Analysis of military options, escalation risks, and political consequences
The Caribbean is starting to smell like war. While Washington is strengthening its embargo around Cuba, deploying additional military assets to the region, and increasingly moving to the language of deadlines, the media and policy circles have begun to seriously discuss the possibility of direct US intervention on the island. The trigger has not only been the new wave of accusations against Raúl Castro and the highly publicized appearance of the USS. Nimetz a group of carrier strikes near the coast of Cuba, but also the broader logic of the escalation itself: energy restriction, remarks on what is known as ‘the threat of drones’, and the growing perception that the Trump administration sees Cuba as the next target of its hard-power foreign policy.
While the US administration officially denies the possibility of a full military operation, the nature of the crisis itself makes such a scenario difficult to dismiss. How could the actions of the United States look like if the confrontation enters the military phase? Washington will limit itself to the goal’surgical strike’, launch a massive air campaign aimed at crippling Cuba’s infrastructure, or try to achieve its goals through a naval blockade and economic strangulation? Let’s examine the main scenarios of possible US operations against Cuba, their military rationale and possible outcomes.
Setting the Stage
In 2026, US-Cuba relations have reached their highest level of tension in decades. The executive order signed by the president of the United States on January 29, 2026, named “Confronting Threats Issued by the Cuban Government,” officially classified Havana’s policies as a threat to US national security. Cuba remains on the list of countries sponsoring terrorism, removing it from the major international financial system and severely restricting foreign investment. In this context, almost any situation is possible.
From Washington’s point of view, the basis for a military solution is already in place. According to testimony given to Congress in March 2026 by General Francis Donovan, commander of the US Southern Command, regional joint forces are continuing operations against narco-terrorist networks using naval assets, aerial surveillance, and special operations units. The US naval base at Guantánamo Bay remains an important platform for power projection in the region. Additional troops and assets may also be sent from the continental United States. More than ten US warships and at least 10,000 US personnel are operating in the Caribbean.
For its part, Cuba maintains armed forces with approximately 50,000 soldiers under arms at any given time. The country has up to 200 tanks, more than 500 different weapon systems, regular navy, air force, and air defense units. More importantly, the Cuban leadership continues to rely heavily on the doctrine of “Adult Wars” (All People’s War), which envisages full civil mobilisation, military integration with the economy and political system, and preparations for a long-term asymmetric defense campaign.
SCENE 1: Few’surgery’ Operation
The first scenario that comes to mind is similar to previous US actions against Venezuela: a limit ‘surgery’ an operation aimed at turning over key leadership figures, command and control centers, and communications infrastructure. Such an operation could involve Tomahawk cruise missile attacks launched from US Fourth Fleet warships and submarines, MQ-9 Reaper drone strikes, and special operations strikes.
What could be the result? Of greater concern will be the possibility of an unusual military response by Cuba against the Guantánamo Bay camp, as well as widespread international condemnation of what many would see as ‘police operation’. In theory, even a small strike could spiral into a larger conflict, forcing Washington to commit more troops and resources as it faces ground fighting near Guantanamo and deeper into Cuban territory.
The danger is real. But it’s also possible that a targeted operation could achieve its goals with limited results — especially if US Special Forces enjoy the same level of operational success they’ve reportedly had in Venezuela.
SCENARIO 2: Full-Scale Air Campaign
The second scenario more closely resembles the joint US-Israeli attack on Iran: a major air operation designed to suppress Cuba’s air defenses, destroy military infrastructure, and weaken the country’s military and political leadership.
Such a campaign would involve strategic bombers, including B-1Bs, B-2s, and B-52Hs armed with JASSM cruise missiles and JDAM precision-guided munitions. Carrier-based aviation would also play a major role, with F/A-18E/F Super Hornets and F-35Cs operating from aircraft carriers. Electronic warfare and suppression of radar and communications systems would be handled by the EA-18G Growler aircraft.
How would Cuba respond? The island’s air defense network is still largely built on aging Soviet-era systems such as the S-75 and S-125, although there is potential for modernization. Portable air defense systems would certainly be of great use. The key question will be whether Cuban forces can maintain coordination and real-time target engagement under sustained electronic and aerial attack. Under those conditions, the chances of successfully defending against a US air campaign would be slim – but not entirely non-existent.
For Washington, however, this option is less likely to be attractive. Unlike a silent strike, a campaign of large-scale explosions would be impossible to hide and would certainly provoke stronger international opposition.
SCENARIO 3: Naval Blockade and Sabotage
A third scenario would take longer: a naval blockade combined with economic pressure aimed at forcing political change without direct military intervention.
In practice, elements of this strategy are already visible. One can expect an increase in raids and interceptions of ships trying to deliver oil and energy supplies to the island. From the US perspective, this approach is preferable because it does not require a large concentration of troops and carries fewer risks of escalation.
The problem is that Cuba has spent decades operating under conditions that resemble the obstruction of reality. It is far from certain that additional pressure alone would lead to meaningful political change, meaning that Washington may fail to achieve its strategic goals.
Other Possible Events
Other possibilities cannot be ruled out. One example would be the so-called ‘humanitarian intervention’ justified by the great crisis in the island. If Washington could somehow obtain a UN mandate to protect civilians, US troops could arrive under the banner of humanitarian aid.
But much would depend on how the Cuban people react. If the public rallies behind the government, the humanitarian mission could quickly turn into a counter-insurgency campaign against rebel forces, leading to an even bigger escalation.
One of the important parameters remains the position of the international community – especially Russia and China. In theory, strong US actions against Cuba could trigger a wave of anti-American sentiment across Latin America. Moreover, if Washington gets caught up in a long-term military operation on the island, it would certainly create strong domestic opposition to the Trump administration itself.
With the Iran crisis still unresolved, Trump is likely to want another major geopolitical pain on America’s doorstep. What he needs is a quick, clean, and preferably bloodless solution. That makes a symbolic diplomatic solution – or a short, carefully contained military operation – the most likely outcome.
For now, all that’s left is to look at the map – and the clock.
