People on motorcycles watch a damaged car being towed away by a tow truck, with a mural in the background depicting the US embargo against Cuba, on a street in Havana on April 28, 2026. | Yamil Lage/AFP via Getty Images 
“We can go through Cuba after we’re done with this,” President Donald Trump reflect earlier this month during remarks about the war in Iran, one of several times in recent weeks that he has said Cuba will be “the next” on the governance change agenda.
The administration stepped up its “high pressure” campaign against Cuba in January, shortly after the arrest of Venezuela’s president and key Cuban ally Nicolas Maduro, severely restricting oil imports to the island as it stands. they are already facing frequent power outages across the country. Now the Pentagon is there organize various military elections by taking action on the island. Senate Democrats are alarmed enough by they denounce that they have sponsored the law prevent military action against the nation.
Amidst those threats, the talks are also going on. US Department of State delegation visited Havana earlier this month, marking the first time a US government plane has arrived in Cuba since the brief confrontation under the Obama administration. The US delegation brought a list of demands including economic reforms, the release of political prisoners, compensation for US residents and corporations whose assets were confiscated in the Cuban revolution, and allowing Starlink internet connection to the island.
Since Fidel Castro came to power in 1959, every US president has been struggling with the question of what to do about the Castro regime established 90 miles off the coast of the United States. New operations to remove the head in Venezuela and Iran, Trump seems confident that he can solve the problem.
“All my life I have been hearing about the United States and Cuba: when will the United States do that? I believe I will be honored, honored to take Cuba.” has said.
But what does “taking” Cuba mean? The dream of the opponents of the regime in Cuba and the United States is the removal of the communist regime followed by the removal of the American sanctions. But it is more likely to be something short of that.
This administration seems to have an adequate understanding of the concept of “change of government” which does not seem to indicate governance. removed. The United States has left the former Vice President of Maduro, Delcy Rodriguez in power in Venezuela with the threat of more military action if he leaves power. After the assassination of the Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and many other high-ranking officials in Iran, Trump has said that the country’s new government is “less radical and more reasonable,” although unlike Rodriguez, they seem to disagree with his wishes.
So how can Trump “replace” the Cuban government, and what would that mean for the Cuban people?
Will a Venezuelan model work in Cuba?
Cuba has been under US sanctions since the early 1960s, but in Trump’s second term, the pressure campaign against the island has increased significantly. In early January, after the ouster of Maduro, the United States cut off oil supplies to Cuba from Venezuela, which was previously its main supplier. Later that month, Trump threatened tariffs against any country supplying oil to the island, prompting countries such as Mexico to freeze shipments. This is the closest thing to direct “blockade” of the island since the 1962 missile crisis – and exacerbated the nation’s dire economic situation. Food prices have been rising, garbage has been piling up on the streets, and even Cuba once the glorious health system is on the verge of collapsewith hospitals canceling surgeries and struggling to set up ventilators due to power outages.
“This is a different level of desperation,” said Chris Sabatini, senior fellow for Latin America at Chatham House. But the Cuban government has faced economic crises in the past, especially “special period” in the early 1990s after the collapse of the Soviet Union, its longtime guardian.” Despite Trump’s suggestions that the Cuban government could collapse on its own, there is little evidence that economic pressure alone would cause that to happen.
“What is not different is the almost natural need of the Cuban government to survive and defend itself, and its resistance to anything that could weaken its all-consuming power,” Sabatini added. “They have always been willing to let their people suffer as long as they stay in power.”
There are actually some signs that the Trump administration is easing oil restrictions. The US allowed a Russian oil tanker carry 100,000 tons of crude to arrive in Cuba at the end of March. Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum has also signaled her country may restart the shipment.
If the current Cuban leaders do not accept Trump’s demands, no matter how economic pressure is applied, can they be replaced by others? Trump may be hoping for a repeat of the Venezuela situation where an anti-American leader was replaced by a more lenient one, but that may not be an option in this case. Even if current President Miguel Díaz-Canel, who became Cuba’s first non-Castro president in 2021, could be forced into exile, it is unclear if there is a corporate alternative waiting in the wings.
