Despite The United States and Iran are attacking each other with fire and new missile attacks aimed at the United Arab Emirates this week, the Trump administration maintains that the ceasefire that began in early April is still in place. Iran’s attacks on commercial shipping and U.S. Navy vessels remain “all below the threshold for resuming major military operations at this stage,” according to Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff General Dan Caine.
Meanwhile, Iran’s embargo on shipping through the Strait of Hormuz is still in place, with experts predicting only a few weeks left before a major catastrophe. global energy shortage. And US sanctions on Iranian ports are already having a negative impact the economy of a country affected by war.
Is there a way out? United States began a naval operation“Project Freedom,” over the weekend to escort stranded ships out of the strait, but President Donald Trump stopped it Tuesday, citing progress in diplomatic talks. On Wednesday, Barak Ravid of Axios reported on the US and Iran close to the plan to end the conflict. Oil prices began to fall, but were halted when Trump dumped them cold water on the report, saying it is a “big assumption” that “Iran agrees to deliver what has been agreed.”
In short, no one knows how this stalemate will end, but a few plausible scenarios are taking shape.
Ravid’s report, which appears to be based heavily on sources within the Trump administration, suggests the two sides are close to agreeing on a “one-page document,” which would include lifting bilateral restrictions on shipping through Hormuz, Iran agreeing to halt its nuclear enrichment program, and the U.S. releasing billions of dollars in Iranian cash reserves. How long the enrichment freeze could last is still being debated, but it will probably be somewhere between the five years proposed by Iran and the 20 years proposed by the United States.
This would be the ironic result: “green, silver green” flown to Iran in 2015 has been one of Trump’s favorite talking points about the deal with Barack Obama that he pulled out of in 2018. But it may be the best outcome for the administration at this point, especially if Iran agrees to remove its existing stockpile of highly enriched uranium.
Wednesday’s reports may be spin. This not the first time in recent weeks where the two sides have been reported to be close to an agreement. The major division between the two sides has been that the United States wants to have an agreement on Iran’s nuclear program as part of the agreement, while Iran only wants an agreement to reopen the channel in exchange for the United States to remove its sanctions, and the nuclear issue to be postponed later.
Ordinary Iranians are struggling to buy basic needsand Iran may be running out of oil reserves that it cannot export (although this is probably little problem for Tehran than the White House seems to think). But Iran’s new leaders may still believe they can absorb more pain than Trump and can hold the deal to their terms — which block the nuclear deal or at least postpone it until later.
According to a recent Reuters report, US intelligence officials believe Operation Epic Fury’s bombing campaign it didn’t change much Iran’s schedule to develop nuclear weapons. Its time Missile resources have been largely destroyedthese can be rebuilt.
To the extent that this war was primarily about Iran’s nuclear program, this outcome should be judged an unequivocal defeat for the United States, despite the damage Iran has suffered.
3) The United States is re-opening the channel by force
Under the now-defunct Freedom Project, which The Pentagon holds it’s a completely different operation than the Epic Fury, the US Navy ships succeeded in escorting two ships out of the Strait of Hormuz on Monday; more than 1,000 ships are still stuck in the Persian Gulf. Even if restored and expanded, Project Freedom is only intended to assist stranded ships out of the Gulf, will not help newcomers to enter. Restoring a full shipment via waterways would require international shipping companies (and their insurers) to believe that the voyage warrants liability.
During the 1980s “Cannon Wars,” the U.S. Navy escorted ships through the Persian Gulf, protecting them from Iranian attacks — but that was before the age of drones, which allow Iran to threaten many ships at a much lower cost.
Trump has been reluctant to consider more drastic measures such as sending US ground troops to capture the strategically located Kharg Island, due to the high risk of US casualties, but public pressure on the White House to take action is growing. The administration has also been trying to persuade allies to join a union to reopen the narrow channel. They have been reluctant so far, but pressure could increase in the coming weeks as the damage to the economy mounts.
4) Go back to full battle
It has been released Trump’s emphasis to the public and to Congress that the war was over, it seemed unlikely that he would start it again. But he he also says he will “go back to blasting the hell out of them” if there is no plan. This could involve targeting Iran’s electricity grid and bridges, which Trump much threatened, but not carried out in April. Certainly US ally Israel would be more than happy to restart the air campaign.
Tuesday, Trump he asked the leaders of Iran waving the “white flag of surrender” because “we don’t want to go in and kill people.” But as has been the case since the beginning of this war, it is clear that the government is more than ready to kill thousands of his people to remain in power is ready to make an agreement so that the United States and Israel do not kill them.
The current situation certainly seems unsustainable, but instead of ending largely in an agreement or a return to war, it is possible that this conflict could end for a while. The United States can reduce its sanctions, as was the case recently in Cuba. Iran could establish a system, either alone or with other countries in the region, to levy taxes on ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz. This it will be the new economic reality not only for the Middle East, but for the world.
Other countries located at strategic maritime points are likely to check the possibility of take such measures to raise themthreatening the freedom of travel that has enabled our age of globalization.
And even if Iran agrees to lift its sanctions, it will now have the full power to close the strait again when it feels under threat, arguably a more important form of deterrence than its nuclear program. Instead of asking how this problem will end, it may be time to start asking how to adapt to the new world you have created.
