President Trump may have reached the limits of what he can achieve by bombing targets in Iran—he is now trying to use economic pressure to bring Tehran back to the negotiating table. After six weeks of US and Israeli forces failing to force Iran to surrender, and a marathon weekend of talks ending without an agreement, the US announced it would impose naval sanctions on Iran. The latest strategy shows how the war has shifted from Trump’s original—albeit confusing—goals. The main interest of the United States today is to enter the next round of negotiations with a clear advantage, by making the economic life of Iran as difficult as possible.
That is, to reach a peace agreement during the already announced ceasefire, the United States believes it needs to start a new kind of war, this time targeting Iran’s economy—which is heavily dependent on energy exports through the Strait of Hormuz.
Sanctions are the “worst option” after talks broke down in Islamabad last weekend, a former military official told us. Trump has repeatedly claimed victory in the war, but the regime continues to rule in Tehran and has used its control of the strait to impose huge economic costs on the world. Imposing sanctions would also draw the U.S. military into the conflict, potentially putting Navy ships face-to-face with Iranian or allied forces.
The outcome of the war may now be determined by whether the US or Iran blink first from the economic pain and return to the negotiating table for a deal. U.S. intelligence suggests that Iran may be more economically fragile than it lets on, and that the loss of oil revenue from the blockade could force its hand, U.S. officials told us. But regardless of who wins, there are already several clear losers. One is the rest of the world, which will suffer long-term economic pain as Washington and Tehran engage in sea-gazing. The second is Trump’s own reputation as a leader who has spent years calling the shots geopolitical by issuing the highest threats.
Trump has had little luck in recent weeks turning his headline-grabbing speech into a major victory on the world stage. Trump and JD Vance did a lot with a very visible effort to persuade Hungarian voters to support another term of Prime Minister Viktor Orbán, but could not prevent it fail loudly Trump’s partner in the election yesterday. The European allies, in response to Trump’s antics, have refused to go to war in Iran. And Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has so far not stopped his country’s war with Lebanon, Iran’s main demand, although he accepted Trump’s request to limit the attacks and engage in direct talks with Lebanon this week in Washington, DC.
Even Trump’s recent stomping Pope Leo XIV-which included posting a picture of Trump as Christ and the accusation that the head of the Roman Catholic Church was “WEAK on Crime” -was met with a papal receipt that includes how most leaders in the world seem to feel: “I am not afraid of the Trump administration.”
TThe blockade has been implemented todaybut neither the White House nor the Pentagon gave many details about how it will work. America’s allies and even officials within the military were struggling to understand the scope of Trump’s order and how it would affect shipping across the ocean and, by extension, the global economy.
The United States imposed what it called a naval “quarantine” against Cuba during the 1962 missile crisis. And the Trump administration blockaded Venezuela, targeting oil tankers, in the weeks before the arrest of President Nicolás Maduro in January. But Washington rarely uses that method, because it is considered an act of war under international law; it is difficult to implement, demanding troops and material; and it’s inherently dangerous, current and former military officials told us. Speaking on condition of anonymity to share sensitive details of the transaction, they explained what will be involved.
The formal blockade of the Strait of Hormuz that prevents Iranian ships and ships of any other nations from leaving Iranian ports for the Gulf of Oman and the Arabian Sea will begin with air power, officials told us. At least two aircraft carrier groups or land-based air forces will be tasked with providing protection to sea forces patrolling the waterway. P-8 Poseidon patrol planes would scout the water and attack targets at sea. E-2 Hawkeye radar planes would fly over the ship to detect threats and other aircraft. The US would also fill that gap with drones.
Controlling access points can take about a dozen destroyers and warships. These vessels, along with autonomous systems that do not require human navigation, can also be used for mining operations. Regional partners, including the United Arab Emirates, may also contribute to the effort.
