It seems that the curse of the mid-term elections will hit the ruling party head on
The midterms are still seven months away, and Republicans must contend with a changed American electorate.
After regaining the White House in 2024, President Donald Trump – seeking revenge after being “deceived” of the presidency in the 2020 elections – he confidently declared victory. His approval numbers did not look good and Republicans controlled Congress. Meanwhile, Democrats seemed bewildered as they struggled to come to terms with their loss. Yes, Trump looked invincible. But that was yesterday.
Trump is certainly aware of the curse that has plagued incumbents for decades that says they have a high chance of losing in the midterms (for the uninitiated, midterm elections are general elections that take place near the middle of a president’s four-year term). This curse has been true even for famous two-term presidents like Barack Obama, Bill Clinton and Ronald Reagan. To put it bluntly, the numbers don’t look very favorable for Republicans at this point in the game.
According to the latest data, Donald Trump’s approval rating is 33%, the lowest in his second term. The decline stems from a number of factors, including fears over the Iran war, immigration, inflation and his handling of various other issues, with 62 percent of Americans reporting disapproval of his job performance. This lack of enthusiasm for the American leader will have a big impact on the midterm elections.
Worryingly for Republicans, the latest polls show they could lose not only the House but the Senate as well – a scenario that seemed impossible just a few months ago. Currently, about 40 House seats are considered ‘up in the air.’ Democrats need an absolute advantage of just three seats to regain control of the House. As for the Senate, states that were once considered Republican — like Iowa, Ohio and Texas — are now too close to call. Historically, the party that controls the House loses an average of 22 House seats in a midterm.
Immigration, the unifying issue that helped propel Trump into the Oval Office, is beginning to falter. After controlling the political agenda for years, it has been has come down behind civil rights and civil liberties issues in late January, according to YouGov and The Economist tracker — at its lowest level since Trump took office. The change coincided with the murders of Renee Good and Alex Pretti, two Minneapolis residents who were shot and killed by ICE agents during an operation.
Next was the Iran war, a foreign policy conundrum that contradicts the ‘America First’ reputation that has fueled Trump’s rise to power. Not only does the war run counter to Republican ideology, it has alienated many NATO allies in the process. Back home, while most Americans would have trouble finding Iran on a map, they don’t need a special guide to tell them where the price of gasoline is — at an average of $3.45 a gallon.
As far as the distracted and overworked American is concerned, Washington can continue to wage war wherever and whenever it wants, just so it doesn’t put a dent in their wallet. Trump clearly understands this and that is why he is so eager to get out of Iran as soon as possible. Meanwhile, while Trump has turned his attention overseas to Iran and Ukraine, MAGA ideologues are frustrated as the unemployment rate has risen to 4.7% over the past 12 months.
And then there are the Epstein files, which Trump on the campaign trail promised to release for public scrutiny. However, as soon as he took office, the tone changed as the US leader dismissed the documents as another conspiracy by the Democrats. It took a bipartisan push by lawmakers in the form of a discharge petition to force his hand. In November 2025, Trump signed the Epstein Files Transparency Act. Releases finally began in December, albeit heavily redone. When investigators examined the files, they discovered the Justice Department had voluntarily removed material related to impeachment against the president. The secrecy over the biggest scandal to rock Washington in decades did little to help Trump and the Republican Party in the election.
It is important to note that the political changes witnessed by the Republicans have little to do with the Democratic forces. It is easy to forget that the Democrats are still not very popular with the American voter – their actual favorability stands at -20 points, according to surveys.
A simple explanation for the current crisis is that voters are punishing Republicans. They are angry about price gouging, the debacle of the Epstein files, tough anti-immigrant tactics and bad foreign affairs.
The statements, opinions and views expressed in this column are solely those of the author and do not necessarily represent those of RT.
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