Voters punished ruling parties around the world in 2024. They are doing it again now.
The same voters who mercilessly rejected their rulers on both sides of the Atlantic – ousting Britain’s Conservatives after 14 years in power and subjugating the Democrats in America – are now poised to deliver a landslide victory to the same leaders they elected two years ago.
British Prime Minister Keir Starmer faces the possibility of being ousted later this year if arch-rivals Manchester can win a single match. special parliamentary vote next week. President Donald Trump, on the brink of office until January 2029, appears to be struggling with lame duck status as Democrats ramp up their bid for midterms in November – especially in winning back the White House.
AndPOLITICO pollsuggests Western voters’ appetite for political bloodshed has not waned.
Building on previous work by Public First, a London-based survey firm, a new analysis of POLITICO’s May Poll results shows a large share of voters in the UK and US express a deep concern about politics and a constant desire for radical change – suggesting that the forces driving the opposition may still be strong, and that this year’s handshake may not be enough to quell them.
In America, 71 percent of adults say politicians only care about themselves, including 79 percent of those who supported former Vice President Kamala Harris in 2024 and 71 percent who voted for Trump. In Britain, voters are similarly angry at politicians, who they blame for failing to address a range of issues, including the cost of living and immigration.New results from the POLITICO Pollconducted over the weekend, shows 56 percent of British adults said the biggest problem with politics in the UK is politicians who don’t do the right thing, with just 15 percent blaming the system itself.
That discontent has led to persistent frustration with the incumbent in recent years. In Germany, Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s Social Democratic party had its own party the worst result in a national election in decadesand Canada Justin Trudeau resigned amid the anxiety of voters. Since last February, the rulers of Germany, Hungary, the Netherlands and the Czech Republic have been excluded from important elections.
England now look to a vote at Makerfield next week, which could decide whether Starmer can keep his job amid public anger over his handling of it.fallout from the Epstein scandaland voters’ concerns about immigration, the economy and law enforcement. If Andy Burnham, the mayor of Greater Manchester, is successfully re-elected to Parliament next week, it will surely set off a chain of events that could end in the ousting of the deeply unpopular Starmer as Labor leader – and prime minister.
The results could spill across the Atlantic as Republicans grapple with their political emotions ahead of the crucial November midterms in the United States.
“What we’re seeing is an Atlantic disconnect between voters and the electorate,” said Kevin Madden, a longtime GOP communications strategist in Washington and managing partner at Penta, a consulting firm.
“Voters in the United States are focused on domestic priorities and issues on the table such as food, health care and housing costs. So when the headlines focus on foreign conflicts and global market disruptions, those will intensify the cuts.”
Deep fandom in England poses problems for Starmer
In 2024, the administration’s rejection came amid frustration over the cost of living and broader economic concerns. Whether the opposition was a temporary response – or reflects dissatisfaction with the political establishment – is the question now confronting leaders on both sides of the Atlantic, as concerns about affordability continue to mount.
In the UK, analysis from Public First finds a strong sense of political disillusionment.The company initiated a series of measuresunderstanding that the feeling of “anti-politics”, and prejudices emerged: Voters who believe politicians are selfless, that political dialogue rarely leads to real action and that the public has little influence on what politicians do.
Almost half of UK adults – 45 per cent – scored high on the Public First anxiety scale; so do 37 percent of American adults.
The results underline the challenge facing Starmer. New POLITICO Poll results from last weekend show almost two-thirds of British adults – 64 per cent – said they did not think Starmer would remain prime minister until the next general election.
The centre-left British leader has suffered the biggest drop in popularity of any prime minister in British history. Since winning a landslide victory less than two years ago, Starmer has seen his Labor Party plummet in the polls, while Nigel Farage’s far-right British party is leading in polls and local elections, reflecting the success of opposition supporters across Europe.
Three-quarters of highly cynical voters in Britain have an unfavorable view of Starmer, POLITICO’s May First Public Poll analysis found – higher than the national average.
The Makerfield by-election on June 18 will decide whether Burnham, Starmer’s main local rival, is elected as Labour’s representative, giving him the chance to challenge Starmer for the party leadership and potentially succeed him as prime minister. Burnham’s main challenger in the by-election is the British Reform candidate – whose victory could devastate Burnham’s leadership, plunge Labor into unprecedented turmoil and send the national government into new chaos.
But Makerfield looks like it could be bad for Starmer, whoever wins. Either it will be Burnham, who will then go to London to try to oust the prime minister, or it will be Reform Britain – fueling claims that Starmer has poisoned his party beyond repair.
Why Trump should take a closer look
It’s a cautionary tale for Trump, the First Public study found.
As Starmer faces a drop in approval ratings, so do Trump’s numbershas come down– and a section of cynical Americans can be as dangerous to a president as their British counterpart is to a prime minister.
Among this group, 57 percent have an unfavorable view of Trump and his agenda, compared to 48 percent nationally.
That could pose a challenge for Republicans heading into the midterms. Elections in the US historically punish the party in power, and many Republicans are looking ahead to a tougher-than-expected midterm, fueled by growing economic worries and the unpopular war in Iran.
“The biggest shift in sentiment is happening among voters in the middle,” Madden said. “These are the same voters who moved to Trump and the GOP in 2024 because they had no expectations of Trump’s economy and rallied around a message focused on fighting inflation.”
Large shares of pessimistic Americans have a negative view of the economy. Among those surveyed, 52 percent say their financial situation has worsened since Trump took office in 2025 and 59 percent say Trump has spent more time focusing on international issues instead of domestic issues.
Trump, who came to power in 2024 in large part due to voter dissatisfaction with the economy during the Biden administration, now faces a similar challenge.Recent polling finds votersincreasingly blaming Trump for their financial pressures, even as he continues to blame his predecessor.
Part of the problem for incumbents is that many people blame politicians — not the broader system — for their discontent, which underscores the challenge for leaders as voters begin to turn against them. Almost half of British adults, 45 percent, say the country keeps changing prime ministers “because none of them are good,” while just 26 percent blame “big problems that even a good Prime Minister can’t solve.”
Once leaders are elected by a frustrated, disaffected electorate to turn things around — as Starmer and Trump were in 2024 — the clock starts ticking.
“Elections are often now about which candidate can channel the anger of the most irrational voters,” said Seb Wride, head of polling at Public First, a POLITICO polling partner.
“Republican and Democratic candidates should pay attention to what is happening in England,” he said. “It’s harder to win over an anti-political voter base when you represent ‘politics,’ and with the way Britain works so fast through Prime Ministers cynical voters seem more normal and less patient.”
About research
This article cites results from two editions of the POLITICO and Public First Polls.
The first was conducted from May 17 to 19, surveying 2,035 American adults online. Results were measured by age, race, gender, geography and educational attainment. The overall margin of sampling error is ±2.2 percentage points.
The second took place from June 7 to 9, surveying 2,008 UK adults online. The results were measured by parameters including age, gender and geography. The overall margin of sampling error is ±2.2 percentage points.
