Welcome to Foreign PolicyOverview of China.
Highlights this week: The war in Iran tests ideas on US-China rivalry, the Struggle between China and Japan is increasing, and China’s artificial intelligence growth is driving a calculate the shortage.
Welcome to Foreign PolicyOverview of China.
Highlights this week: The war in Iran tests ideas on US-China rivalry, the Struggle between China and Japan is increasing, and China’s artificial intelligence growth is driving a calculate the shortage.
Who Comes Out Ahead From The Iran War?
With the United States faltering in its war against Iran, there has been an uproar among analysts announce China a winner of conflict. Many argue that the patience and restraint of Chinese President Xi Jinping has strengthened Beijing’s long-standing position over an increasingly disruptive and unstable Washington.
There is some truth here, especially when it comes to America’s loyalty to allies. The decision to pull US missile defense assets from South Korea, for example, is a disaster for the union. As I have seen before, the volatile nature of US President Donald Trump makes China look more and more like a solid alternative.
Still, I am wary of claims that Beijing will emerge as the clear winner from the Middle East conflict, which is based on a zero-sum view of US-China relations, where one’s defeat is another’s victory. This is, as the Chinese like to say – often time deviation criticism of human rights abuses, indeed—”Cold War Ideology.”
During the Cold War, the Soviet Union tried to compete with the United States on geographical and ideological grounds. That ideological focus is even weaker in today’s US-China rivalry, especially under a US administration that shows little interest in promoting liberal values, human rights or democracy.
China’s own prospects, for now, are also narrower. Unlike the Soviet Union, it does not have a wide official network, except for a de facto alliance with Russia and uncertain friendships with North Korea and Pakistan. Beijing wants to limit US influence in the Asia-Pacific, but has been happy to benefit from Pax Americana’s impact on peace, security, and international trade elsewhere.
While the Soviet Union became a major power after the world wars, China rose during decades of peace. Beijing has a strong interest in long-term US-led policies such as freedom of navigation outside his own field. America’s withdrawal from the international stage will be bad for China, holding on to roles it has no desire to take.
A war with Iran could prove a defeatist scenario for China and the United States. Although China is more than insulated from energy output than other parts of Asia, the disruption in the Strait of Hormuz still means a major impact on its oil imports. China is also not interested in a fully swayed Middle East, even if some Gulf countries will start leaning towards closer relations with Beijing.
Above all, the primary criterion for China’s leadership success is domestic and not global. That lens shapes how it interprets American actions. America’s failure to disrupt the global economy means an angry Chinese public—and that is a more immediate priority than competition abroad.
What we’re after
Struggle between China and Japan. A bitter dispute between China and Japan—instigated last year by Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi comments on defending Taiwan in the event of a Chinese attack—increased this week. In response to the Japanese battleship transportation through the Taiwan Strait, China sent its warships close to Japan’s territory.
Meanwhile, the Japanese parliament they voted lifted a long-standing ban on arms exports, prompting China to warn that its neighbor was moving “toward militarization.” There is a little space on either side of the drop. Takaichi’s tough stance on China is working well domestically, while Japanese nationalism and Taiwan independence remain highly sensitive to the Chinese public and leadership.
If the Xi-Trump summit goes ahead, Xi may pressure Trump to dominate Tokyo, as he did last year—but Takaichi would probably deflect such pressure again.
Capture of an American ship. China has they expressed concern on the arrest of the United States Navy Touskaa Iranian cargo shipin the Gulf of Oman on Sunday. The ship was reported to be used exporting goods from China, including potentially dual-use items that would violate sanctions on Iran.
Trump and US Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth previously rejected mind suggesting that China was supplying weapons to Iran, only back spaces Tuesday, when Trump said the ship may have been carrying a “gift” from China that was “not very good.”
A summit between Trump and Xi is still planned for mid-May, according to the White House, although China has yet to confirm that. Trump has appeared eager calm down Xi ahead of the talks, but his unusual remarks risk spoiling them.
Most Read FP This Week
Technology and Business
Calculate the shortage. China’s AI boom is putting a strain on AI systems like Moonshot and DeepSeek, due to a severe shortage of compute—meaning basic processing power which these systems are based on, are basically powered by advanced chips.
There’s a computing shortage around the world, but it’s especially bad in China, where US export controls have restricted access to the most advanced chips. The adoption of OpenClaw, an agent-based AI tool, in recent months has increased demand.
The cause Outages, suspensions, and resource allocations have annoyed the Chinese public, which is accustomed to easy access to cheap AI tools. As supply increases and consumer prices risePublic interest in the technology may wane.
Examination of Manus. China’s security apparatus has long harbored conspiracy theories, but an ongoing domestic purge appears to have pushed that trend into overdrive, with tech companies and regulators now feeling the effects.
Last year, Manus, a Chinese AI company, performed modestly regular marketing for Meta involving relocation to Singapore which was approved by the Chinese authorities. According to a Financial Times reportThe Chinese leadership then became convinced that the plan was a conspiracy against national security.
Manus’ founders have since been banned from leaving the country and are under investigation – another reminder that wealth can provide protection against many problems in China but not the wrath of the leadership.
