Europe’s biggest trade show of the year is set to open this week under the backdrop of two wars, with the Pentagon facing doubts about whether it can meet its trillion-dollar budget cap and whether it will play well as NATO nations grow more confident about going it alone.
The show, which covers more than five million square feet – enough to fit 78 football fields or 1,350 Concordes stacked wing to wing – has been going on since the end of World War II and will launch deals worth billions of dollars. But with the US delaying arms sales and hanging on to more weapons, the feeling is in the air that US credibility – particularly its ability to define what it wants from Europe and meet demand – is on the line here at Farnborough.
“There’s no question that the main theme of this air show, last year’s air show, I’m sure next year’s air show, will be geographical issues and the Atlantic issue in particular, with a lot of concern about what it means on both sides,” said an American industry official. “Europe is far from unique. You have European countries that would absolutely love to pump gas to build an industrial base for organic defense. You have others that clearly want to continue buying American equipment.”
“We still argue that we make the best things in the world, and everyone wants them,” added the official, who, like others, did not want to be identified. “But the Europeans are worried if they can get it.”
Scar tissue: Even as senior European officials admit they will need America’s help in arming them, others resent the Trump administration’s suggestion that the continent not try to take over the role of the US defense industry – even as the Pentagon signals that it is withdrawing some US forces from Europe.
“The US is pushing the envelope by asking Europe to take a ‘primary role’ for its defense while rejecting industrial policy tools to do so,” said Oscar Jonsson, an expert from the Swedish Defense University. “Many European countries saw that buying the US would not change the trend of US withdrawal, and would prolong the period of excessive dependence on the US. It is unlikely that there will be a compromise with other Americans buying more, but it is only a slight delay in the structural change.”
