At the end of February, the relationship between Mexico and the United States seemed to hit a high point. After several months of pressure from US President Donald Trump asking Mexico to do more to fight its groups, the Mexican forces submitted, to kill head of the country’s most powerful organized crime group, the Jalisco New Generation Cartel.
Despite the chaos caused by the cartel that followedMexico received praise from the United States: “This is a great development for Mexico, the United States, Latin America, and the world,” Deputy Secretary of State Christopher Landau, former US ambassador to Mexico, wrote on X. “Good people are stronger than bad people.”
The current US Ambassador to Mexico City, Ronald Johnson, he noted that “bilateral cooperation has reached unprecedented levels.” The report that the operation relied on American intelligence appeared to represent what Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum said. he has called “cooperation without obedience.”
Since then, however, relations between the two countries have rapidly disintegrated. Washington’s increasing manipulation of security and corruption south of the border has pushed relations between the United States and Mexico to a critical stage, just ahead of talks on the future of the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA). The process officially began on May 28, with the United States opting for bilateral talks with Mexico first.
The future of trade between the two countries has never looked bleaker, and depending on the outcome of the negotiations, US-Mexico relations could weaken for years to come.
The rift began expand last month, when information emerged that two CIA agents were killed in a car accident during an operation to take down a drug laboratory in the Mexican state of Chihuahua. The Sheinbaum administration claimed it had no knowledge of the agents’ presence in Mexico—a possible violation of Mexico’s independence and Constitution.
The CIA operation also raised alarm over Trump’s threats to send ground troops into Mexico. “This is not something that should be taken lightly by any Mexican,” Sheinbaum said in a news conference.
Sheinbaum has spent much of the past year keeping his head down and trying to please Trump, out stop oil shipments to Cuba sending nearly 100 members of the cartel to face justice in the United States. But he has drawn a clear red line when it comes to the direct involvement of US troops on Mexican soil.
“There is a real struggle between the presidents of Mexico and the United States, a challenge that has been going on for several months,” said Rafael Fernández de Castro, director of the Center for American-Mexican Studies at the University of California, San Diego. “This is undoubtedly the most difficult year in decades in terms of bilateral relations.”
A few days after the CIA crash, Johnson issued a inflammatory speech in the demolition of a factory in the state of Sinaloa, suggesting that the second target of the Trump administration in Mexico will be government corruption. Trump has long railed against the “unbearable collusion” between Mexican officials and business corporations, saying that corporations have a “strong hold” on politicians.
Citing Mexico’s corruption as a threat to international investment and the USMCA, during his speech in Sinaloa, Johnson called on the country to “legalize bribery and corruption and enforce ethical standards for public officials.” He added, “Soon we may see a significant step in this regard. So, stay tuned.”
On April 29, Washington revised its threat. US Department of Justice charged the governor of Sinaloa, Rubén Rocha Moya, and nine other current and former officials for allegedly working with the Sinaloa organization to distribute large amounts of fentanyl, heroin, cocaine, and methamphetamine in the United States.
The US prosecution and extradition request to Mexico landed like a bombshell. Rocha Moya is a member of Mexico’s Morena ruling party, was a close ally of former President Andrés Manuel López Obrador, and was publicly supported by Sheinbaum.
“There is no doubt that there is a pre- and post-repatriation request,” Fernández de Castro said. “It’s unprecedented. This weakened the relationship between the two countries.”
Sheinbaum was arrested, demanding more evidence before considering extradition. There was no indication that the president had any intention of investigating Rocha Moya before the US charges. “We are not going to hide anyone who has committed a crime,” Sheinbaum said. “However, in the absence of clear evidence, it is clear that the purpose of these prosecutions by the Justice Department is political.”
