Victoria’s Liberals are planning to favor One Nation over Labor as an unlikely candidate in November’s state election, in a move former premier Steve Bracks warns will legitimize support for Pauline Hanson’s party and hasten the downfall of the traditional right-wing party.
While the final decision on preferences will be made on a seat-by-seat basis by the Liberal Party’s five-member government strategy committee once nominations close, two sources familiar with the committee’s thinking said that, in the absence of a specific candidate or other exceptional circumstances, One Nation would be favored over Labor.
The partisan strategy, while designed to fuel an anti-Labor vote across the state, risks conflict among Liberal voters in what remains of the party’s inner-city capital and suburbs, energizing the voter movement.
While it may contribute to Labor losing seats to One Nation in electorates such as Melton and Cranbourne, it makes holding John Pesutto’s seat of Hawthorn, Jess Wilson’s seat of Kew and Amelia Hamer’s seat in Malvern more dangerous.
The November 28 state election is the first in Victoria where One Nation is expected to have a major impact on the outcome. Bracks, who came to power shortly after Hanson emerged as a national political force, condemned any favoritism by his party.
“What it will do is legitimize One Nation and that is disgusting,” he told the Sorrento Writers’ Festival last week.
He says that the Liberal Party in Australia faces the same fate as the Republican Party in France and other right-wing parties around the world will disappear if it continues to dominate the right. “It will be the beginning of the end of the right-wing party in this country,” he said.
In further comments to this columnist, Bracks said the Liberal Party’s instinct to appease One Nation and its supporters was fueling the threat.
“They tell people it’s okay to vote for One Nation, we support them too. That’s a problem and that will tell on the Liberal Party.
“Deep down, the Liberal Party is not racist. But why do they favor One Nation if they are not racist? This is the conundrum they have forced themselves into.”
Liberal Party how-to-vote cards handed out in Nepean at pre-poll stations for Saturday’s by-election show the party’s direction in November.
Although One Nation’s Darren Hercus is considered the main challenger to Liberal candidate Anthony Marsh in the absence of a Labor candidate, the Liberals favor One Nation third in the poll ahead of local independent Tracee Hutchison. One Nation is also favoring the Liberal Party over Hutchison.
Neither Liberal nor One Nation preferences will flow into Nepean if the parties finish as expected in first and second place in the primary polls. One Liberal MP, who is not authorized to discuss internal party matters, described the preference decisions as a “show of goodwill” between the parties in the run-up to the November election.
The Liberal Party’s attempt to retain Nepean following the resignation of local MP Sam Groth is being hampered by concerns in party circles about the selection of Marsh as their candidate. Excluded Liberals last week paid for a full-page ad in the local paper, the Southern Peninsula Newsurging voters to reject Marsh.
Simon Schluter
Richard Doery, an 83-year-old member of the Liberal branch, said he voted for Hutchison because of concerns about Marsh’s candidacy, which was endorsed by local office-holders and the main party rather than a vote of members.
“The primary concern is that the Liberal Party decided not to allow local members to vote and choose a candidate,” Doery said. He added that he was “very unhappy with the One Nation”.
Marsh, the Mornington Peninsula Shire Mayor currently on leave from the council, who lives in Mount Martha just outside the Nepean electorate, says the main factor in the by-election is frustration with the long-standing Labor government. Hutchison agrees but says the concern about Marsh also hurts.
“We’ve really had a lot of support from long-time members of the Liberal party and voters who are frustrated with the by-election process and locked out of it and really want someone who will represent the electorate of Nepean, who lives in the electorate, who will vote in the by-election,” he said.
“Some of that motivation comes from long-time Liberals, but it also comes from a range of people who are looking for a place to park their vote.”
Nepean is One Nation’s first significant election test in Victoria since opinion polls began to show a surge in support for the party late last year.
It follows the South Australian state election in which One Nation stole the Liberal Party’s primary vote and reduced its representation from 16 seats to just five, and comes before a federal by-election in Farrer, where the Liberal and National parties favor One Nation over independent Michelle Milthorpe.
While Bracks says One Nation does not pose an immediate threat to Labor in Victoria, former ALP state deputy director turned pundit Kos Samaras believes One Nation will take seats from both major parties in November.
Samaras said that Opposition Leader Jess Wilson, who is a member of her party’s strategy committee that will decide the preference, was facing the same conundrum as Liberal leaders across the country.
“The Liberal Party in Victoria cannot win an election unless it wins central and inner-city seats in Melbourne. That is also where you will find anti-One Nation sentiment,” he said.
“What is Jess doing? If he doesn’t favor One Nation he’s revitalizing his right wing. If he favors One Nation he’ll collapse the small conservative vote in Melbourne. He’s got himself into this evil.”
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Chip The Great leads our state politics reporting team. He was previously the editor-in-chief of the magazine and is a writer with 30 years of experience.Connect through email address.
