Welcome back to Global Briefing, where we cover the biggest issues NATOagenda, China a ballistic missile test, and an ancient funeral procession Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.
The future of NATO
It is a time of danger for the largest military alliance in the world. US President Donald Trump continues to undermine NATO by threatening to withdraw. Several member states are struggling to meet new defense spending requirements. Russia’s war against Ukraine is still a threat to European security. And differences over how to handle the Iran war risk exacerbating tensions between the allies.
Welcome to NATO 3.0.
Dozens of foreign leaders will meet in Ankara, Turkey, on Tuesday for this year NATO leaders meeting. According to the head of NATO Mark Rutte a two-day conference it will focus on strengthening Europe’s defense role in an effort to keep Washington involved in the alliance. This meeting it will be the beginning of a “defense industrial revolution” in the Atlantic, Rutte said at the Atlantic Council last month.
Among European members, the opinion of NATO remains high. A Pew Research Center study provided Monday found that more than 70 percent of people in Poland, Sweden, Germany, and Hungary view the union favorably. However, approval rates in several countries have declined—most notably in France, Italy, and the United States.
The White House, in particular, has grown increasingly disillusioned with the union, accusing members of placing their advocacy role in Washington. “The United States spends more money on NATO than any other country, by far, to defend them, without getting any benefit from doing so,” Trump. he wrote on Social Reality on Thursday.
At Trump’s urging, NATO allies agreed last year to increase theirs protection use to reach at least 5 percent of GDP by 2035. Several countries appear to be close to reaching this minimum level in time. However, the White House does not seem to be down. During this week’s summit, the US plans to “examine how our allies are expanding NATO’s capabilities to support ongoing cargo transfers here in continental Europe,” it said. Matt WhitakerUS ambassador to NATO, on Sunday.
“The United States remains a proud member of NATO,” Whitaker added. But “we have responsibilities elsewhere in the world as the world’s only superpower.”
“I have never been swayed by NATO,” Trump told reporters Telegraph in April. “I always knew they were paper tigers.” At the time, Trump failed to rule out withdrawing from the alliance. And just two months later, US Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth announced a six month review of the presence of the American army in Europe that some fear will be used as a smoke screen to reduce the number of American soldiers on the continent.
While the uneven use of defense has long frustrated Trump, NATO’s response to the Iran war (or lack thereof) has recently threatened to unravel the alliance. Trump has blamed NATO members for failing to adequately support US forces during the conflict, despite the alliance maintaining that doing so would cross NATO’s borders. This week, foreign leaders are expected to discuss international efforts access to the Strait of Hormuz.
However, a senior US official said ABC News Sunday that “many NATO partners) do not have the ships or assets needed to contribute to a meaningful maritime effort” despite the fact that “we have had many partners who raised their hands and volunteered to participate.”
Iran is it is not the only conflict on the NATO agenda this week. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky will also attend the press conference massive Western military support. All eyes may be on his meeting with Trump, during which Zelensky is present expected to ask for more receivers made in the USA. The meeting comes days after Russian missiles and drones attacked Ukraine, killing at least 20 people.
For more information on the NATO conference, subscribe FP Status Reportwhich will have special editions this week from reporters John Haltiwanger and Rishi Iyengar, who are on the ground in Ankara.
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The World This Week
Tuesday, July 7: A two-day meeting of NATO leaders begins in Turkey.
French President Emmanuel Macron concludes a two-day trip to Syria.
Wednesday, July 8: Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi is embarking on a three-day visit to Australia.
Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney begins a three-day trip to Saudi Arabia.
Thursday, July 9: Former Supreme Leader of Iran Ayatollah Ali Khamenei has been buried.
Nominations are open for the leadership contest of the British Labor Party.
Monday, July 13: France convenes a two-day meeting of the Voluntary Union.
What we’re after
Ballistic missile test. Chinese forces to be measured submarine-launched ballistic missile in the Pacific Ocean on Monday, the country’s first such test in nearly two years. According to Chinese Senior Captain Wang Xuemeng, a Chinese navy spokesman, the launch was part of Beijing’s annual military training schedule, and “relevant nations” were given advance warning. “The operation was in accordance with international law and practice, without targeting a specific country or target,” Wang said.
