One should never underestimate President Donald Trump’s ability to use false pretenses to extract a “win” from a situation where the outcome is controversial. In the future, after Sunday announcement of a cease-fire agreement between the United States and IranThe Trump administration will undoubtedly face questions about why it was worth killing thousands of people and spend more than 30 billion dollarswithout counting the additional costs Americans and people around the world have paid at the gas pump and supermarkets, on a war that only succeeded in restoring the pre-war situation: reopening the path that was not closed before the war, and making Iran promise not to develop nuclear weapons – a promise that it has kept for decades with the country’s most difficult regime.
Trump can claim The US-Israeli attack campaign has backfired Iran’s nuclear and missile programs – though how far back they are remains unknown without inspectors on the ground – and that unlike Barack Obama, he won’t be sending planes full of cash from the US to Iran. (The The money will be coming from Dubai instead.)
The deal is likely to be criticized by Iran hawks who supported the war – some are ready to show concern – but Trump may not face that much pressure given how many of his opponents and supporters want the war to end.
The biggest problem for the administration is that the agreement leaves so many issues unresolved that it is far from clear that the war is really over. And even if it is, we may just be witnessing the configuration of future conflicts that put the United States on an endless warpath in the Middle East.
Is the Strait of Hormuz reopening?
“Earthships, start your engines. Let the fuel flow!” Trump he posted on his Community Truth forumannouncing the plan on Sunday. But Iran’s state media, spinning this deal as tough if not tougher than the White House, also claims that the country plans to implement it. transit fees through the Strait of Hormuzcontrary to Trump’s claim that the waterway would be “absolutely free.”
It is also worth noting that when Trump announced the lifting of US sanctions against Iran, it appears that Iran will not start implementing the agreement until Friday.
That means the strait will not be open for five days – life in this crisis. Given that the whole process was almost gave way on Sunday after Israeli attacks in Lebanonthere is no reason to assume this is completely finished. Shipping companies and seafarers’ associations, no wonder, they say need further clarification beforehand they conclude that the Straits are safe for further travel.
Even if Iran agrees to reopen the “free” traffic lane on Friday, the country’s full ability to close it again at any time will be at stake in its negotiations with the US for weeks to come – and beyond. The war has made it clear that Iran’s control over the strait is a powerful tool for leverage that is unlikely to give up. The Hormuz genie cannot be put back in the bottle, and the days when free international travel through this important part of international trade can be assumed are probably over.
Back to the nuclear drawing board
The agreement underscores the United States’ main motivation in the war: eliminating Iran’s nuclear program. While the full text of the agreement has not been released, reports have suggested that it will begin a 60-day ceasefire to negotiate a comprehensive peace agreement, including an agreement on Iran’s nuclear program. Considering how long this issue has plagued US-Iranian relations, an agreement to resolve it in two months is a tall order.
Issues on the table include what to do with Iran’s estimated stockpile of 440 kilograms of highly enriched uranium. Trump insists that what he refers to as “nuclear dust” will be dug up and removed from the country, but Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei has issued an order against this. The two sides are also still discussing how long Iran will be banned from enriching uranium to low levels for civilian use, what kind of inspection regime will be in place to ensure Iran’s compliance with any agreement, and the sequence of when sanctions will be lifted to restore Iran’s compliance.
Differences between the two sides can be resolved – but given that the US and Israel have now attacked Iran during ongoing talks twice in the past year, trust is low, and Iranian negotiators may feel more confident driving a tough bargain.
Trump he directed another profanity-laced taunt Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu on Sunday, accusing him of bad judgment, after Israel carried out airstrikes in Beirut in retaliation for a Hezbollah drone attack in Northern Israel.
Israel’s ongoing conflict with Iran’s ally Hezbollah in Lebanon may be the tipping point for this entire process. Pakistan’s Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif, in his initial announcement of the plan, made it clear that included military operations in Lebanonbut Israel’s defense minister insisted on Monday that Israeli troops would not leave from the area of Lebanon it resides.
The consequences of this war, which leaves the Iranian regime in place, were very severe for Israel, especially since the United States seems to have abandoned its demands for control of Iran’s ballistic missile program – a greater threat to the Israelis than the Americans. But it is hard to see the Israeli government accepting a deal that (in its view) removes its ability to retaliate against Hezbollah attacks, especially with Netanyahu heading into a tough re-election fight.
For Trump, the Lebanon issue is an unnecessary distraction from his quest to reach an agreement with Iran. But neither Israel nor Iran is likely to allow him to treat it as a side issue.
The United States remains in the Middle East
In interview with the New York Times On Sunday, Trump once again threatened to resume military strikes against Tehran if Iran does not reach a final nuclear deal, but he also went further, suggesting that in the future the United States could be “the protector of the Middle East” in exchange for 20 percent of the region’s oil revenues.
The idea of the United States to act as a paid police force and security guarantor of the region is to leave completely from a foreign policy approach he continued his own criticism of his predecessors for engaging in fruitless wars in the region.
Officials say The position of the US military in the zone will remain unchanged during the next round of negotiations. It is possible that the US and Iran could disrupt a new ceasefire period, and possibly extend it a few times, without returning to full hostilities. But as Trump recently said in a revealing joke, a ceasefire in the Middle East could mean a shootout “in a more moderate way.”
Although Trump continues to promise a grand deal to bring peace to the region, he may be preparing the United States for Israel’s version “to cut the grass” strategy: constant military intervention to keep its enemies off balance, with no real end in sight. Unlike many Israelis, Americans — including Trump supporters — are likely to question why that’s worth their time.
