The world could the face of A stronger El Niño since record keeping began, increasing the likelihood of extreme weather events with significant long-term economic impacts worldwide.
A new analysis by Berkeley Earth climate scientist Zeke Hausfather paints a disturbing picture the weather ongoing in the Pacific Ocean. Modelers have consistently predicted that this year’s El Niño—which is characterized by warmer-than-normal water in the eastern tropical Pacific—could be among the strongest on record. of Hausfather analysis using an El Niño forecast based on 14 weather models through July shows that “this year’s El Niño is not only likely to be the strongest event since reliable records began—it could end up being surprisingly strong.”
Climate researchers gauge the strength of El Niño by looking at temperatures in the Pacific region known as Niño 3.4, which covers the eastern and central part of the ocean basin. The new analysis is based on 667 simulations and compares it to historical records of the strongest El Niño events since 1877. It also separates the strength of El Niño from background warming powered by fossil fuels, making it easier to compare the best El Niños.
Model averages show that temperatures in the Niño 3.4 region could reach a maximum of 3.6 degrees Celsius (6.5 degrees Fahrenheit) above normal levels. This number would exceed the previous record—set during the 2015-2016 El Niño period—by about 0.8 degrees Celsius. It’s rare for a record to fall with such a wide spread.
“For context, the gap between the most powerful and five The strongest El Niño of the last 150 years is only about 0.5C. “The models are predicting something outside the envelope of anything we’ve ever seen,” Hausfather writes.
Of course, what happens in the tropical Pacific does not stay in the tropical Pacific. El Niño reorganizes the atmosphere, changing weather patterns around the world. The stronger the El Niño, the greater the effects (usually).
Record-breaking ocean temperatures in the Pacific combined with carbon-emission-driven warming could send global temperatures to new record highs. But it takes time for the extra heat produced by El Niño to work its way through the larger climate system, meaning that next year will see the full impact of this year’s Pacific heat wave on global average temperatures. According to his estimates, the global temperature in 2027 could reach 1.7 degrees Celsius above the pre-industrial average, more than A maximum of 1.5 degrees Celsius this has been named the safe level of global warming.
But the world won’t have to wait until 2027 to feel the warmth of El Niño. A separate analysis by Carbon Brief shows that bad habits are increasing for 2026 to set an annual warm record, with the probability of increasing from 19 percent in April to 35 percent by July. And forecasters expect severe weather associated with El Niño to affect many parts of the world in the coming months. In fact, some of the effects are already here: Fisheries in the eastern Pacific are to see the bottom fishwhile the Peruvian government imposed a ban on catching anchovies this spring.
Hausfather’s investigation also revealed that the phenomenon is progressing faster than usual. According to the comparison, this year’s El Niño is growing faster than the 1997-1998 event, another major El Niño. It also differs significantly from the 2015 event, which began when the ocean was already showing signs of initial warming—in other words, it began to run. That’s surprising because this year started with La Niña, El Niño’s cooler-than-usual cousin, so it had a bit of work to do before it even started.