Still, the show clearly has increased anxiety about expanding Beijing’s military capabilities. Australian Foreign Minister Penny Wong called the test “destabilizing for the region,” New Zealand Foreign Minister Winston Peters described the launch as “unacceptable and concerning development,” and a Japanese government statement expressed “deep concern about China’s ongoing military activities.”
Monday’s launch came on the same day that Australia and Fiji he announced mutual defense agreement and regional security agreement. The agreement is part of Canberra’s efforts to increase regional support and roll back China’s influence in the Indo-Pacific region. Last week, Australia and Vanuatu signed a bilateral security agreement; On Tuesday, Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese will travel to the Solomon Islands for security talks; and on Wednesday, the Albanians will host the leaders of Tonga and Papua New Guinea, the latter of which signed a defense agreement with Australia in 2025 that will come into force on that day.
In memory Funeral procession of former Supreme Leader of Iran Ayatollah Ali Khamenei it started on Monday, with hundreds of thousands of people flooding the streets to try to see his coffin. Khamenei’s son and successor, Mojtaba Khamenei, who has not yet been seen in public. father’s death on February 28, when the American and Israeli forces launched an attack against Iran.
Mojtaba’s absence was further highlighted by the rare presence of former Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, who attended despite years of estrangement from the slain leader. Also seen at the demonstration organized by the government on Monday was a symbolic ceremony of “stoning the devil”. Although the Islamic tradition usually has pillar performers representing the devil, they attended on Monday instead. throwing pebbles on photos of Trump with a sniper’s mark on his forehead. Songs included “Death to America” and “Kill Trump.”
Funeral services began on Saturday and are expected to last almost a week. This time, negotiations to find a permanent ceasefire between the United States and Iran may be the main topic of the meeting of NATO leaders. According to Trump, talks were suspended this week to allow Khamenei’s funeral to take place.
The prosecution case. The Philippine Senate began prosecution cases on Monday against Vice President Sara Duterte, whose charges include publicly threatening to kill President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. and his associates, amassing untold wealth, and misappropriating government funds. If found guilty, he could be permanently barred from holding public office, eliminating his hopes of running for president in 2028.
“This is a time when the republic must show that the laws are applied equally to the powerful and the powerless alike,” said Rep. Gerville Luistrowho leads the prosecution team. The trial is expected to last 92 days. Duterte did not attend Monday’s hearing in person, and continues to deny all charges.
Despite holding completely different opinions than Marcos, Duterte joined his ticket in 2022 to get votes. However, the coalition quickly fell apart after the vice president blamed the president for his father’s arrest. Duterte is the daughter of former Philippine President Rodrigo Duterte, who was arrested last year by order of the International Criminal Court on charges related to his life. a strong anti-drug campaign.
Sara Duterte needs 15 out of 24 senators to vote for him so that he is not convicted. The Senate is already heavily pro-Marcos due to the recent ouster of pro-Duterte Senator Alan Peter Cayetano and the election of Marcos-favored congressman Sherwin Gatchalian as the chamber’s president. Any support for Duterte was further questioned on Monday, when Senator Rodante Marcoleta (a staunch ally of the vice president) was arrested for allegedly violating anti-corruption laws by accepting $1.2 million from private donors during his 2025 Senate run. Marcoleta has rejected any mistake.
Odds and Ends
The United States and Belgium will meet on Monday evening to determine who will advance to the quarterfinals of the World Cup. But while the stakes are high, the politics surrounding the match are even greater. In an unprecedented moveTrump personally urged FIFA President Gianni Infantino to review the one-game suspension of US forward Folarin Balogun, who received a red card in Wednesday’s match against Bosnia and Herzegovina for tripping an opponent’s ankle. On Sunday, FIFA announced it had lifted Balogun’s ban, and on Monday, rejected Belgium’s appeal.
Although many football experts questioned the red card decision at the time, Trump’s involvement has led to it anxiety caused that FIFA discriminates against Washington. “When the money shoots up, the World Cup loses all merit,” the Belgian Socialist Party said before Monday’s match. “Changing the rules to please Trump, trying to cheat to win – it’s a very bad picture for FIFA, for the soccer World Cup, and for the United States.”
