The series of changes that befell the military government supported by Mali has tarnished Russia’s image as a guarantor of security in Africa and threatened its strategic and economic interests in the continent.
The military, which turned to Russia for support after ousting French and United Nations troops following coups in 2020 and 2021, was rocked over the weekend by attacks by al-Qaeda’s West African affiliate and a Tuareg-dominated separatist group.
Mali’s Russian-trained Minister of Defense, Sadio Camara, was killed in a suicide bombing, Russia’s Africa Corps was forced out of Kidal – a key town that Russian mercenaries helped capture in 2023 – and Moscow used helicopters and strategic bombers to contain the rebels.
Assimi Goita, the junta leader who was welcomed to the Kremlin last summer by President Vladimir Putin, survived. But now he faces the prospect of armed groups trying to seize a large swath of northern Mali desert amid Russian warnings that the rebels are regrouping.
The developments could pose a serious threat to Russia’s interests, political analysts say, and Moscow’s response has been closely watched abroad at a time when its forces are locked in fighting in Ukraine and its geopolitical influence is under pressure in other parts of the world.
“Mali is one of the centers of power for Russia in West Africa,” Irina Filatova, Honorary Research Fellow at the University of Cape Town, said.