Once a suspected Iranian ship attempted to breach the blockade, Marines or Navy SEALs would need to board the ship, arriving by helicopter or by small boat. One Cruise Unit, which can accommodate three members at any one time, is already nearby. But after the US military captured the Iranian ship, where would it go and who would protect it? This presupposes that the occupants of such a ship would obey US orders peacefully. What if Iran puts armed members of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps on its ships opposing the US operation? For more dangerous boarding operations, the military usually employs highly skilled Special Operations forces, but even then things can go wrong. In 2024, two SEALs died during a similar mission outside Somalia.
How can Iran respond to the blockade? The regime, as it did during the 39-day campaign led by the United States, could push back with asymmetric tactics—laying mines or launching drones and missiles. The attacks could target US naval forces and Persian Gulf allies, both on land and at sea. A single mine would not destroy an oil tanker but it could sink an American destroyer. The Iranians could also ask the Houthis in Yemen to harass commercial shipping in the Red Sea, something the group has done in the past, and block other routes.
In theory, the embargo would prevent Iran from exporting excess oil from its ports — a sharp shift from the Trump administration’s efforts earlier in the war to lower global oil prices by easing restrictions on Iran’s already seaborne supplies. Trump’s social media post announcing the blockade indicated that the United States would block any ship in international waters that had paid Iran to cross the strait. “No one who pays illegal taxes will have safe passage on the high seas,” he said on Community Truth. In the blockade of Venezuela, the US Navy followed the ship to the Indian Ocean. But the Supreme Command, which oversees military operations in the Middle East, has suggested it is pursuing a narrower mission aimed at blocking Iranian ports. The U.S. military is also beginning work to clear the area of Iranian mines—but how many are hidden in the sea remains unclear, making the effort even more dangerous.
Sanctions provide the US with an easy and compelling way to inflict economic damage while directly reducing civilian casualties. An air strike on a bridge or power station, unlike a barrier, causes damage that is not easily repaired. Retired Vice Admiral Kevin Donegan, who led US naval forces in the Middle East from 2015 to 2017, said the Navy has long intercepted ships suspected of carrying drugs or other illegal cargo from Iran, including weapons destined for allies in Yemen. American sailors, he said, could control the danger associated with unwitting crews and fire against ships from shore. “If your idea is to put pressure on Iran during negotiations, the blockade does that without having to restart the airstrikes,” he told us.
But even if the blockade succeeds, a return to pre-war shipping traffic and energy prices is still a long way off. Trump, in an interview yesterday with Fox News anchor Maria Bartiromo, said oil prices could drop by the midterm elections in November – or “it could be, or the same or maybe a little bit higher, but it should be about the same.”
Since the start of the conflict, trade has slowed to a trickle in the strait, through which a fifth of the world’s traded oil normally passes. Trump’s cease-fire nearly a week ago raised hopes that trade would soon resume. Now “that optimism has waned,” Chris Newton, an analyst at the International Crisis Group, told us. “If you take what Iran and the United States have said publicly, what you have is double sanctions, and nobody wants to go through that.”
The United States and Iran they may still return to their talks before the ceasefire expires next week. The 21-hour meetings in Islamabad did not bring success, but officials tell us that they did bring some inspiration. US officials described the second period – around 10 o’clock – as the point when the tension between the two sides eased and they began to listen to each other. The result was a framework that would allow for future talks, although one official admitted that the ceasefire could still end in an agreement or resume conflict.
The talks made progress on US demands that Tehran give up its nuclear weapons ambitions, the official told us without elaborating. But the friction over the thin continues. After all the command that the United States and Israel have left in their efforts to liberate Iran, the judgment of international markets may ultimately be negative.
At the same time, despite Trump’s threats and arguments, the United States may have to rely on other countries to find peace. Pakistan, Egypt and Turkey continue to try to restore the talks. The foreign minister of China, the main importer of Iranian oil today he urged other nations “unequivocally oppose any actions that undermine the ceasefire or escalate the conflict.” (Trump is scheduled to travel to Beijing next month for high-level talks, which have already been postponed once because of the war.) And Britain and France this week will host talks that are intended to create an international peacekeeping mission to restore freedom of navigation through the Strait of Hormuz.
