Welcome to the South Asian Foreign Policy Brief.
Highlights this week: Pakistan remains in the midst of US mediation with Iran9 million people have been banned from the electoral roll shortly before elections in West Bengaland the finance minister of India flies International Monetary Fund-World Bank spring meetings.
What’s Next for Pakistan?
US-Iranian talks in Islamabad over the weekend did not produce a quick deal, but still led to a series of victories for the host, Pakistan.
One is confirmation. Critics doubted that Pakistan had the ability to mediate, but it managed to lead talks with senior US and Iranian officials—the highest-level face-to-face talks between the two sides in decades. They is reported he almost succeeded. Pakistan also played a role in defend for Vice President JD Vance to lead the US delegation.
Pakistan also got to develop a great reputation. The country does not have a positive international image, mainly because of its chronic problems with terrorism, and has long struggled to attract foreign investors and tourists. But in this case, it was in the headlines for good reason, and journalists around the world flocked to Islamabad.
Moreover, Pakistan has strengthened its strategic interests by projecting its power in the Middle East—certainly an area that is most important to its interests, given its many allies and large trade and energy imbalances there.
The lack of a deal so far is a stumbling block for Pakistan, which clearly wants the Iran war to end, given its proximity to the conflict and several million Pakistani immigrants living in the Middle East. Across Pakistan, from within the policy community to the wider public, hopes were high that an agreement would be reached by the end of the week. The results cast doubt on the national situation.
Failure to reach a deal also deprives Islamabad of a potentially important capability. If it helped end the war, Pakistan could go to its donors among the Gulf countries and make a case for loan debt relief (or at least refinancing) based on its important role.
This is no small matter: Pakistan needs external financing to ensure continued funding from the International Monetary Fund (IMF). Last week, Pakistan announced that it would do so to pay loan to the United Arab Emirates after the UAE refused to lower the interest rate. (Fortunately for Pakistan, Saudi Arabia and Qatar have succeeded he agreed provide $5 billion in new aid.)
All this said, Pakistan remains very much in the game. Axios information this week where Pakistan, along with Egypt and Turkey, continue to talk with the United States and Iran to try to reach an agreement. Pakistan Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif is present expected visiting Saudi Arabia and Turkey this week, perhaps discussing Iran.
On Wednesday, Pakistan Army Chief Asim Munir arrived in Tehran along with other Pakistani negotiators in an effort to support the US-Iran ceasefire, which is set to expire next week. Islamabad is a possible place for another round of talks – the choice of US President Donald Trump has been approved on Tuesday. But given Sharif’s travel schedule, that is unlikely to happen this week.
No matter where and when the talks may take place, Pakistan will have a prominent seat at the table. Pakistani officials are playing the long game. They have described last weekend’s talks as the first step in who they are brand The “Islamabad Process” – the possibility of admitting that it will take more than one summit meeting to get two distrustful opponents to reach an agreement.
Still, an important test is fast approaching. Pakistan and its fellow negotiators will be under pressure to convince the US and Iran to continue holding fire when the current deadline expires. That would buy more time for negotiations—and give Pakistan additional opportunities to demonstrate its authenticity as a key conflict mediator.
What we’re after
Voter list of West Bengal. Just before voters go to the polls, West Bengal—one out of four India’s states – which have elections this month – are facing a crisis. National reforms of the Election Commission of India have led 9 million people– more than 10 percent of the state’s population – will be removed from the electoral roll of West Bengal, sparking uproar.
The measure, allegedly aimed at reducing the number of ineligible voters, has increased anxiety among critics that New Delhi is exploiting the Election Commission changes to strengthen the electoral prospects of the Bharatiya Janata Party. A large part of the voters dropped out of the list are Muslimswho tend to vote for the Trinamool Congress party.
The Trinamool Congress has long ruled the state government, and West Bengal Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee—who has held office for nearly 15 years—is one of India’s Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s biggest rivals.
IMF-World Bank spring meetings. India’s Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman will skip this week’s IMF and World Bank spring meetings in Washington. is reported due to internal commitments. This is the third year in a row that Sitharaman has missed the event—which is surprising but makes sense from New Delhi’s perspective.
Because of India’s growing economy, the government does not feel compelled to send senior officials to Washington to meet with international donors. It is also a delicate time for India-US relations. But Sitharaman is not alone: A handful of finance ministers from South Asia have been confirmed in Washington this week.
The two sides are Muhammad Aurangzeb of Pakistan and Amir Khasru Mahmud Chowdhury of Bangladesh. Aurangzeb is the latest game in the spring meetings, while Amir Khasru represents the new government of Bangladesh. The finance minister of the region’s newest government—Nepal’s Swarnim Wagle, a former World Bank economist—will also stay home, however.
The housing crisis of South Asia. The latest Gallup World Poll, a survey of more than 140 countries, finds that South Asia has some of the cheapest housing in the world. Four countries in the region are ranked in the top 10: Sri Lanka (2), Bangladesh (5), India (6), and Nepal (8). 54 percent of Sri Lankans surveyed said they had difficulty paying for housing in the past year.
The poll results highlight some of the main challenges facing South Asian nations: poverty, urbanization, overcrowding, and a lack of basic infrastructure. It also hints at economic weakness across the region: Sri Lanka is still recovering from a major crisis in 2022, while Bangladesh and Nepal are dealing with major issues, due to a lack of hybrid shipping for brain drain.
Additional shocks – from the war in Ukraine and Iran to natural disasters– have hit these countries hard and increased the misery of the public, including their difficulty in affording housing.
Most Read FP This Week
Under the Radar
The Starlink service has been very successful in South Asia, and is available in Bhutan and Sri Lanka and is expected to be launched soon in India and Pakistan.
Bangladesh is a very interesting case. Starlink has been available in Bangladesh since May last year, with some of the lowest latency rates in Asia, referring to the time it takes for data to travel from device to server. (A low problem basically means a stable service.)
New report on Starlink in Bangladesh from monitoring company Ookla reports that underground stations across the country have reduced reliance on remote equipment and kept latency levels low.
However, despite the strong service, the report concludes that Starlink is not a popular choice for Bangladeshi consumers due to its high costs. This service costs around $50 a month in the country—compared to rates elsewhere in Asia—and Bangladesh’s GDP per capita is less than $4,000. This makes Starlink unaffordable for a large number of Bangladeshis.
Industry experts predict that consumers in Bangladesh will prefer to stick with existing broadband services, which may be slower than Starlink but are cheaper.
