Pauline Hanson’s political momentum may have peaked, with her popularity plummeting and grassroots support for One Nation falling to its lowest level in three months even as growing numbers believe the far-right party can win the next election.
An exclusive test by Resolve Political Monitor shows that in April, as the United States and Israel began their war against Iran, support for One Nation fell by two points as voters returned slightly to the major parties.
The same poll also reveals the changes Australians are making because of the war’s impact on petrol prices, with almost four in five people changing their driving habits or giving up travelling. More than one in four people also said the rising cost of living meant they were changing their spending patterns.
Made by Solve it from April 13 to 18, the 1807 referendum showed basic support for One Nation fell to 22 percent. It was the lowest support for the party since January when it was 18 percent. Despite the decline, it is still higher than the 6.4 percent that One Nation got in last year’s election.
Support for the Coalition rose one point to 23 per cent, the level it was just after Angus Taylor replaced Sussan Ley as Liberal leader in February. The Coalition is once again trailing One Nation on core support, but its one-point lead is within the poll’s margin of error.
Despite the improvement, the Union’s primary vote is down nearly nine points from last year’s dismal results.
Labour’s primary vote has returned to 32 per cent, after falling to 29 per cent in March. It remains short of the 34.6 percent that Anthony Albanese got in the May election.
Analyst Jim Reed said the failure of One Nation’s support could be caused by voters looking at issues that are not traditional drivers of interest for Hanson, such as the economy and international affairs.
“We may have reached ‘peak Pauline’, at least for the time being,” he said.
Although support for the Coalition has not changed since Taylor took office as leader, he remains positive among voters with an approval rating above 16. In contrast, Anthony Albanese has a minus 12 rating, a level that has been constant since February.
Albanese is only one point ahead of Taylor as the preferred prime minister, 33 percent to 32 percent, and 34 percent are undecided.
Thirty-seven percent of respondents rated Albanese’s performance as good, his highest since the start of the year, while 52 percent said it was poor. Taylor’s performance was rated good by 41 percent, more than the 26 percent who rated it poor. But a third of voters are still not sure about the Liberal leader, while only 10 percent are not sure about the prime minister.
There are positive signs for new Nationals leader Matt Canavan. He registered a record eight more than potential supporters, putting him behind Taylor, Liberal leader Andrew Hastie and One Nation defector Barnaby Joyce (both on 10).
His popularity has helped the overall status of the Patriots. His overall popularity has risen from minus five in February to seven in this latest poll.
Pauline Hanson dropped four points in her best position and added six. He registered with 15 in January.
Highlighting the impact of the struggle on the political right between the Union and One Nation, at the level proposed by the two parties Labor holds a 55-45 lead, which it achieved in last year’s election.
But the survey also revealed voters believe that One Nation will be the force in the next election, which is expected to be held in May 2028.
When asked who they expect to win the election, 38 percent believe it will be the Labor party, 22 percent said it will be the Union while 16 percent expect it to be “someone else”. That someone else is One Nation.
The surge in support for the government came despite cost-of-living pressures brought on by the war with Iran, which has pushed global oil prices to around US$120 a barrel.
Keeping the cost of living down was rated by 42 percent as the single most important policy priority, easily overshadowing every other issue, such as housing (8 percent), immigration (6 percent) and health care (7 percent).
Australians are taking their own steps to ease the cost pressure caused by rising petrol prices, with 79 per cent saying they have changed their driving habits.
The most common adjustment has been for people to drive down (58 percent of those surveyed). People with low incomes (67 percent), retirees and people in rural or regional areas (both 64 percent) were the groups most likely to keep their car keys.
One in five said they did not make a journey over the Easter holiday that they otherwise would have, while 19 per cent said they used public transport, walked or cycled to work. On Sunday, tannounced the state government of Victoria it was extending free public transport for another month and then reducing prices for half a year.
In an important sign for the Central Bank that higher petrol prices are having a big impact on consumers, more than a quarter of people (27 per cent) said they have cut back on purchases of other goods and services.
Only 21 percent said they have not changed, where they were most likely people with high incomes (25 percent).
Reed said there has also been an increase in people varying their work habits.
“We’re finding more people are able to work from home than during COVID, suggesting the world of work has changed somewhat in recent years,” he said.
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Shane Wright is senior economics writer for The Age and The Sydney Morning Herald.Connect through X or email address.
