After more than five years in prison, Myanmar’s ousted president, Win Myint, was freed in April by the country’s new president: Min Aung Hlaing, a former commander-in-chief who took power in a 2021 coup and recently declared himself a civilian leader, at least in name.
The United Nations, the United States, and others had called for the release of Win Myint since he was detained during the revolution, as well as the release of former State Counselor Aung San Suu Kyi, who was instead transferred to house arrest. When her party, the National League for Democracy (NLD), was elected in 2015, Aung San Suu Kyi was constitutionally barred from serving as president. He elected Win Myint in 2018, after the former president resigned, and allowed him to effectively rule in his stead.
After more than five years in prison, Myanmar’s ousted president, Win Myint, was freed in April by the country’s new president: Min Aung Hlaing, a former commander-in-chief who took power in a 2021 coup and recently declared himself a civilian leader, at least in name.
The United Nations, the United States, and others had called for the release of Win Myint since he was detained during the revolution, as well as the release of former State Counselor Aung San Suu Kyi, who was instead transferred to house arrest. When her party, the National League for Democracy (NLD), was elected in 2015, Aung San Suu Kyi was constitutionally barred from serving as president. He elected Win Myint in 2018, after the former president resigned, and allowed him to effectively rule in his stead.
Although there was a time amid Myanmar’s civil war when the military regime appeared to be in a precarious position, this agreement may indicate that Min Aung Hlaing feels more secure than at any time since the revolution. The release of Win Myint followed a stupid election where the NLD was prevented from participating in the competition.
“I am very happy for President U Win Myint and his family. But I think he should not have been a prisoner of the army for one second,” said Sasa, a dissident who previously served as minister of international cooperation in a parallel government established by parliamentarians removed from power after the coup. Now he also questioned how Win Myint’s independence was real. “He will not be allowed to do what the people of Burma have elected him to do,” he said.
A pro-military party, the Union Solidarity and Development Party (USDP), won the government-scheduled election, which began on December 28 and ended on January 25. Major pro-democracy parties were not allowed to run, and voting was suspended in large parts of the country due to ongoing conflicts.
Min Aung Hlaing assumed his presidency in April, after receiving an overwhelming majority of votes from members of parliament—mostly representing the USDP or direct military appointees.
Once in office, Min Aung Hlaing seems to have succeeded in placing supporters in other key positions. The new commander in chief, Ye Win Oo; Vice President Nyo Saw; and the speaker of the upper house, Aung Lin Dwe, are all generals or retired generals who are long-time supporters of the ruling leader. Despite nominally dividing power, Min Aung Hlaing may rule as he has since the revolution: as a dictator.
“Ye Win Oo’s promotion was based on his past loyalty to Min Aung Hlaing, and his expected willingness to allow the new president to maintain control of the armed forces,” said Andrew Selth, an assistant professor at Griffith University and one of the leading scholars studying Myanmar’s military. he wrote when he came to power.
The new commander and vice president are both members of Min Aung Hlaing’s “inner circle,” said Richard Horsey, senior adviser on Myanmar at the International Crisis Group, adding that their rise is “a sign of his power and the lack of backtracking on his plans.”
Min Aung Hlaing has put himself at risk by formally removing the commander-in-chief—historically the most powerful role in Myanmar. But he was constrained by Myanmar’s 2008 military constitution, which stipulates that the president and the commander-in-chief cannot be the same person. This was not the case under the previous military dictatorship in Myanmar.
“However, since (Ye Win Oo and Nyo Saw) are in powerful positions with their own personal and institutional goals – especially the new commander-in-chief – there is no guarantee that they will remain loyal and loyal forever,” Horsey said.
It appears that the only major position not occupied by a close confidante of Min Aung Hlaing is the speaker of the lower house, which is now held by Khin Yi, a former brigadier general and head of the USDP. Despite the party’s close association with the military, the USDP has been reported to be confused and the leadership of Min Aung Hlaing. In the years after the revolution, the party he said more than 1,000 of its members were killed by pro-democracy rebel groups, while the initially overwhelmed army was unable to protect them.
Speaker is a powerful traditional role that sets Myanmar’s legislative agenda and can form special parliamentary committees, but how much power Khin Yi will have remains unclear.
The military justified its coup with false allegations of voter fraud during Myanmar’s 2020 elections, which the NLD won by a landslide. Min Aung Hlaing promised a new vote soon after taking power, but a massive protest movement and a successful armed uprising saw him repeatedly prolong the state of emergency instead.
It has been widely reported that China pushed for elections to finally be held in December last year, after intervening in the Myanmar conflict to help prevent the collapse of the regime. Beijing stepped up pressure on a coalition of armed ethnic groups that operate along Myanmar’s border with China to end their attacks on the military and cut off arms supplies to the broader pro-democracy movement.
There was hope among some analysts and diplomats that the election could lead to factionalism within the military establishment, opening the door for reform. But Min Aung Hlaing seems to be managing the election to promote his party. Moreover, China’s intervention to ensure the vote could go ahead also rendered the leader’s internal criticism — that he was losing on the battlefield and unable to protect lower-ranking members of his government — irrelevant.
Compared to the NLD days, the Overton window has not changed much as it is closed. “The open questions of Min Aung Hlaing’s leadership have gone silent, as a result of the strengthening of the military on the battlefield and the good diplomatic position of Naypyitaw, especially China,” Horsey said.
Horsey added that the release of Win Myint and the transfer of Aung San Suu Kyi are signs of “more confidence” in Min Aung Hlaing. “The military has always been reluctant to make concessions from a position of weakness, and the coup was specifically aimed at removing Aung San Suu Kyi and the NLD from the political arena,” he said.
Another indication of this belief is that Min Aung Hlaing officially relinquished control of the armed forces. It was long said that his former deputy commander-in-chief, Soe Win, was more of a rival than a supporter. But he managed to insert Soe Win into a seemingly ceremonial role in the council under the president’s authority.
Now comfortably seated as president, Min Aung Hlaing has made few concessions, perhaps hoping for a fresh start with a population that largely despises him. The moves could also be a boost to international backers such as China and Thailand, which have tried to bring the government out of diplomatic isolation.
Since China helped stabilize the government’s position, the military has done a great deal the release of prisonersalong with a blanket change of death sentences. Win Myint was pardoned shortly after the inauguration of Min Aung Hlaing, along with more than 4,000 other prisoners.
That attitude stands in contrast to that of the government when it was suffering heavy losses in the civil war. When the army began to lose ground to rebel groups in 2022, then-Cambodian Prime Minister Hun Sen—who at the time held the rotating presidency of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations—tried to give Min Aung Hlaing a lifeline. He said he would seek consent from the military in exchange for bringing Myanmar back from international isolation.
Instead of cooperating, Min Aung Hlaing executed four prisoners allegedly linked to the armed resistance, including a prominent activist and an elected member of parliament, angering pro-democracy forces and the international community. The latest agreement therefore may not represent a softening of the military’s hardline stance but rather a belief that the worst opposition is already behind it.
