Welcome to Foreign Policy‘s South Asia Brief.
Highlights this week: Pakistan hopes to capitalize on its success Iran’s mediation effortsPrime Minister of Bangladesh Tariq Rahman makes an important trip to China, with the Home Minister of India Amit Shah he has a rare meeting with the US ambassador in New Delhi.
Pakistan Sees Its Global Influence Growing
When the United States and Iran reached a peace deal this month, one of the first public announcements came from Pakistan’s Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif. The agreement capped weeks of mediation by Pakistan, which has long sought to convince the world that it is an influential and positive player on the international stage.
The question is whether Islamabad can capitalize on its newfound popularity. Pakistan is the fifth most populous country in the world, and occupies strategic real estate as a gateway to the Middle East and East Asia. But it has limited potential: It is not a major economy and does not boast important international exports, such as oil or microchips.
Moreover, the support of US President Donald Trump, which helped Pakistan secure its position as a key negotiator, may not last. Trump has a very bad reputation and may conclude that Islamabad’s spending is not very good, especially if conflicts in the Middle East subside and business opportunities in Pakistan (like those related to important minerals) do not come out.
Pakistan is also in danger of being overwhelmed by the most important international actors. For example, lasting peace in the Middle East could benefit its rival India, which is a large part of the emerging geo-economic architecture that is poised to take shape in the region, such as the India-Middle East-Europe corridor and the India-Israel-United Arab Emirates-United States quad.
Still, the Middle East remains Islamabad’s foreign policy comfort zone, and it will be important that it continues to focus heavily on the region. Many of Pakistan’s closest friends are in the Middle East, several million Pakistanis work there, and it has a mutual defense agreement with Saudi Arabia. Its cachet in the region stands to grow.
Moving forward, Pakistan can leverage its success in mediation to help secure its interests. For example, in the future negotiations with his Gulf donors to get more favorable terms of credit, it could indicate his efforts to succeed in ending the war that has hit them hard.
Pakistan must address the internal problems that have tarnished its image, including political repression and terrorism. International prestige can shield Islamabad from international criticism or even encourage it to accelerate measures that anger the Pakistani public, such as a crackdown on dissidents. But domestic issues will limit Islamabad’s foreign policy.
In the long term, sustainable global influence will also require a strong economy. Pakistan has made strides on this front, especially in its small size technology sector. Still, it has work to do to compete: While global markets prioritize semiconductors and clean energy infrastructure, Pakistan still emphasizes its textiles and agricultural products.
Strengthening the economy would not only strengthen Pakistan’s international influence, it would also reduce its dependence on foreign funding and give it more room to pursue an independent foreign policy.
Even before its recent success, Islamabad provided agency on the international stage, share in a variety of international organizations, expand long-term cooperation, and leading military exercises of many countries. Pakistan’s mediation of the Iran deal gives it an opportunity to expand its international reach. But it will involve hard work, abroad and at home.
What we’re after
Tariq Rahman in China. Bangladesh Prime Minister Tarique Rahman, who took office in February, is in China this week after a stop in Malaysia. His agenda for three days the tour includes high-level activities in Beijing and the World Economic Forum event in Dalian. That Rahman traveled to China during his first trip abroad as prime minister—and not to India—is significant.
Beijing is a close ally of Dhaka, and they have expanded economic and security cooperation in recent years. At the same time, relations between Bangladesh and India have deteriorated since the ouster of Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina in 2024. Some leaders of the Bangladesh Nationalist Party he suggested a desire explore proximity to India; An early visit from Rahman would send a strong signal.
In the end, Rahman’s decision to go to China instead makes sense. There is strong anti-India sentiment among the Bangladeshi public, and a strong and early approach to India would pose political risks for the new government.
Amit Shah meets the US ambassador. A day after Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi met Trump in France last week, Indian Home Minister Amit Shah the host Sergio Gor, US ambassador, in New Delhi. At first glance, this may seem pointless; Since taking office in January, Gor has had a series of high-profile engagements to get US-India relations back on track.
But the meeting was unusual. Shah, who has a reputation as a hard-nosed enforcer, usually does not practice diplomacy. (The last time he traveled abroad 20 years ago.) When he meets diplomats from foreign countries, it is always at the level of a minister. Of the Shah just another recent conversation and the ambassadors of the United States were meeting with Eric Garcetti in 2023 and Kenneth Juster in 2019.
The Gor meeting focused on counter-terrorism and counter-narcotics cooperation. It may be related to Shah’s political ambitions. He has been tipped as Modi’s successor, and he may want to show that he is comfortable with foreign leaders – in contrast to his reputation as a paranoid politician.
Measles outbreak in Bangladesh. One of the biggest immediate challenges for the Rahman government is public health. The country is facing a major outbreak of measles, and new cases are still increasing. Data provided On Tuesday, the Directorate General of Health Services reported 1,009 new suspected cases in 24 hours, increasing the number to 94,764.
About 80,000 people have been hospitalized with suspected measles since April 10, and 593 people have died. Experts have to be blamed the outbreak of delayed vaccination after the removal of Hasina. They too warn that the situation in Bangladesh could bring danger to other countries, including the United States.
Measles is just one of the major public health challenges facing Bangladesh: Dengue fever, spread by mosquitoes, also has call difficult country in recent years.
Under the Radar
Last Friday, Afghanistan he said carried out airstrikes in Pakistan targeting the Islamic State-Khorasan (IS-K), one of the Taliban’s militant rivals. The Taliban regime he said The strike hit facilities used in collaboration with “certain hostile intelligence circles” to plan attacks against Afghanistan.
The Taliban’s statement may have referred to Pakistani intelligence, although Pakistan also considers IS-K a threat and has targeted the group in the past. Pakistan’s ministry of information was quickly published on X and rejected the Taliban’s claims and said that all IS-K bases are in Afghanistan. Both sides have otherwise remained silent on the matter.
A few things stand out about this development.
First, Afghanistan does not have an effective air force; the weapons that the Taliban seized in 2021 were largely for ground operations. Any air operations in Pakistan would be moderate—drawn by a small number of planes, helicopters, and drones that do not appear to be sufficient for a successful cross-border operation.
Moreover, in the middle of frequent Afghanistan-Pakistan violence In recent months, many of the Taliban’s kinetic actions have targeted Pakistani border troops in retaliation for airstrikes in Afghanistan. An early counter-terrorist attack by the Taliban in Pakistan, if carried out, would mark a new phase of tension between the two countries.
That neither side has said anything else publicly on the matter is another indication that the Taliban’s claims may be mistaken or exaggerated.
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Voices of the Regions
A Daily Star editorial slams Government of Bangladesh by ordering the expansion of hospital beds without addressing the shortage of medical staff. “The government’s priority should be to meet the existing demand for doctors, nurses, and laborers and accelerate planned recruitment,” it says.
In Voices of South Asiaresearchers Muhammad Shoaib and Hammad Waleed say that the Pakistani authorities are working to prevent the use of drones by the Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan. “Pakistan should adopt a long-term plan to include anti-drone doctrine, integrated air defense systems, and a willingness to find suppliers,” they insist. write.
In Kathmandu Postdoctor Sher Bahadur Pun he writes about Nepal’s efforts to eliminate rabies deaths by 2030. “(A)chieving this goal will be challenging without ensuring uninterrupted vaccine distribution and equal access to vaccines, especially for residents living in remote areas,” he writes.
