Two months after the US-Iran war, the fighting has intensified into a never-ending conflict. Both countries claim to have the upper hand, but there is only one clear winner so far – and it’s not one of them.
“The Chinese are watching this war very closely,” said James Palmer, deputy editor of Foreign Policy and the author of his short Chinese magazine, he explains Today, It’s Explained co-host Noel King.
Palmer spoke with Noel about the lessons China is learning from America’s military performance in Iran, why Trump’s treatment of America’s allies could prove costly in any future conflict in the Pacific, and why — despite it all — China is still struggling to stop the fighting.
The following is part of their conversation, edited for length and clarity. There’s a lot more in the full podcast, so take a listen Today, It’s Explained wherever you find podcasts, incl Apple Podcasts, Pandoraand Spotify.
What does China have to do with the US war in Iran?
The Chinese are watching this war very closely. China has always been interested in how America fights, going back to the first Gulf War, which caused Beijing to rethink its military, to rethink how America was at the front.
One of the things they have discovered this time is how quickly America is burning through its weapons. They also look at where America is going in terms of allies and who will stand (with) America when America gets into a really stupid war? China wants to know how this will affect any potential conflict with America in the Asia Pacific in the future.
What is the relationship between Iran and China? They communicate. Are they friendly?
Yes, they are very friendly. If you go to China, you will meet a surprising amount of Iranians because there are a ton of exchange programs – including, for example, pilot training. There is an Iranian medical school at Beijing University of Chinese Medicine for a reason.
It’s very strange because China is a communist country, and the Iranian regime has been killing communists regularly in the past. And equally, at least in theory, Iran is about protecting Muslims. And China is the biggest persecutor of Muslims in the world: millions of Uyghurs were arrested, imprisoned, put in camps, forced to work.
But it is a very practical relationship. They see themselves as having common interests, both commercial and geographical. They see themselves as all against the United States, and in particular, I think China sees Iran as a co-victim of the current world order.
China is watching this war play out very carefully because it is trying to learn a number of things, including what the US military can and probably cannot do. What does it learn about our military strengths and weaknesses?
The main thing they are looking at is the question of production chains and the ability to replenish weapons, which seem to be weaker than people thought. People have been warning about this for years, but one of America’s recent tragedies has been to take these warnings and write a million think pieces about them and do nothing to fix them.
That is different from China. China had a bunch of strategic weaknesses in the 2010s, which it went and fixed – it owned its supply chains, it looked for new suppliers, these kinds of things. And while we haven’t seen it stress tested yet, it appears to be more capable of producing more weapons than the US system. So while America has better weapons, China may be able to get those weapons out there more.
And you think of something like the Germans versus the Americans in World War II. German tanks, German aircraft were superior in many ways, but the Americans were putting 20 tanks on the battlefield for every German. Industry is a force on its own. But even the quality of American weapons, I think, is in question due to the Iran war because we see that the Iranians with their positions to dig in, with their preparations, even with their air defense being completely overwhelmed by the American forces, have found a surprising life: I think more, they have survived the attacks of the United States and Israel than was expected at first.
That’s because Iran is a big place. It has many places you can dig things. But it could also be that America has been overestimating its own power even against a country that is not a peer.
I hear you saying that China is considering what the United States can do militarily because it thinks, what would we do What will China do if the United States attacks it the way it attacked Iran?
I think it is two-sided because on the one hand, China can think of itself as a victim of air power, a victim of this great power. And so it wonders, can the Americans kill our leadership? And the answer to that is probably no, because China’s air defense is much better than Iran’s.
But it also looks at it and says, what if we want to take over Taiwan? What if we want to use our power and project power in the (Taiwan) Strait? Like the Iranians, the Taiwanese have had plenty of time to prepare. They dug in, they know who their opponent is, and they expect it.
We have also seen that there is this ability to threaten (neighbors), even if you are beaten by a stronger opponent. With all the power of America, with all the power of America, it cannot force the reopening of the Strait (of Hormuz). It cannot keep that water safe. And so the Chinese thought, well, what are the Taiwanese going to be able to do in the (Taiwan) Strait? If we send a million people, how many of those ships will be safe? And maybe it’s less than they thought.
So China thinks of itself as America and it thinks of itself as Iran. In that case, it is to think about Taiwan and what China can do for Taiwan. Let me ask you where the US is getting involved in that, because I have been reading that the US has moved an aircraft carrier and expensive missile defense systems out of Asia and into the Middle East to deal with Iran. Are we now at a huge disadvantage if China goes after Taiwan?
Not true, because in any situation in Taiwan, we get a lot of warnings.
It needs to collect materials, men, ships in a way that will be very obvious. And perhaps no part of the planet is more closely watched than the Taiwan Strait. Aircraft carriers, mobile assets – you’ll probably have enough warning to push them back. And we have tons of them in the Asia Pacific anyway, it’s decorated with American bass.
What moving out of the Asia Pacific is costing America is political credibility. And a great example of this is THAAD, which is a very expensive, very high-tech missile defense system that we put in South Korea in the 2010s. China strongly opposed the deployment, and it punished South Korea very severely for allowing the deployment of THAAD in South Korea.
Most notably, there was a complete boycott of the South Korean supermarket chain Lotte, which was trying to enter China and was basically kicked out of China, as were a bunch of other South Korean businesses. South Korean pop stars were temporarily banned from entering the country. They really paid the price.
Now they see Americans treating them like shit the way Trump has treated all of America’s allies like shit. The US military says it has not moved every part of the (system) and that it has moved some components, but the damage has been done nonetheless. South Korean media have widely reported whether THAAD itself is being moved and the cost of the reputation is already there.
Okay, you said it, not me: President Trump treats America’s allies like shit. And that raises interesting questions here about diplomacy. President Trump has not been able to find common American partners in the war, despite several requests and complaints. What does it mean for China that America’s allies are like, Uh-uh, not this time?
All US power projections in the Asia Pacific depend heavily on allies. Any conflict in the Taiwan Strait, using the supply chain from Australia or Japan. You’re not just dependent on a large country or a relatively large country, you’re also dependent on these small island states along the way, which have traditionally looked to America as a security guard.
All of this is based on goodwill and that goodwill is falling apart. As Trump has made the United States increasingly a nation of other people, it will affect our readiness.
Okay, so I think someone might be hearing us talking and thinking this war in Iran has been good for China. Is that so?
Not true. It’s more of a lose-lose situation. They are getting the best out of it, but the closure of the Straits (of Hormuz) is still a big problem for them. And they have been working hard to try to get a ceasefire.
China feels the pain like anyone else. While they are trying to get what they can out of the war, they would still like to see peace.