The charges against Rocha Moya put Sheinbaum in an impossible bind. He must make efforts to appease the US if Mexico wants a chance to exit the trade talks with a good deal. At the same time, he needs to reduce the anti-American fervor within Morena’s party, which will not take Rocha Moya’s return lightly. Even with the USMCA on the table, Morena hard-liners will pressure the governor of Sinaloa to stay in Mexico.
Given Mexico’s declining economy and its dependence on the US market, it is likely that Sheinbaum will eventually hand over to Rocha Moya to unseat Trump.
The request for extradition appeared to be just the beginning. CNN information this month that the CIA had increased its presence in Mexico and was involved in the assassination of a cartel member in March. (Sheinbaum to be called the report is “a myth of universal proportions.” A CIA spokesman also denied.) Several days later, the New York Times information that the US Department of Justice was pushing to increase the prosecution of “corrupt Mexican officials” under terrorism laws.
On May 15, information emerged that two indicted officials from the Rocha Moya administration surrendered to US authorities, lending greater credibility to Washington’s accusations and increasing pressure on Sheinbaum to turn over more officials.
“It’s rising to the top,” said Arturo Sarukhan, Mexico’s former ambassador to the United States. “We could be left in the worst possible world: a relationship that is collapsing at the level of rationality and the perception in Washington that the Mexican government protects and hides the Teflon relationship between politics, politicians, and international criminal organizations.”
With USMCA inspection now underway, the collapse of bilateral relations could not have come at a worse time. For Mexico, the stakes are high.
“It is urgent and of great importance for Mexico to preserve the agreement,” Fernández de Castro said. “Thanks to the USMCA, Mexico is now the largest trading partner of the United States. And Mexico is also one of the countries with the lowest tariffs in the Trump 2.0 era.”
Trade with the United States alone represents more than 80 percent of Mexico’s exports. In this conversation, Mexico will want to keep the USMCA as strong as possible while protecting energy mandates and limiting the use of tariffs on non-commercial issues such as immigration or security.
Under USMCA rules, the three countries must decide by July 1 whether to extend the agreement for 16 more years. If not, the agreement will remain in force but subject to annual review until 2036, when it may expire. Countries could also withdraw from the agreement entirely, which would have negative consequences for North America.
Trump has also angered Canada with threats including seizing, blocking a new bridge between Michigan and Ontario, and set a 100 percent tax Canada should make a trade agreement with China. Ottawa may now be looking for trade deals somewhere else. During the review of the USMCA, Canada will focus on resolving disputes on issues such as forestry and search The United States will remove tariffs on steel and aluminum. The US Trade Representative’s office has not yet announced a schedule for formal talks with Canada.
Given the strained relationship between the United States and its close neighbors, analysts say it is unlikely that all three countries will agree to extend the agreement. Although Trump has to be teased with the USMCA leaving entirely, an annual review process is the most likely outcome.
That’s especially bad news for Mexico. “That means that at least for the next three years, the US administration will have a very important step against the Mexican government,” Sarukhan said, because the USMCA negotiations and the tariff negotiations “are inextricably linked, in Washington’s opinion, on the level of Mexican cooperation in law enforcement and counter-narcotics issues.”
Mexico has at least one important card to play. With US midterm elections looming, trade talks will ensure stable prices for many products that hit voters’ pockets, from avocados to auto parts. It is fundamental to affordability, “the most important word” in the midterms, Fernández de Castro said. “That’s something that all companies in the United States that have interests in Mexico understand — even if Trump doesn’t.”
According to Fernandez de Castro, these companies can influence Trump to ensure a good deal. “Those American companies with interests in Mexico saved NAFTA in 2018, and I’m sure they will save the USMCA,” he added.
Still, defeating drug companies remains Trump’s guiding principle in relations with Mexico. Regardless of what happens in the trade agreement, there is no doubt that the United States will continue to put pressure on Sheinbaum about the cooperation between members of his party and drug cartels.
“There is a series of more charges coming our way,” Sarukhan said. “The time for scaremongering is over, and the rubber is now hitting the road.”
