If you’re worried about American democracy, President Donald Trump’s primetime speech should give you hope.
This may seem strange at first. Trump’s speech was filled with lies, fabrications, and half-truths about the safety and security of America’s elections, all clearly designed to support his long-held belief that the system is rigged against him. The president claimed that China stole sensitive voter data, that the intelligence community hid the truth about Chinese interference from him, and that the US election was “left vulnerable to hacking and manipulation.”
These claims were almost perfect false, exaggerated, or misleading (for example: the data that China allegedly “stole” is true taken from publicly available voter files) The president, it seemed, was conducting intelligence to question the security of the US election – and, possibly, even to lay the groundwork for an attempt to deny the legitimacy of the midterms in 2026. That is, of course, a bad thing.
So, why does the speech bring hope? Because it was weak.
Trump’s claims were not only false, but a little surprising. He did not claim to have proof that the central laws would be stolen or even to have new evidence that 2020 was stolen from him. Later, one of Trump’s staffers admitted it no votes were changed in 2020, and his hand-picked CIA director denied allegations of fraud. Even if everything in Trump’s speech were true, it wouldn’t matter much, that’s why many conservatives they were not encouraged by the address. Even Fox News, which broadcast the speech live, it is specifically muted afterwards.
This is not the kind of thing that would be powerful in a campaign to overturn some of the world’s most protected elections. If this is what Trump is turning to, then it is certainly a sign of hope that the midterms will be free and fair.
Trump’s weakness is democracy’s strength
It is very much difficult steal the election in the United States.
In the US system, election management is primarily local and neutral, making it very difficult for any national party to coordinate a rigging campaign. Counting votes is open, with observers from all parties involved in the entire process. Imprintable stamps on paper ballots, security cameras, and checks all provide additional layers of security.
Perhaps for these reasons, every reputable study has found that voter fraud – including non-citizen voting – is extremely rare.
Also, for these reasons, it will be very difficult for Trump to use the power of the presidency to steal the 2026 midterms.
When Trump has they are governed or have politics many federal election authorities, their powers are limited. In order to change the vote count or prevent Democrats from voting, he would need to somehow nationalize election management or use the military to seize the ballots. He has no legal capacity to do something like this.
Stealing middle words in spite of lack of authority would require true defiance of law and truth. Trump could begin the process on Thursday; he could simply claim that the 2020 election was rigged and try to pressure a crony, like Acting Director of National Intelligence Bill Pulte, into fabricating “evidence” of his claims. Instead, he gave a small-ball, low-level address that relied on real intelligence to make misleading and low-key claims. Why?
Perhaps he realizes that the US military, intelligence agencies, and federal law enforcement are well-versed in the kind of law-breaking this would require. Perhaps he sees that he has a weak grip on Congress, where his previous election comes to the Senate hearings to prove it the new director of intelligence and attorney general. He may not trust his party to do more than play for him at the state or federal level; Republicans he showed very little interest for his speech, even if no one objected to it. He can take the federal court, which largely rejected his efforts to overturn the 2020 election and more recently the program of his administration get the state voter listwill not comply. Maybe he is afraid of the consequences of going too far. Or, maybe, he just doesn’t want to.
Regardless of the specific reasons, the speech fits the general pattern: Trump is simply unwilling or unable to assert bare, authoritarian control over the American political system. When he makes a step in that direction, as in ICE operation in Minneapolis or effort to silence Jimmy Kimmelhe always retreats in the face of opposition. Trump obviously wants to increase his unchecked power and steal the election in his favor, but there are lines he seems to be forced to. As long as he continues to act like this, the chances that he will be able to directly influence the midterm elections are very slim.
Now, this is not to say that American democracy is open. Trump will certainly try to stack the deck in his favor; in fact, he has already experienced Republican midterm redistricting campaigns. There is a a small-but-real space that abuse allows Republicans to retain Congress despite a massive public revolt against them, which could be a form of democratic crisis. And Trump appears, at least, to be reeling from a midterm loss — most likely by claiming fraud again and blaming congressional Republicans for not passing his demands. SAVE Law – in ways that will further undermine confidence in elections.
But the worst case scenario, the president demanding control by force and illegally over the administration of the election, seems less likely today than it was yesterday. And that is the reason for hope.
