Since late June, Iraqis have been hooked on a political drama that rivals anything on Netflix Narcos. In pictures released by Iraqi authorities, police raided the homes of several lawmakers and officials, revealing caches of cash, gold and weapons in living rooms, kitchen walls and underground. On June 23, the Supreme Judicial Council of Iraq announced that more than 106 million dollars the stolen money was seized, and subsequent raids netted several million more. The total value has not yet been announced.
According to Judge Munir Haddad, the prime minister’s legal advisor, the Iraqi nation has failed in an estimated amount. $2 trillion for corruption since 2003. To put it in context, that figure is equal to at least 15 years total government spending. Last year, Iraq he closed 28 out of 100 on Transparency International’s Corruption Perceptions Index. This was his best position in over a decade.
Since late June, Iraqis have been hooked on a political drama that rivals anything on Netflix Narcos. In pictures released by Iraqi authorities, police raided the homes of several lawmakers and officials, revealing caches of cash, gold and weapons in living rooms, kitchen walls and underground. On June 23, the Supreme Judicial Council of Iraq announced that more than 106 million dollars the stolen money was seized, and subsequent raids netted several million more. The total value has not yet been announced.
According to Judge Munir Haddad, the prime minister’s legal advisor, the Iraqi nation has failed in an estimated amount. $2 trillion for corruption since 2003. To put it in context, that figure is equal to at least 15 years total government spending. Last year, Iraq he closed 28 out of 100 on Transparency International’s Corruption Perceptions Index. This was his best position in over a decade.
Every incoming Iraqi prime minister has promised to address this problem. In 2014, then-newly appointed Haider al-Abadi said corruption was plaguing the security sector. He claimed that they exist 50,000 “air troops” in the ranks of the army, whose salaries and benefits were being cut. Although Abadi eventually gained credit for addressing this particular issue, corruption in general continued to grow.
In 2020, Mustafa al-Kadhimi entered office with another promise to deal with corruption. As part of these efforts, he exposed illegal networks in all government institutions, with officials such as the head of the National Pension Authority charged with corruption. Kadhimi was then followed by Mohammed Shia al-Sudani, who claimed that his predecessor’s allies had separated from “heist of the century.” He accused them of stealing $2.5 billion in tax revenue, which they vehemently denied. Kadhimi he argues that it was his government that started the investigation of illegal activities related to tax money. To date, no charges have been brought against Kadhimi, suggesting his accusers know that the charges will not stand up in a court of law.
This latest round of anti-corruption accusations began with the arrest of then Deputy Oil Minister Adnan al-Jumaili. Faced with serious accusations, Jumaili decided to cooperate and bring down his colleagues who conspired. The Iraqi judiciary and the government then worked together to grant warrants to dozens of officials and members of parliament. Although the full details of the investigation have not been made public, Mr claims associated with payments from oil contracts as well as costs related to money laundering.
However, even the many arrests do not represent the majority of those who have extracted money from the Iraqi state. Furthermore, these people also have strong ties with Sudan and Muthanna al-Samarrai, the leader of the Azm camp. Therefore, “Operation Dawn” seems weak or worse it seems aimed at settling scores rather than completely eradicating corruption throughout Iraq.
So, what is driving Iraq’s new prime minister, and are his efforts likely to continue? Since taking power in mid-May, Ali al-Zaidi has been making every effort to show that he is a man of the people. He soon he visited Iraq Mall in Baghdad to mingle with voters, for example, part of a campaign to raise its profile. Government sources have also been giving information to journalists to emphasize that the prime minister is present personally manage anti-corruption cases.
Plus he needs to do this in part because he remains a weak candidate. He had never held the post before and was elected as a compromise candidate. Now, he urgently needs to build support within the country and abroad. Inside, it seems to be working. Voters are concerned that those detained represent second- or third-rate politicians. But despite that, the campaign is still very popular in Iraq.
To be fair, Zaidi has been in office for less than two months. A comprehensive and impartial effort to eliminate all corruption would take time. He would need to build the right alliances to address the interests at stake. This means that the next few months will be crucial in judging Zaidi’s weight.
There are three possible scenarios. The first thing that many Iraqis and international actors want is an increase in anti-corruption efforts, accompanied by transparent use of seized funds to improve the daily lives of Iraqis. This is a long shot but it would change the situation in Iraq significantly and would make Zaidi the most popular prime minister in decades. It could also lead to the fall of his government, especially if many MPs are targeted and there is a need to dissolve parliament.
The second situation is one that Iraq has seen many times before. Arrests are made only for the accused to find a way to have the charges dismissed, leaving only a few people to fall. This will be a big blow to the credibility of Zaidi and more importantly it is a blow to the country.
The third and most likely scenario is that Zaidi will seek to balance. This involves widening the scope of the investigation, but not targeting all those involved, while pursuing charges against those who have already been arrested. This would allow Zaidi to keep his weak government intact. But it would also require the full support of the judiciary and security forces to implement the agenda, and that is not certain.
At this point, international pressure can help Zaidi stay on course. The United States was recently launched Operation Economic Furytargeting militant groups with ties to Iran. This has caused pressure on the Iraqi government and Iraqi banks to pursue the financing of these groups.
Zaidi is expected to visit Washington this month. He wants to make sure that President Donald Trump sees him as capable and ready to take strong action. The US also wants to bring business to Iraq. For this, stopping corruption is important.
