trump has every incentive to keep everyone guessing as to how it will end.
As a guest host Today, It’s ExplainedI spoke with my former colleague, New York Times reporter Maggie Haberman, who has covered Trump for years, and recently released a new book, Change of Administration: Inside the Royal Presidency of Donald Trumpwhich he shared with Times reporter Jonathan Swan.
Here are three things that stuck:
1. It is Vance to lose – but not given
“Vance is the presumptive frontrunner right now, and it’s hard for me to see who else it could be,” Haberman said. Rubio, Donald Trump Jr., and the Turning Point network have all indicated they are lining up behind the vice president as Trump’s successor. Rubio has gone so far as to tell Vanity Fair that if Vance runs, “he will be our nominee, and I will be one of the first people to support him.”
But being a pioneer is not the same as being anointed. Change of Administration it lays out the real fault lines between Trump and his vice president; on the Iran strike and the Epstein files, Vance frequently landed on the other side of the president. As for the decision to go to war, Haberman reported, Vance “was the only one who argued strongly with the president,” and “it cost him and Trump.”
That mistake may be remembered when the next Republican primary comes around.
2. Trump plans to stick around
The biggest obstacle to a clean hand may be that Trump doesn’t want one. “Trump doesn’t want to give up the platform to anybody,” Haberman said. “The second he anoints someone or endorses someone or whatever, the clock starts ticking on his own importance.”
And there’s nothing in his history, he added, to suggest he’ll ride quietly into retirement: “There’s nothing in his history to suggest he’s just going to paint like George W. Bush.” Whoever wins the Republican nomination in 2028 should expect Trump to still be standing by them — and still expect to be applauded.
3. Trump is still sticking with Rubio over Vance
Even if the field seems settled, Trump keeps reminding Vance that it isn’t. The most obvious event in Change of Administration comes from an October dinner in the Blue Room of the White House, with Rupert Murdoch and News Corp. executives. at the table with Vance and Rubio. Trump turned to Murdoch and asked him what he thought of JD. “JD has the potential to be great,” Murdoch offered — a direct response from the man who tried to talk Trump out of nominating Vance in the first place. “Thank you very much, Rupert,” Vance said.
Then Trump asked, “Well, what about Marco?” Murdoch’s response, according to Haberman: “Marco is brilliant.” After that, Haberman says, the table “became uncomfortable.”
There is no evidence that Rubio is running — “quite the opposite,” Haberman said. But Trump has always pitted his opponents against each other, and by Haberman’s account, he has better personal chemistry with Rubio than with Vance — a surprising turn given the “Little Marco” brutality of 2016.
Will Vance get the approval he needs? “I think anyone who relies on anything by Donald Trump is often going to end up disappointed,” he said.
There’s a lot more in the full podcast, so take a listen Today, It’s Explained wherever you find podcasts, incl Apple Podcasts, Pandoraand Spotify.