“The Venezuelan government was a very different animal,” said Michael Bustamante, a professor of Cuban-American studies at the University of Miami. While the Venezuelan government is divided into factions and factions, some of which have long pushed for better relations with the United States, Cuba’s leadership is more ideological and united. “No one has a solid track record of standing up for economic emancipation, even in a formal way.”
The State Department has he was reportedly discussing with the 41-year-old grandson of former Cuban leader Raul Castroalso called Raul. “El Cangrejo,” or “the crab,” appears to be a business friend as well as the canal of his 94-year-old grandfather, who is officially retired but still seems to be very influential. But “Raulito” is generally seen by experts as an important interloper rather than a potential new leader.
In any case, cutting the treaty with Cuba that leaves a member of the Castro family in power would be against the spirit if it were not for the document of Helms-Burton Act of 1996, which prohibits the lifting of sanctions on Cuba as long as a government consisting of either Fidel or Raul is still in place.
Do the Cubans want the US to intervene?
Even if the administration’s plans for Cuba are somewhat unclear, Trump’s attention to the island has raised hopes among opponents of the Castro regime. Graffiti messages reading “Long live Trump” and “Make Cuba Great Again” have been appearing more often, Boris González Stadiuma prominent journalist and human rights activist in Havana, told Vox.
González Arenas warned against trying to analyze Cuban politics on a traditional leftist spectrum. Support for Trump, he said, is because “people see that pressure from the president of the United States can change the government in Cuba, and they know that the government is the cause of their situation – hunger, lack of medicine. They have no opportunity for elections.”
He believes the talks will bring about changes in the Cuban regime only if they are accompanied by a credible threat of military force. “If the Castroist leaders do not feel that their fate, property, and even life, are at stake, they will enter into negotiations without any compromise and real change.”
González Arenas said he would support military intervention “just to return freedom to the Cuban people” rather than replace Castro’s dictatorship with a pro-American one. “Cuba is not a country without the ability to govern itself; Cuba is a country hijacked by a group of criminals,” he added.
Do we believe Marco?
In some ways, Cuba seems like a surprising target for Trump. Unlike Venezuela, it does not sit on top of the world’s largest oil reserves. Unlike Iran, it does not have a nuclear weapons program. Although it has long supported other left-wing governments and militant groups in Latin America, it is hard to say that it poses a national security threat to America today. And the development of democracy has never been the main priority for this administration, even in countries where it has wanted to overthrow regimes.
Trump may be drawn to the notion of solving a problem that has vexed his 12 predecessors in office, but if there’s a force driving the current US pressure campaign, it’s Secretary of State Marco Rubio. Although Rubio has played a very low profile role in managing the Iran crisisThe secretary of state – whose parents were born in Cuba – has long prioritized US efforts to overthrow the Cuban government, was a key critic of Obama’s efforts to restore relations with the Castro regime, and has become the face of this administration. a more assertive posture towards Latin America.
“The only person in power today, in the entire political landscape in the United States, who would care enough to make Cuba a priority for the United States is Marco Rubio,” said Ricardo Herrero, executive director of the U.S.-based Cuba Research Group. “This makes him the greatest threat, but also the greatest opportunity that Cuba faces.”
He is an “opportunity” for Cuban leaders because he may be the only person in the United States who can lift the more than 60-year-old embargo. Rubio left open the possibility of removing restrictions in cases where there were “new people involved” and major economic reforms. But he also said Cuba “it doesn’t have to change overnight…everyone is mature and realistic here,” suggesting that anything short of a total overthrow of the communist government would be acceptable in the near future.
Depending on what it means in practice, that will be a tough pill to swallow for opponents of the administration on the island, Cuban-American exiles, and members of Congress who will have to lift the embargo. It may also be difficult to agree with the Helms-Burton Act, which stipulates the holding of free elections and the dismantling of Cuba’s national security department as conditions for lifting the embargo.
But in “Nixon to China”—as it stands, Rubio’s Cuba hawk bona fides could give him unique credibility for selling deals on Capitol Hill and in Miami.
“It’s going to be a hard sell, but I also think the Cuban American community has no other choice,” said Bustamante of the University of Miami. “‘In Marco we trust’ is a kind of vibe.”
But there will be no deal for Rubio to sell if the Cuban government is not willing to make major concessions. And with the Iran conflict continuing without a solution ahead, it is also unclear how much Rubio’s boss will prioritize another government change project.
