The Iran war is eroding America’s influence around the world and deepening tensions with countries already under attack from President Donald Trump’s second term — an erosion of power that could be difficult to reverse as America’s adversaries such as China seize the opportunity.
From Bangladesh to Slovenia, oil rationing has crippled travel, frustrating leaders dealing with the fallout from wars they didn’t want. In Muslim-majority countries, anti-American narratives abound, often with tacit permission from the government. Even America’s NATO allies have reduced their support for the United States, with some insisting the Trump administration did not advise them before starting a war with Iran.
The war appears to have accelerated what some see as a rift between the United States and much of the planet since Trump returned to power and began shifting U.S. economic and military power in random ways, including tariffs.
“A lot of people are fed up with how chaotic this war has become and fear the potential economic impact, but I haven’t seen any major protests in response,” said a Washington-based Asian diplomat, speaking on condition of anonymity because the topic is sensitive. “If a wiser person becomes the next president, the image of the United States may improve, but for policymakers this raises difficult long-term questions about the alliance, how far we can go to stay in line with the United States and what we should do if we can no longer rely on the United States.”
In the latest sign of foreign isolation, Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney described his country’s economic relationship with the United States as a “weakness” to fix.video message released on Sunday.
“We have to take care of ourselves because we can’t rely on one foreign partner,” said Carney, who has been increasingly critical of Trump over some of his threats to Greenland. “We cannot control the disruption that is coming from our neighbors. We cannot bet our future on the hope that it will suddenly stop.”
Trump’s repeated hesitations about what he wants to accomplish in Iran have not inspired confidence, some former US officials say.
“Allies don’t know what to believe, opponents don’t know what to fear, and his Cabinet doesn’t know what his strategy or intentions really are,” said Thomas Wright, a former National Security Council official in the Biden administration who focused on long-term strategy. “The long-term forecast is not final. But the question is what China, Russia, North Korea and Iran will do in the next two years and nine months if this situation continues.”
Asked for her opinion, White House spokeswoman Anna Kelly said Trump’s America First approach has translated into better trade deals, strengthened cooperation to fight drug trafficking and increased defense spending with allies.
“World leaders have talked about the threat posed by Iran for 47 years, but no one has had the courage to address it,” Kelly said. “When all our goals are achieved, including eliminating the Iranian nuclear threat for good, the whole world will be safer, stronger and better off.”
Sparks fly over energy prices
Since the US and Israel started war with Iran on Feb. 28, the world’s energy sector is surrounded by the closure of the Strait of Hormuz and Iran’s attacks on the energy centers of the Middle East.
The United States, which was already the world’s largest producer of oil and gas, has seen its influence on energy markets strengthened in recent times, but that success.it may be short-lived.
Asian countries grappling with volatile energy prices – some of which have ordered to work at home or freeze exports to conserve oil – have vowed to speed up deployment of renewable energy and restart nuclear power plants. Europe, keen to learn its lesson from Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, wants to avoid dependence on a single energy supplier. Insteadplans to expand energy efficiency and renewable energy programsand deploy more electric vehicles.
Countries that want to reduce the shocks from fossil fuels such as shortages and sudden price increases – all of which have led to a negative situation of slow growth and rising costs – have come to look at alternatives such as solar energy, batteries and electric vehicles as needed. Many canto return to Chinawhich controls the bulk of the solar energy supply chain. Beijing produces low-cost electric cars and controls an abundance of minerals for clean energy and batteries.
“The goal here is not just to survive the shock. It is to use this period of uncertainty to build a foundation for more lasting stability,” Asian Development Bank President Masato Kanda said last week at a Council on Foreign Relations event in Washington.
Energy Department spokesman Ben Dietderich directed POLITICO to comment that Energy Secretary Chris Wright made in a Sunday appearance on CNN. Wright criticized the effectiveness of subsidies to promote renewable energy and said the US would maintain its influence through oil and gas.
“We are the largest exporter of oil in the world and by far we are the largest exporter of natural gas,” he said.
A few friends on the battlefield
The crisis in US military alliances has been difficult to ignore as the war progresses.
In previous wars in the region, US presidents have been able to gather even reluctant allies for a reason. That includes the Trump administration asking for help in defending Israeli cities and civilian infrastructure in the area due to Iran’s attacks last year.
This time the Trump administration did not inform even its closest allies before, according to two diplomats from European countries, and.he has not made it clear he is askingthey since.
That has had an effect. To deal with the closure of the strait, Britain and France have called several meetings with several allied nations, but not the United States, to plan a plan to keep the strait open after the war is over.
European planwill have the goal of carrying out protection activitiesprotecting commercial vessels in the strait, but the timing, and the forces involved, is still a work in progress.
This comes when the European Union is also exploring ways to strengthen the common defense system of the union,Article 42.7if it is tested in a move that could be seen as a response to the Trump administration’s threats to take Greenland by force.
Still, the United States’ defense relationship is so pervasive around the world that it is difficult to untangle. Trump has repeatedly threatened to appease some of them (including leaving NATO), but has not taken any serious steps in that direction. Many countries, although disillusioned by Trump, still want US military power on their side.
On Monday, the United States and the Philippinesbegan large-scale military exerciseswhich is expected to include Japan and Canada and serve as a warning to China.
In the Middle East, US attacks against Iran have produced mixed responses.
Israel has been a major ally in the war against Iran, and seems intent on weakening the Islamic Republic as much as possible if it cannot topple the regime outright.
While the countries of the Persian Gulf tried to prevent the United States from its first attacks against Iran, many countries have been angered by Iran’s retaliatory attacks on their soil. The United Arab Emirates, for one, has increasingly supported the US-led war effort, as it isit is said to have increased the likelihoodmay require a financial channel from Washington.
Diplomatic conflicts
The Iran war has also damaged the reputation and instability of the United States in countries where American efforts to strengthen relations face fierce competition.
In a State Department cable written Thursday, U.S. diplomats at the U.S. Embassy in Dushanbe, Tajikistan, warned that “the crisis in Iran has led to the emergence of an anti-American narrative in Tajikistan’s fragile media environment as foreign actors increase their influence and domestic media outlets monitor clicks and out.”
The piece, recently obtained by POLITICO, added, “Our competitors are using resources to ensure narrative governance in a country that is at the crossroads of China, Afghanistan, Russia and Iran.”
Similar cables sent from US diplomats in Bahrain, Indonesia and Azerbaijan – nowas previously reported by POLITICO– also described the proliferation of anti-American messages and warned that, in some cases, American security and diplomatic relations are at risk.
When asked for his opinion, US State Department spokesman Tommy Pigott shared a stock statement he used earlier: “President Trump’s actions are making the United States, future generations and the world safer by preventing the Iranian regime from obtaining nuclear weapons. That is the truth, and the entire administration is stuck in that effort.
Trump’s actions in Iran have further alienated some of America’s allies when he launched a “Peace Board” that was designed as a tool to help implement the agreement between Israel and Hamas in the Gaza Strip, but those critics grew suspicious that it was designed to replace the United Nations. Hungary and Bulgariathey were the only two members of the EUofficially joining the board when it was launched in February. Other EU countries stayed long on sending only observers, and Belgium reiterated its reluctance on Monday.
Belgian Foreign Ministry spokesman David Jordens told POLITICO his country has no intention of donating money through the Peace Council.
Still, Trump supporters say any immediate pain from the US president’s move in Iran will be worth it in the long run.
Alexander Gray, who served as the top National Security Council official in Trump’s first term, said the decision to go after Iran and its escalating activities now “will pay off for future presidents.”
Daniella Cheslow and Phelim Kine contributed to this report.
